NZstorm wrote:Spillover thunder from the alps on the cards for inland South Island this weekend.
A series of Jet streams moving across the country at the weekend. Speed shear is a great ingredient for lightning.
I see Sunday is showing signs of spring thunder activity over the south island. The skies have had some real ominous look about it the last week or so. Seen some CBS over toward the West coast this evening to. Signs of a good storm season ahead maybe, over due for one in Canterbury
I hope so.
Went up the Rangitata Gorge today for a look.
Took some photos and thought up beyond those mountains would look very good with lightning beyond.
Will keep an eye on this place, the area which could be "Beyond the TC"
Photo of our flowering cherry trees this afternoon. Managed to catch a tui in the photo - it's a particularly aggressive bird which has been defending these trees for the last week, chasing away other birds (including other tui) and pretty much keeping watch over them every day from 5.30am to 6.30pm (those are the hours I can hear it singing)
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Nice pic david. Great to see the blossom coming out. I have a dafney plant flowering outside my place and it always gives a strong scent.. Just looking at tomorrow. Low risk of a heavy shower/storm I think along the coast line in the afternoon.. the combinations on the models are starting to look better for it with the trigger of a SW flick in the afternoon. Only low risk though being time of year
melja wrote:Man you guys are lucky, no real signs of spring like that down here.
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Yes noticed that yesterday, Weeping willows are turning green here but not down Rangiora,here the Ribbonwoods are leafing up along with my Haskaps and Gojiberries, plums turning white/pink in the Weka pass too.
David- great shot of that Tui, if only they were around here, ive planted LOTS of natives and now have Bellbirds coming around though.
Not sure how MetService calculated their claims that the Auckland and Hamilton average mean-temp so far this year to Aug 8th (220 days) are 0.0C and -0.1C respectively compared to normal... By my reckoning they should both be about 0.4C above normal. Wellington and Christchurch also seem to be slightly less below normal than MetService's calculations…
2017 T-Mean Anomalies to Aug 8th (220 days) based on 1981-2010 normals
Site Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug YTD (v MS)
Auckland, Mangere -0.6 -0.2 +0.8 +1.2 0.0 +0.4 +0.6 +0.7 = +0.4
Auckland Aero -0.5 +0.2 +0.8 +1.4 -0.2 +0.3 +0.3 +0.6 = +0.4 ( 0.0)
Hamilton Aero -1.4 +0.4 +1.3 +1.3 -0.5 +0.1 +0.3 +1.7 = +0.4 (-0.1)
Wellington, Kelburn -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 +0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 +0.4 = -0.1 (-0.3)
Christchurch Aero -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 +0.5 -1.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 = -0.2 (-0.3)
Note that NIWA's Wgtn July T-mean should be 8.9C (not 9.0C), because its July 5th T-max of 10.0C wasn't included. They have since amended Chch's Jan T-mean though.
spwill wrote:I don't like the method of finding the mean temp by only using the mean/max temperatures, I feel it can misrepresent temperature.
Sometimes just using maximum and minimum temperatures can be misleading as well if you want a true indication of how hot/cool the day was, I remember one day this winter in Christchurch where the maximum got to 16C yet this was only achieved for 10 minutes when the sun broke through - literally the rest of the day was below 11C except for that 10 minute period - how is that a good representation of the day either? The best way to do it is use the temperature data from every 10 minutes over a 24 hour period and then find the mean temp that way...
Climatologists have used the max/min temp method to determine mean-temps for eons, whereas the advent of more detailed electronic recorders is only relatively recent. So to suddenly change that method when comparing to long-term averages would be even more 'misleading' and akin to comparing apples with oranges.
Good lightning flashes towards the West atm.. more mt cook area. Would I be right John? Just south of TC I'm in rakaia atm and see it nicely towards alps
mikestormchaser wrote:Good lightning flashes towards the West atm.. more mt cook area. Would I be right John? Just south of TC I'm in rakaia atm and see it nicely towards alps
YES!
More to the north of here but a lot of the flashing is beyond, more so up and over the Southern Alps, way beyond Mt Peel, which is my new focus for thunderstorms from here.
Would be nice to go back up the Rangitata Gorge at the moment for a look, but it is a bit late
By my reckoning they should both be about 0.4C above normal. Wellington and Christchurch also seem to be slightly less below normal than MetService's calculations…
