USA Hurricane Irma

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

Models are in agreement for a cat5 Hurricane to effect eastern USA in 7 to 10 days time. Just computer output at this stage.

Latest GFS
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

Could be Florida that gets the strongest impacts from this hurricane.

Chart for next Monday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

The Hurricane Hunter has measured 160knot mean winds in Irma today. So a cat5 now.

On the ECMWF, Irma weakens over Cuba before intensifying again. The highlands of Cuba would disrupt the storm if Irma goes that way.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by David »

Latest GFS has it making a direct hit on South & North Carolina rather than Florida:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

916hpa now so really cranking up. Its the second strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic given the hurricane hunters observations.

The US media is getting into frenzy mode now but the reality is the hurricanes future movement is still uncertain.
User avatar
Thunder081
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed 22/08/2012 00:10
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 140 times
Been thanked: 464 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Thunder081 »

Wow a weather station in Barbuda has recorded a 247 kph gust. Station link: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobe ... m=12&raw=0
vlcsnap-2017-09-06-17h23m00s997.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by David »

Thunder081 wrote:Wow a weather station in Barbuda has recorded a 247 kph gust. Station link: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobe ... m=12&raw=0
Looks like the anemometer blew away soon after...
Image
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by David »

Wow, I see at Barbuda the air pressure fell 50 hPa in one hour!
Image
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by David »

Looking like Miami Florida might be right in the firing line.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Razor »

There's now 3 hurricanes in play from the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

Florida is one of the population centres of the US so this hurricane will be significant. Not sure how many people have Hurricane insurance there, I think it would be expensive in southern Florida.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by David »

Wunderground forecast chart for Miami Beach... peak windspeed 240 km/h on Sunday. 8-o
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

Central pressure 909hpa according to the hurricane hunter.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Hi All,

It's my first post, so I hope its a nice friendly bunch in here. Here is my analysis on this gargantuan cyclonic mad gyre.... and by the way, EC 070917 run 00z just modelled Jose to track the same path as Irma next week as a cat 3 to 4 :crazy:

using Advanced Dvorak Technique , she's looking steady. After those Cuban mountains, the sea surface temperatures could make her really pop.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

Cyclone Tracy wrote:Hi All,

It's my first post, so I hope its a nice friendly bunch in here. Here is my analysis on this gargantuan cyclonic mad gyre.... and by the way, EC 070917 run 00z just modelled Jose to track the same path as Irma next week as a cat 3 to 4 :crazy:

using Advanced Dvorak Technique , she's looking steady. After those Cuban mountains, the sea surface temperatures could make her really pop.
Howdy. It sure has turned into an interesting hurricane season for the US after an unusually quite 10 years.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

If this latest HMON model run is right, Miami is going to get a glimpse of a top 5 cane of all time eye wall, at a ear throbbing 880 hPa. Seems a little extreme but considering it's heading to low 900s already, that 30c SST off Florida will turn her nuclear.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

Accuweather say it will weaken to cat 4 for landfall in Florida.

Latest run of the European. Over the Florida keys Sunday night our time.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

NZstorm wrote:Accuweather say it will weaken to cat 4 for landfall in Florida.

Latest run of the European. Over the Florida keys Sunday night our time.
It's quite interesting that EC is tracking Irma slightly more west than the American models with a later turn north. Latest Sea surface temps off SE Florida are now 31c....its simmering. If wind shear is favourable, she will rapidly intensify in those waters.GFS and HMON thinks this is the case
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

GFS Sept 7th 18z run is lining up with EC on position. It's a Miami Mauler
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Goodness me - Wind shear is now looking favourable, she's moving into 31c water and she's already a 920 hPa cane. If she does what I think she will do, the 870 hPa world record is within striking distance at the moment.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

EC has pushed it slightly west again but its going to slam the whole of Florida with this current EC set up.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

A lot of storm chasers heading for Florida, Reed Timmer is in Key Largo. Its all about getting into the eye for hurricane chasers.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

NZstorm wrote:A lot of storm chasers heading for Florida, Reed Timmer is in Key Largo. Its all about getting into the eye for hurricane chasers.
It will be interesting how the chasers handle this one. I see mandatory evacuations are now in place in southern Florida. Hard to chase if you are told to leave by law. They'll be hoping for a big S wobble into their hide outs.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by NZstorm »

Cyclone Tracy wrote:
NZstorm wrote:A lot of storm chasers heading for Florida, Reed Timmer is in Key Largo. Its all about getting into the eye for hurricane chasers.
It will be interesting how the chasers handle this one. I see mandatory evacuations are now in place in southern Florida. Hard to chase if you are told to leave by law. They'll be hoping for a big S wobble into their hide outs.
The cops generally let storm chasers do their thing as the chasers provide the National Weather Service with observations. The chase tactic with hurricanes is to get into a multi level masonry building (carpark) in an area where the eye wall will cross.
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: USA Hurricane Irma

Unread post by Razor »

Some truly devastating pictures coming in from the Virgin Islands, what a tragedy
Christchurch Rocks
Post Reply