NZ Weather Forum

Here we go again. Models have been showing a cold southerly with snow to 1-200m Thursday and Friday. Metvuw are showing a good amount of moisture with this now too.

Another week and another bout of colder weather coming up with a classic cold front coming through Thursday into Friday with some low level snow (around 300-400m at this stage for Canterbury) and a semi-decent amount of moisture
with widespread falls of around 10mm-20mm. Places like Methven, Springfield, Lake Tekapo and Hanmer Springs could easily end up receiving between 15-25cm with some flurries to lower levels…

Each GFS run is lifting the moisture content. With a THK level down in the low 520s this could be snow to near sea level. Moisture looks to hang around a bit more now too. Chain showers mainly but could be heavy.

Talbotm wrote:Each GFS run is lifting the moisture content. With a THK level down in the low 520s this could be snow to near sea level. Moisture looks to hang around a bit more now too. Chain showers mainly but could be heavy.

This mornings GFS run had 23mm and this afternoons run also had 23mm for Christchurch but with slightly lower thickness levels. I'm not seeing anything remotely unusual or severe about this upcoming system but I guess something could change

Looks like a polar jet stream coming onto the South Island early Friday with some snow to low levels. I would say there is a risk of heavy snow near the foothills due to orographic enhancement.

20mm in Chch this week will likely mean refreshed flooding

Friday has the potential for snow to quite low levels over the North Island. Perhaps Taupo town could see some wintry precip?

And current gfs suggests Auckland will get its coldest day of the winter on Saturday. 850mb down to -4C.

Certainly looks very cold with 850mb temps of -8 and -9 in parts of SI. Unfortunately it looks like its going be rather dry.

NZstorm wrote:Friday has the potential for snow to quite low levels over the North Island. Perhaps Taupo town could see some wintry precip?

And current gfs suggests Auckland will get its coldest day of the winter on Saturday. 850mb down to -4C.

I see the polar jet coming straight up the south island Stephen. 500mb shear winds. Should ramp up some good convectivity and heavy showers/ snow

EC has been very consistent with this with snow to around 250-300m in Canterbury and 10-20cm above 300m and around 30cm above 500m. Can't see any snow down to sea level at this stage...

Metservice has issued a watch. 20-40mm poss up to 50mm. Snow to 600m accross Banks Peninsula, 300-400m inland

No one here showing interest in this event today, surprised! Perhaps you are all weathered out!!

Seems to me this cold be the coldest outbreak of winter so far. Moisture levels modelling higher today than previous

Razor wrote:Seems to me this cold be the coldest outbreak of winter so far. Moisture levels modelling higher today than previous

Might there be some undercutting, resulting in lower than (metservice's) forecast snow levels for Canterbury.

tich wrote:

Razor wrote:Seems to me this cold be the coldest outbreak of winter so far. Moisture levels modelling higher today than previous

Might there be some undercutting, resulting in lower than (metservice's) forecast snow levels for Canterbury.

Metservice suggest that snow levels could be lower in todays severe weather outlook

Latest EC has snow only to 300-400m and also less moisture, the event 2 weeks ago will certainly end up being colder and wetter for Canterbury then this one IMO...

We're probably waiting to see how this event will pan out compared to the other 2 events for July?

Razor wrote:No one here showing interest in this event today, surprised! Perhaps you are all weathered out!!

Probably waiting to see how this event will pan out?

There does seem to be a window probably 6am to 10am Friday morning where snow could fall to near sea level, possibly more light dusting just around 100m.
The combination of the polar jet deep shower clouds and a typical chain S-SW set up, makes for a tricky forecast touch and go but should be some good ice in those showers anyway.

Just steady light rain here so far, thank goodness hopefully that blue on the radar stays to the south

The Mackenzie country is having a snowy Winter this year.

14mm here in Geraldine to 1pm today, not as bad as last Friday, well at least the street is not flooded.

Only just started to rain here

A few snowflakes here in Queenstown, finally.

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Apparently there's heavy snow in the McKenzie district.
Heard no reports except from some stuff from stuff.

It's still raining here but lighter than it was earlier.