General April Weather
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Re: General April Weather
A bit of rain here today. Light variant winds for much of the day.
Waiting for the storm to arrive
Waiting for the storm to arrive
JohnGaul
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Re: General April Weather
Blimey mid late next week the mid to lower South Island could get some insane winds if GFS eventuates, a long shot at this stage but very interesting for sure.
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Re: General April Weather
Just when you think surely this pattern of regular deluges can't keep going on... modelling is showing the possibility of some more heavy rainfall next week. Will be interesting to see what happens - still a lot of variability between model runs
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General April Weather
Crazy huh? I've been watching it and yea quite variable from run to run but more often than not the gfs runs have been for lots of rain than just a small/normal amount.David wrote:Just when you think surely this pattern of regular deluges can't keep going on... modelling is showing the possibility of some more heavy rainfall next week. Will be interesting to see what happens - still a lot of variability between model runs
This pattern reminds me so much of Feb 2004 pattern. Low after low from the NW delivering lots of rain.
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Re: General April Weather
How insane would these wind speeds be? We certainly don't need anymore rain next week. Certainly over the surface flooding we had down this way today.Tornado Tim wrote:Blimey mid late next week the mid to lower South Island could get some insane winds if GFS eventuates, a long shot at this stage but very interesting for sure.
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Re: General April Weather
European has a TC near New Caledonia next week. Tuesdays chart.
A trough in the Tasman which may become more polar for Easter in extended outlook.
A trough in the Tasman which may become more polar for Easter in extended outlook.
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Re: General April Weather
NZstorm wrote:European has a TC near New Caledonia next week. Tuesdays chart.
A trough in the Tasman which may become more polar for Easter in extended outlook.
Check out the models! GFS and the ACCESS model both going for 100+ mm over the NI next week
GFS shows a another tasman low approaching but then getting a massive moisture injection from a TC moving down from Fiji way, colliding over the NI.
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Re: General April Weather
Just saw that too. This projection is from the MetVUW site. Early days yet but this really would not be good for much of the North Island if it eventuates, especially after what happened this week.
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Re: General April Weather
Sea temperature chart. This is absolute sea temperature, not anomalies. Looks like a tongue of unusually warm water has swept down past Tasmania and also a much smaller one past Hawke Bay. May be having an effect on weather systems
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Re: General April Weather
Hey cbm, if you got that off SwellMap/WeatherMap, the data is derived from Model data which MetOcean runs.cbm wrote:Sea temperature chart. This is absolute sea temperature, not anomalies. Looks like a tongue of unusually warm water has swept down past Tasmania and also a much smaller one past Hawke Bay. May be having an effect on weather systems
Its what the model thinks the absolute SST is.
The real SST as observed by Satellite is attached, you'll notice its somewhat different but broader patterns are the same.
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Re: General April Weather
Cool, thanks. Yes, was from SwellMap. Best free source of such data I know of. I've since read that the East Australian current does sometimes bring warm water down past the East of Tasmania so not unprecedented. However do find it surprising how warm the water is now, given all the discussions that were had about how cold it was, during “Summer proper”.Tornado Tim wrote:Hey cbm, if you got that off SwellMap/WeatherMap, the data is derived from Model data which MetOcean runs.cbm wrote:Sea temperature chart. This is absolute sea temperature, not anomalies. Looks like a tongue of unusually warm water has swept down past Tasmania and also a much smaller one past Hawke Bay. May be having an effect on weather systems
Its what the model thinks the absolute SST is.
The real SST as observed by Satellite is attached, you'll notice its somewhat different but broader patterns are the same.
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Re: General April Weather
The storms we are having now and in the next week will cool the surface off again later in the month.cbm wrote: However do find it surprising how warm the water is now, given all the discussions that were had about how cold it was, during “Summer proper”.
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Re: General April Weather
Jet stream and subtropical moisture affecting NZ next week. The combo always ends up in a deluge somewhere.
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Re: General April Weather
Does anyone know what model the Metservice uses for its rain forecasts because their current severe weather warning map for heavy rain for the north and South Island next week looks almost identical to GFS and its rainfall forecast map?
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Re: General April Weather
For future reference...
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Re: General April Weather
Latest run of GFS looking grim with winds gusting over 120kmh over a large portion of the north and South Island and minimum pressure of around 987hpa on Thursday/Friday next week, this could be catastrophic with both rainfall and wind gusts...
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General April Weather
The good thing is as with tropical cyclones, they do their own thing and can be hard to predict.Bradley wrote:Latest run of GFS looking grim with winds gusting over 120kmh over a large portion of the north and South Island and minimum pressure of around 987hpa on Thursday/Friday next week, this could be catastrophic with both rainfall and wind gusts...
The models veered away from this scenario yesterday but have jumped back to it this afternoon. That will no doubt keep happening right up to the days before the event.
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Re: General April Weather
+ Nice fine day here. Able to mow the lawns. Some mushrooms around
why didn't we get this rain in January, when we were trying to sell this property????
Anyway, interesting to see which way Cook will go later on this week?
why didn't we get this rain in January, when we were trying to sell this property????
Anyway, interesting to see which way Cook will go later on this week?
JohnGaul
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Re: General April Weather
Beautiful day here.
Went for a walk around 6:20pm, observed silvery moon (around 96% full) above the eastern horizon and bright-pink sunset clouds in the west, very pretty
Went for a walk around 6:20pm, observed silvery moon (around 96% full) above the eastern horizon and bright-pink sunset clouds in the west, very pretty
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Re: General April Weather
Unfortunately a lot of high cloud over Auckland today. Max 21C.
Long range models suggest some colder unstable air over the NI for easter. Something to watch.
Long range models suggest some colder unstable air over the NI for easter. Something to watch.
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Re: General April Weather
A large pine has collapsed recently in the local reserve following the series of heavy rain events over the last month or so. Was quite a surprise to see that given it hasn't been windy recently.
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Re: General April Weather
Puzzling, David - I wonder if it's been undermined somehow by storm-water runoff? or had its shallow rooting-system cut?
Must've come down with a whoomph!
Must've come down with a whoomph!
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Re: General April Weather
I noticed it's been on a lean for quite a while. It was standing at the top of a steep bank, and I suspect that with each deluge flowing water gradually undermined part of the root system until it just couldn't support it's own weight anymore.Orion wrote:Puzzling, David - I wonder if it's been undermined somehow by storm-water runoff? or had its shallow rooting-system cut?
Must've come down with a whoomph!
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Re: General April Weather
Something went wrong with the Hamilton AWS rain gauge on the 12th, nothing was recorded when there was widespread 50mm+ that day.