Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Its certainly been a volatile week for the models, we are on baby watch, 5 days overdue no labour yet. So keep your snow away from Christchurch please
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Interesting article on Stuff currently, https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/ ... ed-crashes
There is a mistake in there, Blue Skies has never talked about snow levels at Mt Hutt. Its not me saying there could be 2 metres of snow there. Or anywhere.
There is a mistake in there, Blue Skies has never talked about snow levels at Mt Hutt. Its not me saying there could be 2 metres of snow there. Or anywhere.
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
We had 3 planned home births, then had to "rush" to hospital for number four on 18 June 2002....some in this audience may remember that event for the weather in Christchurch then.Razor wrote:Its certainly been a volatile week for the models, we are on baby watch, 5 days overdue no labour yet. So keep your snow away from Christchurch please
Rushing was ~30km/h I think - due to road snow from Barrington to the Women's hospital.
Still, it'll be nice & warm in hospital if/when you're there Razor - all the best for a week you enjoy remembering for years to come.
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
They have confused themselves with a quote from either CWU or Canterbury Snow and Weather Watch I'd say...TonyT wrote:Interesting article on Stuff currently, https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/ ... ed-crashes
There is a mistake in there, Blue Skies has never talked about snow levels at Mt Hutt. Its not me saying there could be 2 metres of snow there. Or anywhere.
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Very cold system on wensday. I'm picking snow to sea level wensday now to. Chance of some hail/thunder for me too. The 500mb temp -36!!!
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
They are very confused. I would like to know where it came from. I know I haven't posted anything like that on Canterbury snow and weather watch and I would doubt CWU would be talking those numbers. I would be surprised if anyone was talking those numbers. There was certainly a possibility for between 50cm -1m but beyond that seems a very long bow to draw. The media are very good at spinning things well beyond the truth. Tony I would just call it "Fake news"
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Mike I'm not entirely sure about the 500mb temps and what it equates to (I usually use 850mb temps) - what is usually the bare minimum for snow to sea level when it comes to 500mb temps?mikestormchaser wrote:Very cold system on wensday. I'm picking snow to sea level wensday now to. Chance of some hail/thunder for me too. The 500mb temp -36!!!
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
You tend to get better cooling in the showers with the colder upper level temps, a lower snow level..Bradley wrote:Mike I'm not entirely sure about the 500mb temps and what it equates to (I usually use 850mb temps) - what is usually the bare minimum for snow to sea level when it comes to 500mb temps?mikestormchaser wrote:Very cold system on wensday. I'm picking snow to sea level wensday now to. Chance of some hail/thunder for me too. The 500mb temp -36!!!
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That clears things up Tony, but then also adds to the confusion on stuffs behalf. I hope they edit the article soon
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Fixed now.03Stormchaser wrote:That clears things up Tony, but then also adds to the confusion on stuffs behalf. I hope they edit the article soon
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Very best wishes!Razor wrote:Its certainly been a volatile week for the models, we are on baby watch, 5 days overdue no labour yet. So keep your snow away from Christchurch please
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Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Still says 2m in the article I just read nowmoylanr wrote:Fixed now.03Stormchaser wrote:That clears things up Tony, but then also adds to the confusion on stuffs behalf. I hope they edit the article soon
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Should be an interesting trip back to Chch from Akaroa on Wednesday morning.
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Dont do it. Plan to stay longer in Akaroa.tich wrote:Should be an interesting trip back to Chch from Akaroa on Wednesday morning.
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
I notice that where it use to have something about Blue Skies forecasting 2 m, it has been changed to:03Stormchaser wrote:Still says 2m in the article I just read nowmoylanr wrote:That clears things up Tony, but then also adds to the confusion on stuffs behalf. I hope they edit the article soon
Fixed now.
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"Up to 2cm of snow could settle along the Dunedin to Waitati Highway from Tuesday through to Thursday.
SNOW FOR MT HUTT?
Mt Hutt ski area manager James McKenzie expected close to 50 centimetres over the three days to Friday.
It would be the biggest snowfall of the season, he said, especially as there was no rain to wash it away."
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
What is with NZ Herald and their bizarre weather headlines of late?? Currently on their website: "Four days of hell: worst storm of year bears down on New Zealand" - totally unprofessional!
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
It's clickbait or cause they don't think for a moment about the weather history.. about ex-cyclone cook in April, lower SI weather bomb back in January ectDavid wrote:What is with NZ Herald and their bizarre weather headlines of late?? Currently on their website: "Four days of hell: worst storm of year bears down on New Zealand" - totally unprofessional!
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
As Spwill said better cooling with colder temperatures aloft deeper convection aswel. Higher the chance of dragging the freezing level down. I often associate snow looking at the 500mb THK temperature and 850mb temps aswel. But the colder all the layers in the atmosphere are the greater the chance I guess. I'm referring to the temperature 3D at 500mb for the chances of lightning. John- I think your in for a dusting of icing surger in Geraldine by wensday morning!Bradley wrote:Mike I'm not entirely sure about the 500mb temps and what it equates to (I usually use 850mb temps) - what is usually the bare minimum for snow to sea level when it comes to 500mb temps?mikestormchaser wrote:Very cold system on wensday. I'm picking snow to sea level wensday now to. Chance of some hail/thunder for me too. The 500mb temp -36!!!
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
I think cold air under cuts the warmer moist air? Isnt that how it works?
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Just looked at the latest models and have to say there is definitely enough moisture for the event. Temperatures seem low enough and the 522 line is in the right place.I have sneaky feeling that if that low moves slightly more to the south we could see some really good snowfall to lower levels. I'm fairly confident at this stage to say that we are going to get snow to sea level about mid Canterbury coast on this system.
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
Could be there Mikey, but I think lightning tendencies don't look good as the ridging from the high over lower aussie looks likely to push in, to cradle the low.mikestormchaser wrote: THK temperature and 850mb temps aswel. But the colder all the layers in the atmosphere are the greater the chance I guess. I'm referring to the temperature 3D at 500mb for the chances of lightning. John- I think your in for a dusting of icing surger in Geraldine by wensday morning!
... but then
JohnGaul
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Re: Polar blast & NI low 11-14th July
The models are often quite poor at getting the position of the centre of lows forming off the east coast of NZ correct (IMHO). I suspect thats due to downstream effects from the upper level flow over the main ranges. While there has been some consistency in recent days on this NI low expected to form later on Wednesday, I would still be cautious that the centre could be in quite a wide zone, and I wouldn't be surprised if the models take a miss on this one.Lawrence wrote:Just looked at the latest models and have to say there is definitely enough moisture for the event. Temperatures seem low enough and the 522 line is in the right place.I have sneaky feeling that if that low moves slightly more to the south we could see some really good snowfall to lower levels. I'm fairly confident at this stage to say that we are going to get snow to sea level about mid Canterbury coast on this system.