UK Weather - Spring 2017

[Simon Culling]

The mild theme has continued into early Spring with quite a bit of showery rainfall as well, some of which has included a few weak thunderstorms. This mild theme will continue for the rest of the current week, but a colder northerly flow looks like setting in after the weekend.

The CET for March up to the 5th was 6.2*C (+1.7*C) and the EWR was 19mm up to the 4th which is 26% of the monthly average of 74mm.

Sunday was a very convective and showery day over much of the UK and I encountered quite a few heavy rain and hail showers driving from the south coast up into the midlands in the afternoon and was able to snap the sunlit rear of one of the Cb's at Bicester not long before sunset.

[Simon Culling]

It has remained very mild over the last few days with some sunshine at times. The temperature reached 15.1*C at RAF Northolt yesterday (Weds 8th Mar) afternoon and we will see the mercury go a little higher today. Slightly cooler air will reach us by Sunday but it will remain on the mild side and also mostly dry for the next 7 days here in the south - high pressure over Europe will fend off the lows more to our NW thru this period.

An article on the Met Office Blog this month addresses the issue of long range forecasts and some rather sensational (and unfounded) headlines in recent editions of certain newspapers (term used loosely), but in the end it does not really tell us much. It just shows how difficult it still is to make worthwhile seasonal (i.e.3 months) forecasts at the moment despite the huge strides made for the shorter term versions.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/03/0 ... r-and-may/

[Simon Culling]

Yesterday (Weds 15th March) was the warmest day of the year so far with wall to wall sunshine over much of England and Wales. The temperature reached 18.8*C at Kew Gardens and 18.5*C at St James Park, both in London, and 18.6*C at Gravesend in Kent. I was in Southampton in the afternoon and the car thermometer was showing 16*C at 3:30pm with clear blue skies and warm sunshine, but driving back around to the other side of the Solent estuary later in the afternoon saw the reading fall from 14*C at 17:00 in Southampton to just 11*C in the village of Hythe by 17:30 despite the clear skies and sunshine persisting. Low cloud and thickening mist soon followed and it was foggy and just 8*C by 18:00 - sunset is around 18:15, so it was still reasonably light.

[Simon Culling]

It has been mild again this weekend and has reached 14/15*C both days in Southampton, where I have been staying, on the English south coast. Not too much sunshine and a fresh westerly breeze, but very pleasant for the time of year. However, the jet stream will be moving south in the coming week and we will see much cooler and wetter weather as low pressure begins to dominate. Higher ground will see some snowfall.

The CET for March up to the 18th was 8.1*C (+2.8*C) and the EWR up to the 17th was 37mm, which is exactly 50% of the monthly average. This disguises a dry south and much wetter NW of England.

[Richard]

Sounds typical spring Simon, up and down weather.

[Simon Culling]

Yes indeed Richard - Spring can bring all four seasons in one day sometimes! It was cooler and showery last week with some hail showers here in MK, but the snow was confined to the higher ground in northern England and Scotland. A high pressure is now centred over the UK (1035mb over N England) and we have 2 or 3 sunny days to look forward to although there is a bit of a nagging easterly breeze here in the south. The mercury should hit 15*C here on the south coast this afternoon - Saturday 25th.

The CET for March up to the 23rd was 8.1*C (+2.7*C), but the EWR seems to have got stuck on 37mm as we have had at least 5-10mm over England + Wales in the last week.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has been very mild and mostly dry here in the south east of the UK but much more unsettled further west and north - this is not an unusual scenario. Yesterday (Thurs 30th March) was a beautiful summerlike day with plenty of sunshine and a warm breeze from the south and the temperature reached 21*C here in Milton Keynes. It was the warmest day of the year so far with highs of:

22.1*C at Gravesend (E London)
21.7*C at Cambridge + London Heathrow
21.6*C at RAF Northolt
21.3*C at Holbeach (Lincolnshire).

The CET for March was 8.1*C (+2.6*C) up to the 28th and the EWR (now updating again) was 71mm up to the 27th, which is 96% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

It has remained mild and mostly dry in the south eastern half of the UK and we look set to get another burst of early season warmth this Sunday with a high of 23*C predicted for the London area. According to the Met Office, March was the equal warmest since the digital record started in 1910 for the more south eastern half of the UK, although much of the north west was similarly dry but not as warm. A thinnish swath from NE England to the far SW had a wet month making March perversely slightly wetter than average for the UK!

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/04/0 ... outh-east/

The final CET for March was 8.7*C (+3.0*C) and the EWR was 80mm which is 108% of the monthly average.

The CET for April is a remarkable 10.0*C (+3.7*C) up to the 4th and the EWR is just 2mm up to the 3rd, which is 3% of the monthly average of 62mm.

Snapped this lovely view from the A34 trunk road last Sunday (2nd April) of a rapeseed oil field on the Berkshire Downs. It was warm and sunny at 15^C at the time (around 6pm). There has been a big increase in rapeseed oil production in the UK in recent years and the rich yellow fields are now a common sight by early summer. The oil is now being used in cooking as a substitute for olive oil.

[Orion]

That would be quite a pleasant spring evening temperature, Simon.

[Simon Culling]

Indeed Orion, we would expect more like 8-10*C at this time of day in early April. The fine and warm weather has continued for much of the UK with sunny days on both Thursday + Friday and pleasant daytime temperatures after a nip of frost in places overnight. The mercury hit 19*C in and around London yesterday (Friday) afternoon but will push past 20*C today and 23-24*C on Sunday as the sunny weather continues. However, the wind will shift from the south to north west on Monday heralding a cloudier and much cooler week ahead, although not much rain in the offing. I would imagine that is waiting for the Easter four day holiday next weekend!

EDIT: I forgot to add this blog entry from one of the leading private weather companies in the UK (Netweather) who are going for a 25*C max in the SE tomorrow (Sun 9th Apr):

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... ign=social

[Simon Culling]

The temperature duly reached 25*C today (Sunday 9th April) and this was probably the earliest such maximum in the UK since 1968. The warmth was centred on the SE half of the UK (where there was wall to wall sunshine) with max temps of:

25.5*C at Cambridge NIAB
25.4*C at London Heathrow
25.2*C at RAF Northolt
25.1*C at Holbeach (Lincolnshire)
25.0*C at St James Park

This compares to a much cooler western side - maxes of just 13.1*C at Camborne (Cornwall), 12.4*C at RAF Valley (on Anglesey, NW Wales) and 10.3*C at Tiree (Western Isles). A cold front is moving SE tonight and Monday will be a lot cooler (and cloudier) with max temps some 10*C lower than those on Sunday.

[Simon Culling]

The predominently dry weather has continued over much of England and Wales although it has been a little cooler this week with winds more from the north west. Monday (10th April) was indeed much colder than the Sunday with many places recording a maximum temperature at least 10*C lower. For example, Thurleigh (near Bedford) recorded 24.2*C as a maximum on the Sunday, but only 13.4*C (10.8*C lower) and Holbeach (in Lincolnshire) recorded 25.1*C and 12.6^C respectively for a fall of 12.5*C between the two days.

Looking forward 5-7 days again gives predominently dry weather for the south of the UK with the temperatures picking up a bit next week - and with some sunshine!

The CET for April was still 9.7*C (+2.9*C) up to the 13th and the EWR was only 2mm up to the 12th, which is only 3% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

It has been cooler in the last week but still predominantly dry here in the south of the UK. High pressure has remained close to the UK but more to our west so the winds have been from the north west. This pattern will persist into next week with a late season arctic plunge of air from Monday with sleet and snow showers possible even in the more southern parts of the UK. Frost will also be a concern for fruit and plant growers. These late spring northerly outbreaks can bring some surprising weather for the end of April or beginning of May with some places getting a brief cover of snow.

The April CET was 9.4*C (+2.1*C) up to the 20th and the EWR was just 8mm which is only 13% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

We have had a run of cold days and nights for the time of year with northerly winds bringing air direct from the Arctic. Daytime warming has lifted the mercury to near 10*C in the sunshine, but this falls rapidly in the showers, many of which have had soft hail and some sleet and snow. There was a very sharp frost this morning (Thurs 27th April) with the ground minimum falling to -6*C to -9*C at quite a few stations in the southern half of England and Wales. Lowest air minimums I could find were:

-5.6^C at Sennybridge (in the Brecon Beacons, Powys)
-4.6*C at RAF Benson (Oxfordshire)
-3.6*C at Santon Downham (Suffolk) + Pershore (Worcs)
-3.4*C at Woburn (Bedfordshire)
-3.2*C at Bournemouth Airport (Dorset - on the south coast)

These are the usual cold spots, but most sites had a slight air frost - even where I am at the moment in the village of Hythe which is very close to the coast and the Isle of Wight.

It will warm up slowly over the next few days with some rain this weekend (its a Bank Holiday!) and next week we could be seeing 20*C+ by midweek.

[Simon Culling]

The warming trend has not progressed far as the high pressure has persisted to our north and we now have north east or easterly winds and rather a lot of cloud. A few showers have developed today with an active thunderstorm in progress over the city of Bristol at the moment (4pm). The rather cool and cloudy weather will continue here in the south and east with daytime temperatures of 13-15*C, but as is usual in Spring under these synoptic conditions, the north west of Scotland gets very sunny and often warm weather - the Scottish mountains break up the cloud on the west coast and they benefit from a local foehn wind. The temeperature has reached 20*C today (1st May) on the Isle of Skye in unbroken sunshine.

The CET for April was 9.1*C (+1.3*C) up to the 28th and the EWR was just 15mm up to the 28th which is only 24% of the monthly average. However, there was quite a lot of rain in SW England (20-40mm) on the last rainfall day of the month so this total will rise a bit.

[Simon Culling]

We are stuck in a flow of north easterly winds in the south of the UK and this is giving us cloudy and cool weather - what most would typecast as our normality. With high pressure anchored to our north this will continue for a few more days, but it is bringing sunny and warm weather to the NW of England and much of western Scotland. This better weather is also being enjoyed in the west of Ireland. Yesterday (Weds 3rd May) this sunshine gave a maximum temperature of 20.2*C at Achnagart in the NW Highlands, but a dull and cloudy day at Wych Cross (Surrey) where the mercury only reached 9.2*C - with a nagging NE wind as well.

The final CET for April was 8.9*C which is 1.0*C above the average - it was only 0.2*C warmer than March which was a very warm month. The final EWR for April was only 19mm, which is just 31% of the average.

There are concerns that the relative dryness of recent months will cause water issues later in the summer, but we do tend to exaggerate these matters. An interesting blog on the dryness of April:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... 8144;sess=

[Simon Culling]

High pressure has persisted to our NW giving lovely sunny weather to western parts (and Eire), but mostly cloudy and cooler weather to eastern and more central parts of both England + Scotland. For example, today (Sunday 7th May) 21*C was recorded in N Ireland, Eire, western Scotland and parts of the English west Midlands where it was sunny all day. It was cold and cloudy on the east coast with max temps around 8-10*C - so the mixed fortunes persist as does the dry weather.

The CET for May was 11.1*C (+1.3*C) up to the 6th and the EWR was just 1mm up to the 5th, which is 2% of the monthly average of 65mm.

Looking forward it looks to remain dry with the best of the sunshine (and temperatures) still out west, but overall not bad for this time of year. The models are becoming keener on some rain late in the coming week with the hint of a plume and a few storms.

[Simon Culling]

The skies cleared yesterday leaving a clear night over much of the UK and this resulted in a late radiation frost to many rural areas, The lowest temperatures I could find were (for the moring of Weds 10th May):

-3.1*C at South Newington (Oxon)
-2.8*C at RAF Benson (Oxon)
-2.5*C at Sennybridge (Powys, Wales)
-1.8*C at Santon Downham (Norfolk)
-1.7*C at Woburn (Bedfordshire)

On the grass, -7*C was recorded at RAF Benson and -6*C at both Marham (Norfolk) + Holbeach (Lincs).

The weather is now on a warming trend and with the humidty increasing as we develop a more southerly flow tomorrow, a few showers and thunderstorms are likely, although any rainfall will be rather hit and miss.

[Simon Culling]

It has been a little warmer in the last few days and we have finally had some rain, mostly in ther form of thundery showers - indeed there was a small tornado in Stapleford, Nottingham on Friday evening which caused a small amount of property damage. There has been much talk in the media in the last few weeks of an impending drought and on cue the weather has now decided to change and it looks like becoming a lot more unsettled in the next few days. It is true that rainfall has been below average for over 6 months for much of the UK and there are cracks visible in many of our lawns, but the resevoirs and rivers are certainly not at low levels. However, if we do have a dry and warm summer, then the situation will be different by Aug/Sept. Recent summers suggest this is unlikely!!!

The CET for May was 11.0*C (+0.6*C) up to the 12th and the EWR was only 6mm (also up to the 12th) which is just 9% of the monthly average. The latter will rise quite a bit this week.

EDIT - models are now predicting up to 30-50mm for Weds/Thurs in the SE half of the UK - principally SE England (incl London) and East Anglia.

[Manukau heads obs]

I hear that Nth Ireland is very dry

[Simon Culling]

With a front straddling the country for the last couple of days we have seen some contrasting weather. Central parts (north to south speaking) have seen the cloud and rain, but the SE corner has been in the warmer southerlies ahead of the front and have managed 25*C on both Wednesday and Thursday where the sun put in an appearance. Yesterday (Thurs 17th May) a pulse of heavier rain moved NE up the front and gave 20-40mm to many parts of England and this is much needed rain.

Brain, Northern Ireland has been dry like much of the UK with something like 70-80% of the normal rainfall in the last 10 months. April and May have been the driest with quite a few gorse and heath fires as a result - many though are probably arson. See the BBC clip from a week or so ago:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39843595

[Orion]

From that BBC article:
"At least 80% of the 302 gorse fires in Northern Ireland over the weekend were started deliberately, fire officials say.
There have been 498 gorse fires across the region since the start of May..."

Astounding, and very disheartening

[Simon Culling]

Hello Orion, it is dissappointing to read that so many of the fires appear to have been started deliberately. None of the published articles have speculated on the reasons for this apparant arson, so I am not sure whether it is connected to the 'troubles' or not. The good news is that there has been some rain in recent days and this has reduced the fire risk in most areas.

After weekend showers the weather has quietened down for the new working week and we have increasing sunshine and higher temperatures on the way - possibly up to 30*C in the SE by Saturday - and then the inevitable thundery breakdown as the first plume of the summer destablises. Its a long way off yet, but the models are quite keen on it at the moment.

The CET for May was 11.8*C (+1.0*C) up to the 21st and the EWR was 25mm up to the 21st, which is 38% of the montly total. The latter figure appears low as no rainfall is shown for the period 18-20th May when 30mm+ fell over a significant area of England.

EDIT: The temperature hit 25*C in the London area yesterday (22nd) with plenty of sunshine.

[Simon Culling]

It is warming up here in the UK under a SE to E flow which will veer to more S-SE tomorrow. Today (Thurs 25th May) the highest temperatures were in western parts and particularly in areas to the lee of high ground such as NW England, N Wales and the highlands of Scotland. Under mostly sunny skies the mercury reached:

28.0*C at Aboyne (Scottish Highands)
27.6*C at Crosby (near Liverpool) and Hawarden (N Wales)
27.2*C at Bristol Filton Airport
27.0*C at Aviemore (Scottish Highlands), Pershore + London Heathrow.

It will be hotter still tomorrow with perhaps 28-30*C in these same areas which is close to the national records for May. The England record of 32.8*C set at Regents Park (London) on 29th May 1944 looks safe.

[Simon Culling]

Friday 26th May was a warm day across the UK with the highest temperatures again in more northern and western areas as we continue to have a SE feed off the continent. The highest temperatures were:

29.4*C at RAF Lossiemouth (on the Moray Firth, NE Scotland)
28.9*C at Portmadog (NW Wales coast)
28.6*C at Blackpool Airport
28.2*C at Crosby (nr Liverpool) + Hawarden (nr Chester + just over the border in Wales)
27.8*C at Altnaharra (far N Scotland) + London Heathrow Airport (SE just got into table!)

Today (Saturday 27th May) turned cooler slowly from the SW but it still reached 27*C in the east. The change came behind a band of elevated thunderstorms which reached the far SW in the early hours and culminated in some quite strong surface based storms over N England + S Scotland in the afternoon + evening with hail up to 20mm in places. The attached figures shows that we had in excess of 80,000 lightning strikes today.