Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

GFS bringing the remaining low further west, to be more direct onto the NI now, yes?
now that the LLCC is easier to see, it a bit further west than might have been factored in, and is moving SSE...straight towards the NI
if it deepens as much as some of the models suggest, which it could do , with the strong jet stream and baroclinic zone, then could cause problems!
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by NZstorm »

European now has the low over Northland 00Z Friday 990hpa.
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Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by jamie »

MetService now showing 130mm for Hamilton!
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wow, the heavy rain band currently over the Auckland rain radar suddenly blocks out the signal, making the rain to the west look alot lighter...check out the latest animation :)
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking like severe weather will track across Northland early tomorrow morning and down onto Coromandel and then toward eastern BOP. Torrential rain/possible severe wind gusts/possible thunder.

While Auckland will miss the heaviest precip, a downpour still possible.
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by spwill »

I notice the Ak temperature has been slowly rising, currently 18.5C and rather humid. GFS has the dps staying up overnight so a warm night on the way, 17 or 18C min for Auckland.

Numbers in the GFS point to thunder for eastern Northland tomorrow morning. I see there are thunderstorms showing up north of Northland this evening.
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Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by jamie »

Rain at times is near torrential however rain radar shows nothing more than moderate.
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

sometimes if its very heavy near the rain radar site, it means it cant penetrate (the beam)
51mm here overnight, was very heavy around 11pm :)
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by David »

Only 42mm here so far - thought we'd get more. Was pretty heavy earlier, had 17mm in an hour.
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by NZstorm »

Current temp is 19C so it was a warm night.
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

only 15c here with a southerly wind
more rain moving in
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

barometer is 1000 hpa here
which makes this low , a bit lower pressure than modelled by this time
and the barometer is dropping steadily
could be some good SE gales develop across central NI/Taranaki
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Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by jamie »

Manukau heads obs wrote:only 15c here with a southerly wind
more rain moving in
Yea the temp plummeted when it went southerly in the night. Dropped a good 5 degrees suddenly.
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Nev »

Just 24mm here in the last 24 hrs so far…
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

that's a nice active CB east of northland
I wonder if it will impact the BOP/east cape
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the BOM (access) model was spot on
thats a real clash of air masses over northland
SSE wind on the west side, with like 14C and NNW wind on the east side, with like 18 or 19C
a good CB line is now moving down the east side of northland
I wonder if that might rotate a bit into auckland as the low center consilidates from its elongated state into more circular
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Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by jamie »

Yea the bom model stuck onto this first and held it. Not often that model gets it so correct and better than the others.
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

65mm here in total now, heavy rain here currently, looks to stick around here
I see its like 21C at whangarei
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by David »

Some interesting pressure "bumps" here. My station was showing 998.2 hPa at 8:20am, then 5 minutes later 999.6 hPa
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

jamie wrote:
Manukau heads obs wrote:only 15c here with a southerly wind
more rain moving in
Yea the temp plummeted when it went southerly in the night. Dropped a good 5 degrees suddenly.
Certainly did eh, hit just after midnight... Sharp plummit in temperature with wind dropping down to 0 then ramped to 25 k southerly.
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Ricky only got that colder air just after 7am
it arrived here like at 11pm last night
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Ricky's temp drop ,now that is sudden
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by NZstorm »

62mm for the event in Grey Lynn.
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

very heavy bursts of rain here at times
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Re: Tasman Low and Ex-TC Donna - May 11-12

Unread post by jamie »

Rain coming down at 10mm/hr at the moment. Amazing that we have only had 32mm from the event yet the puddles look like double that. The ground simply cant take the water.
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