NZ Weather Forum

The "Children's Colouring In" weather model, formally called ECWMF, has a wet start to July's weather, depending on what pretty coloured crayons they use

Haha - yep even the 'old boiler' GFS is liking the look of an ECL hitting the region around Saturday/Sunday!

Hoping for a fine or non rainy WE so we can install a glass-house around the back.

What is "an ECL" ?

Orion wrote:What is "an ECL" ?

Aussie weather jargon for an intense low pressure system that often develops very rapidly (sometimes explosively) close to the east coast of Australia, known locally as simply East Coast Lows…

'What is an East Coast Low?' - BoM

As usual the models are flipping around wildly on stuff that far out. It does feel like eventually the planets will align at some point this winter given general patterns though

Thanks, Nev.

So this possible "ECL hitting the region" - what region would that be - NZ or abroad?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Hoping for a fine or non rainy WE so we can install a glass-house around the back.

Thats exactly what I want to do....re-instate our old glass house after and absence of some years.

Looks to be a significant pattern change coming in July. Looking more zonal which should mean better prospects for thunder in the west of the country! And perhaps eventually becoming a bit milder in the east of the country.

Looking like the coldest week of the year so far for Canterbury next week with EC forecasting a low to sit a fair way off the east coast and drive cold southerly winds up the east coast for a number of days, maximums of around 8C look likely for a number of days from Tuesday onwards

Another quiet start for Mt Ruapehu this year with only small amounts of artificial snow in each beginners area. No doubt this will change over the July period. Looks like the new Snow Factory they have purchased and installed has allowed a huge amount of day passes to be sold over the past 4 weeks.

Yeah but not happy, was told this morning that they were opening movenpick with opening tomorrow and now they have changed their mind!

So nice to have some mild temps and sunshine. So much for the 'periods of rain' forecast today.

Snow has closed the road from Fairlie to Twizel,heavy snow around Tekapo.Snow level much lower than forecast around the Mackenzie basin.
Cold rainy day here in town

Different story down here, been wet and overcast all day with 14.5mm of rain falling since midnight.

I'm in Tekapo now. 15cm of snow so far and still puking.

Heavy snow at Mt Cook village according to webcams.

Windiest day here for a while, a few spots of rain, 15C

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Different story down here, been wet and overcast all day with 14.5mm of rain falling since midnight.

Wouldnt have wet the front page section of the Press today if left outside here. A third dry winter in a row if it doesn't rain soon, digging a few spuds today and man the soil is so dry.

Twizel with 53.2mm last couple of days. Heavy snow on the higher parts of the region.

28mm in about 6 hrs here overnight, along with strong/gale NNE'ers for most of yesterday.
I see Whangaparaoa recorded gusts to 94 km/h, which is a little more than what was forecast.

I had 40mm in about 6 hours. Came down hard.

Been at our Bach on the coast for a few days, 178mm recorded in the last 2 days.

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Hoping the hydro lakes have had a top up in the last few days. nil rainfall here and not looking like there's going to be any in the next 10 days either, surely we cant have a third dry winter in a row. Lowest ive seen the water table here during July in 16 years

Hydro lakes should get topped up in the Sept to Dec time frame.

I went for a drive in the McKenzie this morning (in Timaru for the weekend). Snow down to below 700m.

Richard wrote:Hoping the hydro lakes have had a top up in the last few days. nil rainfall here and not looking like there's going to be any in the next 10 days either, surely we cant have a third dry winter in a row. Lowest ive seen the water table here during July in 16 years

Hydro lakes dont tend to get topped up in winter as most of the precip falls as snow. Its the amount of snow which falls which is significant, because that dictates how much streamflow there is when it melts.