El Nino '17

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
wembley
Posts: 156
Joined: Fri 22/03/2013 11:18
Location: Cromwell

El Nino '17

Unread post by wembley »

Looks like we are heading back to El Nino

http://www.christianpost.com/news/el-ni ... ar-188070/
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island

Re: El Nino '17

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I dunno
the models/forecasters have got it wrong a few times already, with El NIno mis firing twice now
currently we are just bumping along in neutral zone
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
wembley
Posts: 156
Joined: Fri 22/03/2013 11:18
Location: Cromwell

Re: El Nino '17

Unread post by wembley »

There has been the odd crap summer when the ENSO was neutral.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6332
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: El Nino '17

Unread post by Nev »

The BoM have just cancelled their El Nino Watch in today's ENSO Wrap-Up.
BoM ENSO Outlook
20 June 2017

The ENSO Outlook has been downgraded from El Niño WATCH to INACTIVE. International climate models have continued to ease their outlooks for El Niño in recent weeks, with all models now suggesting the current ENSO-neutral state will persist for the remainder of the year.

Model outlooks made earlier in the year showed high chances of El Niño development in 2017, with the majority of models suggesting an event would develop in the southern winter and persist through spring. While some very strong warming occurred in the far eastern tropical Pacific Ocean during March-April –which can herald a basin-wide El Niño event– the atmosphere and ocean didn't start reinforcing each other, and this warmth has now dissipated.