Tasman Low and Ex-TC Cook - Apr 12-14

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 08/04/2017 17:47

Models have been in agreement for a few days now of a Tasman Sea Low heading towards NZ for the 12th April onwards. A tropical cyclone (or ex tropical cyclone) is also forecast to hit northern NZ late Thursday afternoon (13th April).

An interesting time, and certainly one to watch in the recently soaked parts of the north, another good dumping is sure to create some issues. Of course winds could also be an issue in the north. Thoughts?

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 08/04/2017 18:05

I reckon wind will be an issue in both islands, if we are to trust GFS then this could be severe to say the least - EC not keen at all on a bomb though quite confident on heavy rain for Canterbury without the wind...

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 08/04/2017 18:16

Bradley wrote:I reckon wind will be an issue in both islands, if we are to trust GFS then this could be severe to say the least - EC not keen at all on a bomb though quite confident on heavy rain for Canterbury without the wind...

I think the main area for wind is around the cyclonic system in the north... gusty but not severe in the south?

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 08/04/2017 18:54

I'm thinking winds could be an issue for the South Island too if this forecast comes off...

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 08/04/2017 19:06

Bradley wrote:I'm thinking winds could be an issue for the South Island too if this forecast comes off...

Can't argue with that haha

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 08/04/2017 21:43

Actually quite worried about this. Its almost Giselle/ Wahine storm like. Latest models have bought the action a day forward too?

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 08/04/2017 23:03

People need plenty of warning, thankfully the whole idea of a cyclone is fresh in peoples minds. Hopefully metservice start mentioning the danger soon.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 08/04/2017 23:16

Manukau heads obs · Sun 09/04/2017 06:22

TC Cook I see it is named now

James · Unread post by **James** » Sun 09/04/2017 08:26

Ominous.... watch out Young Nick's Head!

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 09/04/2017 10:30

GFS ensembles from http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#16P

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 09/04/2017 14:12

Some crazy rain numbers showing up in the Bay of Plenty in the latest GFS, e.g. 400mm in 12 hours at Matata

(graphic from Windfinder)

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 09/04/2017 19:23

Looks to be a stalled front in the BOP Wednesday/Thursday. Not good news for them.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 10/04/2017 06:12

oh, wow, TC Cook really fired up overnight now and is moving SSW quickly now..even the cloud sheet to its south in the north tasman is now moving south
one to watch re rain for NZ alright

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 10/04/2017 06:36

This morning GFS has continued to push it further east. Now missing the NI. ACCESS has brought it west tho. I don't know how to find ECMWF rainfall. UKMET now has it not reaching us at all but still feeding moisture into the stalled front.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 10/04/2017 06:57

you can't lock in any model run yet

and yet people have been posting up or publishing (e.g WW) shots of model runs like they are set in concrete and like, this is how its going to look 5 days from now

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 10/04/2017 08:18

Latest Euro has a 976mb low in the eastern BOP late Thursday.
Ukmet showing no low.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 10/04/2017 12:44

NZstorm wrote:Latest Euro has a 976mb low in the eastern BOP late Thursday.
Ukmet showing no low.

I dont know where you got the UKMET model information from but, the ensemble members of that model on its 12Z run are suggesting there is still an intact low pressure system.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Mon 10/04/2017 13:20

I have observed some very striking cloud-patterns high aloft today - ranks of chevrons, flourishes of swirly clouds, elegant mares' tails

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 10/04/2017 15:39

Latest GFS run has dragged Cook and/or his remnants slighty west across the East Cape now and then spinning down the eastern seaboard to lie off Canterbury. I guess confidence will firm up on the path more over the next day or so.

Either way theres a mucky few days weather ahead and I would be holding off any Easter tramping/ camping plans for a couple of days!

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Mon 10/04/2017 15:41

Yep latest run look interesting to say the least - lets hope it doesn't come off as it could be quite serious if this path holds true...

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Mon 10/04/2017 16:02

Interesting/concerning to see the infamous Cyclone Gisele showing up in the analogs. It tracked down the Waiarapa coast presumably due to land interaction. As has been said however the models are going to keep swinging around right up until hours before arrival.

16P_analogs_latest.png

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 10/04/2017 17:30

Tornado Tim wrote: I dont know where you got the UKMET model information from but, the ensemble members of that model on its 12Z run are suggesting there is still an intact low pressure system.

Thanks for that update Tim.

The 00Z run of the UKmet now showing the ex cyclone near East Cape Friday.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 10/04/2017 18:48

GFS still showing a major soaking for BOP. Whakatane & Rotorua 400+ mm in the most recent model run.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 11/04/2017 10:27

I see there is a weather warning out for Auckland tomorrow, Metservice expecting 80-100mm. Certainly not what GFS is showing (~ 20mm or so)

NZ Weather Forum

Tasman Low and Ex-TC Cook - Apr 12-14

Tasman Low and Ex-TC Cook - Apr 12-14

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April

Re: Tasman Sea Low and Tropical Cyclone - 12th April