USA Hurricane Irma

[tgsnoopy]

This next period is going to get interesting, I'm expecting rapid intensification and it's direction will seal the fate for some poor people in it's path.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... -200-1-100

[Cyclone Tracy]

Irma's core has warmed 10c in the last 30 minutes. Here we go ....

[jamie]

Is warming at the core a good thing? I'm new to understanding tropical storms.

[ScottyD]

Irma's core has warmed 10c in the last 30 minutes. Here we go ....

Where are you getting that data from?

[tgsnoopy]

Interesting that it appears it's eye moved NW for a bit and is now heading W again. Not surprised to see the intensification as it moves away from shore over that warm water.

[Cyclone Tracy]

She is starting to do an intensification tangy, so the wobbling from NW to W to NW should be normal from this point.

The core warming is a sign she is starting to mature again.

I'm getting the data from the advanced dvorak technique Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm. Its based off satellite data that Meteorologists are currently analysing. Flight observation data taken from aircraft like the Hurricane Hunter can be more precise if they get the aircraft to the edge of the eyewall .

Here is what I see currently - steady around 950 hPa, 109 knots, core temp now -25c from -37c over the last hour.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Lightning tracker now going off north of Miami on the outer bands. Possible hook echoes on the Doppler radar indicating tornadic activity. That area would now be mesocyclone alley.

Some models now jumping on my theory of a west coast hugger with a pan handle landfall. Upper steering is certainly suggesting it at the moment....but of course nothing is certain until it passes Key West

[Cyclone Tracy]

She has warmed another 3c in the last 30 min. Center Temp : -22.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C

Irma is maturing....

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hurricane Hunter mission 29 has just sent back a central pressure of 932 hPa.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Core has now warmed 25c in the last 30 min. Centre Temp : +3.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

The eye is now reorganised and clearing. She is officially ramping up to become a gargantuan warm core gyre and heading NNW

[Bradley]

Core has now warmed 25c in the last 30 min. Centre Temp : +3.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

The eye is now reorganised and clearing. She is officially ramping up to become a gargantuan warm core gyre and heading NNW

So you don't subscribe to the NHC theory of Irma weakening or staying at its current intensity for the next 24 hours I take it?

[Bradley]

Irma looking very healthy now in every respect

[David]

Some torrential rain bands over southern Florida last several hours, especially near Fort Pierce. This PWS recorded 188mm in 1.5 hours, with a max hourly fall of about 130mm.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Core has now warmed 25c in the last 30 min. Centre Temp : +3.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

The eye is now reorganised and clearing. She is officially ramping up to become a gargantuan warm core gyre and heading NNW

So you don't subscribe to the NHC theory of Irma weakening or staying at its current intensity for the next 24 hours I take it?

It was an amazing call by the NHC, within 3 hours of making the call she becomes a Cat 4. All the data I was looking at clearly showed intensification was underway. She's big now....

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hurricane hunter measuring 928 HPa and 130 knots. Solid cat 4. On advanced Dvorak the core is pulsing up and down 10 degrees every 30 min. Fascinating stage now and Florida keys about to come into play.

[tgsnoopy]

Latest movement is pretty much North, look out Florida. Hope it doesn't intensify too much before landfall.

[Cyclone Tracy]

atmospheric river running at 70 to 80mm, producing an Irma water bomb. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[Cyclone Tracy]

Lightning now occurring around the eye wall..... she's getting wild now

[Cyclone Tracy]

Very unusual to see lightning around an eye wall. Only violent canes and clones have this occurance where strong electric fields exist above the eye wall.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Florida Keys copped a Cat 4 assault. She dropped to a high end cat 3 after passing over the keys and looks to be heading to attack Naples. Core temp at the moment suggests no increased intensification before the landfall.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Storm surge in Miami earlier - https://twitter.com/RyanAFournier/statu ... 4215939072

I can't imagine what Florida keys would have been like in relation to the storm surge. Total horror stories to come out of there in the next 24 hours I would say. It's the biggest killer of the gargantuan warm core gyre

[Cyclone Tracy]

Nice sat pic of the twin canes during the daylight hours as Irma was attacking Florida. Jose is a cat 3 when this image was taken. Irma is a monster.

[NZstorm]

Some interesting footage of damage coming out on you tube. About 100 tornado warnings issued during Irma, so radar was detecting a lot of rotating storms.

[Nev]

Interesting 'Hurricane Size Comparison' video. It might not be entirely accurate, but it does give a good scale of the sizes of some notable Hurricane/TC's. Best viewed full-screen...

(source)

Note that these TC's are all shown rotating clockwise, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere they should be rotating counter-clockwise.

[tgsnoopy]

Hurricane Irma- Cane Garden Bay time lapse
https://vimeo.com/235761428

Try copy & paste to browser address bar, I can't seem to get the hyperlink working from the forum for some reason.