General May Weather

[NZstorm]

31mm here and I see Ricky got about 30mm.

[mikestormchaser]

Certainly looking pretty cold this coming weekend. Snow to 300m on BP and inland Canterbury foot hills I'd say. Wintry showers elsewhere. I do get the feeling this year the plains and city will get a snowfall though during the winter months. June or July period

[Bradley]

Tony is certainly thinking along those lines though of course he can't guarantee anything

[mikestormchaser]

Tony is certainly thinking along those lines though of course he can't guarantee anything

Just the active deep lows that continue to keep developing. The ocean is definitely active. August however has seen some of the biggest snowfalls though. But yeah june/ July best chance

[Bradley]

And right on cue here comes the sensationalist 'snow to sea level in Canterbury' claims on social media

[Razor]

And right on cue here comes the sensationalist 'snow to sea level in Canterbury' claims on social media

Where? Haven't spotted that. Saw one suggesting it on the Port Hills, but not to sea level. Not that I've looked very hard. Not that it matters to me, we all know the trappings of social media, not worth falling to deep down the rabbit hole

[Bradley]

I was referring to comments from some people who think snow flurries in Christchurch city (not port hills) as possible, some of the forecast wordings are deliberately vague too, gets people's hopes up in the city of some white stuff!

[melja]

"Snow showers could drop to around 200m overnight Friday, yes that’s the Port Hills, with sleety falls overnight to around sea-level!"

This from a Canterbury forecaster so yeah the hype has started for another winter it seems.

[Orion]

^^^ Avoid the "sensational" sites: simple

The day has gone very dull and overcast here in the past hour or so.

[Manukau heads obs]

21c here this afternoon with lots of sun
nice
re the incoming cold air, has it got time to dig up enough cold air?
also sea temperatures above normal in the south tasman sea and all the way into the southern ocean, that might need to be taken into account

[TonyT]

In my opinion its unusual to get snow below about 200m in Canterbury in a genuinely southwest airflow, no matter how cold it gets. Southland and Otago often get pasted, but anyone north of about Oamaru is often "let down". Just saying...

[NZstorm]

In my opinion its unusual to get snow below about 200m in Canterbury in a genuinely southwest airflow, no matter how cold it gets. Southland and Otago often get pasted, but anyone north of about Oamaru is often "let down". Just saying...

There is a critical SW situation for Dunedin as well. Southwesters can easily underperform.

Hopefully this event will set the Queenstown ski fields up with 30-40cm possible up on the slopes.

[Dean.]

A couple of brief southwest surges then some coastal activity...doesn't look much.Tonight is the best chance for snow on the Canterbury skifields.

[Manukau heads obs]

I see Taranaki getting a good thunderstorm (again) now

[mikestormchaser]

In my opinion its unusual to get snow below about 200m in Canterbury in a genuinely southwest airflow, no matter how cold it gets. Southland and Otago often get pasted, but anyone north of about Oamaru is often "let down". Just saying...

I agree. SW weather patterns for Canterbury " witch is often" doesn't really play out well. I always keep an eye out for events when there's just really cold air sitting around.. 920mb 850mb and those nice lows that hover down and you expect alot of moisture with it. Usually the winds are light at the surface to. Those types of events you sometimes see Metservice only rush out warnings a day before hand.

[Manukau heads obs]

there is some good disturbed looking CB clouds in the southern ocean that are going to get dragged up

[shovelopikis]

I see Taranaki getting a good thunderstorm (again) now

Getting good distant flashes...wind is too high to hear.

[spwill]

South of Balclutha is in the firing line on a southwesterly, north of there precipitation is usually weakening as it moves north, precipitation can be very weak when it reaches Dunedin.
edit, Qtwn tends to catch it on southwesterly but is more sheltered when the flow goes southerly.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I agree. You don't get much snow with a SW.
In West Melton, you get the snow with a southerly or SE, but the wind direction was usually from the WSW or SW forsome apparent reason.

[tich]

Banks Peninsula's more likely to get snow in a southwesterly, often when it's fine and sunny in Chch (but with a biting wind)

[melja]

Some good rain here in Rangiora. 11mm yesterday and 7mm so far today.

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[NZstorm]

Banks Peninsula's more likely to get snow in a southwesterly, often when it's fine and sunny in Chch (but with a biting wind)

GFS forecast sounding for Banks Peninsula on Saturday 9am. Thats cold enough for snow flakes to be observed down to sea level.

There often is a bit of lightning over the warmer seas with these cold events too.

[Bradley]

With a freezing level that isn't any lower then 700m in a non-warm advective scenario I will be very surprised to snow to sea level in Canterbury

[Manukau heads obs]

if chain showers can come ashore (might just instead hit banks peninsular) and they are convective enough to break up the marine layer, then maybe

[Bradley]

Yep Banks Peninsula definately the best spot for sea level snow on Friday night and Saturday morning...