Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 10/07/2017 09:47

Its certainly been a volatile week for the models, we are on baby watch, 5 days overdue no labour yet. So keep your snow away from Christchurch please

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 10/07/2017 09:52

Interesting article on Stuff currently, https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/ ... ed-crashes

There is a mistake in there, Blue Skies has never talked about snow levels at Mt Hutt. Its not me saying there could be 2 metres of snow there. Or anywhere.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 10/07/2017 09:54

All the best to the both of you razor

moylanr · Unread post by **moylanr** » Mon 10/07/2017 10:17

Razor wrote:Its certainly been a volatile week for the models, we are on baby watch, 5 days overdue no labour yet. So keep your snow away from Christchurch please

We had 3 planned home births, then had to "rush" to hospital for number four on 18 June 2002....some in this audience may remember that event for the weather in Christchurch then.

Rushing was ~30km/h I think - due to road snow from Barrington to the Women's hospital.

Still, it'll be nice & warm in hospital if/when you're there Razor - all the best for a week you enjoy remembering for years to come.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Mon 10/07/2017 10:20

TonyT wrote:Interesting article on Stuff currently, https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/ ... ed-crashes

There is a mistake in there, Blue Skies has never talked about snow levels at Mt Hutt. Its not me saying there could be 2 metres of snow there. Or anywhere.

They have confused themselves with a quote from either CWU or Canterbury Snow and Weather Watch I'd say...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 10/07/2017 10:26

Very cold system on wensday. I'm picking snow to sea level wensday now to. Chance of some hail/thunder for me too. The 500mb temp -36!!!

Talbotm · Unread post by **Talbotm** » Mon 10/07/2017 10:30

They are very confused. I would like to know where it came from. I know I haven't posted anything like that on Canterbury snow and weather watch and I would doubt CWU would be talking those numbers. I would be surprised if anyone was talking those numbers. There was certainly a possibility for between 50cm -1m but beyond that seems a very long bow to draw. The media are very good at spinning things well beyond the truth. Tony I would just call it "Fake news"

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Mon 10/07/2017 10:37

mikestormchaser wrote:Very cold system on wensday. I'm picking snow to sea level wensday now to. Chance of some hail/thunder for me too. The 500mb temp -36!!!

Mike I'm not entirely sure about the 500mb temps and what it equates to (I usually use 850mb temps) - what is usually the bare minimum for snow to sea level when it comes to 500mb temps?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 10/07/2017 10:52

Bradley wrote:
mikestormchaser wrote:Very cold system on wensday. I'm picking snow to sea level wensday now to. Chance of some hail/thunder for me too. The 500mb temp -36!!!
Mike I'm not entirely sure about the 500mb temps and what it equates to (I usually use 850mb temps) - what is usually the bare minimum for snow to sea level when it comes to 500mb temps?

You tend to get better cooling in the showers with the colder upper level temps, a lower snow level..

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 10/07/2017 11:33

That clears things up Tony, but then also adds to the confusion on stuffs behalf. I hope they edit the article soon

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moylanr · Unread post by **moylanr** » Mon 10/07/2017 11:40

03Stormchaser wrote:That clears things up Tony, but then also adds to the confusion on stuffs behalf. I hope they edit the article soon

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Fixed now.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Mon 10/07/2017 11:42

Razor wrote:Its certainly been a volatile week for the models, we are on baby watch, 5 days overdue no labour yet. So keep your snow away from Christchurch please

Very best wishes!

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 10/07/2017 12:13

moylanr wrote:
03Stormchaser wrote:That clears things up Tony, but then also adds to the confusion on stuffs behalf. I hope they edit the article soon

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Fixed now.

Still says 2m in the article I just read now

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tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 10/07/2017 12:23

Should be an interesting trip back to Chch from Akaroa on Wednesday morning.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 10/07/2017 12:30

tich wrote:Should be an interesting trip back to Chch from Akaroa on Wednesday morning.

Dont do it. Plan to stay longer in Akaroa.

moylanr · Unread post by **moylanr** » Mon 10/07/2017 12:33

03Stormchaser wrote:
moylanr wrote:That clears things up Tony, but then also adds to the confusion on stuffs behalf. I hope they edit the article soon

Fixed now.
Still says 2m in the article I just read now

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I notice that where it use to have something about Blue Skies forecasting 2 m, it has been changed to:

"Up to 2cm of snow could settle along the Dunedin to Waitati Highway from Tuesday through to Thursday.

SNOW FOR MT HUTT?

Mt Hutt ski area manager James McKenzie expected close to 50 centimetres over the three days to Friday.

It would be the biggest snowfall of the season, he said, especially as there was no rain to wash it away."

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 10/07/2017 18:02

What is with NZ Herald and their bizarre weather headlines of late?? Currently on their website: "Four days of hell: worst storm of year bears down on New Zealand" - totally unprofessional!

Thunder081 · Unread post by **Thunder081** » Mon 10/07/2017 18:23

David wrote:What is with NZ Herald and their bizarre weather headlines of late?? Currently on their website: "Four days of hell: worst storm of year bears down on New Zealand" - totally unprofessional!

It's clickbait or cause they don't think for a moment about the weather history.. about ex-cyclone cook in April, lower SI weather bomb back in January ect

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 10/07/2017 19:07

Bradley wrote:
mikestormchaser wrote:Very cold system on wensday. I'm picking snow to sea level wensday now to. Chance of some hail/thunder for me too. The 500mb temp -36!!!
Mike I'm not entirely sure about the 500mb temps and what it equates to (I usually use 850mb temps) - what is usually the bare minimum for snow to sea level when it comes to 500mb temps?

As Spwill said better cooling with colder temperatures aloft deeper convection aswel. Higher the chance of dragging the freezing level down. I often associate snow looking at the 500mb THK temperature and 850mb temps aswel. But the colder all the layers in the atmosphere are the greater the chance I guess. I'm referring to the temperature 3D at 500mb for the chances of lightning. John- I think your in for a dusting of icing surger in Geraldine by wensday morning!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 10/07/2017 19:12

Doesn't colder air usually end up drier/

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 10/07/2017 19:30

I think cold air under cuts the warmer moist air? Isnt that how it works?

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 10/07/2017 19:35

I mean in a polar outbreak

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Mon 10/07/2017 19:35

Just looked at the latest models and have to say there is definitely enough moisture for the event. Temperatures seem low enough and the 522 line is in the right place.I have sneaky feeling that if that low moves slightly more to the south we could see some really good snowfall to lower levels. I'm fairly confident at this stage to say that we are going to get snow to sea level about mid Canterbury coast on this system. $\:D/$

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 10/07/2017 20:25

mikestormchaser wrote: THK temperature and 850mb temps aswel. But the colder all the layers in the atmosphere are the greater the chance I guess. I'm referring to the temperature 3D at 500mb for the chances of lightning. John- I think your in for a dusting of icing surger in Geraldine by wensday morning!

Could be there Mikey, but I think lightning tendencies don't look good as the ridging from the high over lower aussie looks likely to push in, to cradle the low.
... but then

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 10/07/2017 20:32

Lawrence wrote:Just looked at the latest models and have to say there is definitely enough moisture for the event. Temperatures seem low enough and the 522 line is in the right place.I have sneaky feeling that if that low moves slightly more to the south we could see some really good snowfall to lower levels. I'm fairly confident at this stage to say that we are going to get snow to sea level about mid Canterbury coast on this system. $\:D/$

The models are often quite poor at getting the position of the centre of lows forming off the east coast of NZ correct (IMHO). I suspect thats due to downstream effects from the upper level flow over the main ranges. While there has been some consistency in recent days on this NI low expected to form later on Wednesday, I would still be cautious that the centre could be in quite a wide zone, and I wouldn't be surprised if the models take a miss on this one.

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