NZ Weather Forum

Fly overs rate her back to a cat 5 in the last hour. It's less then 24 hours before she gets into simmering waters of 31c under Florida. Wind shear looks very favourable. It's about to be pop corn time.

GFS current sat simulation on landfall is very sobering for Florida

Cyclone Tracy -

" It's about to be pop corn time." - could you explain what this means please?

Orion wrote:Cyclone Tracy -

" It's about to be pop corn time." - could you explain what this means please?

It means she will rapidly intensify just before landfall. The cloud tops around her eye wall and outer bands will look like cooking pop corn on the satellite imagery when she gets into this intensification frenzy. This is one mad gargantuan warm core gyre.

Yes, unfortunately Irma may be back to cat 5 as it crosses Florida Keys. Looks like the hurricane makes landfall near Naples on the western side of Florida which will at least spare Miami the strongest winds.

Latest GFS 18z showing 889 hPa on landfall on the western corner. I took a 850 hPa snap shot to give an idea of wind gusts coming downwards. Life under 3m sea level on this projected hit zone of the eye wall wont survive. Florida keys is about wiped off the map if this GFS run is accurate.

Looking at the Advanced Dvorak tech method, Irma has dropped 12 hPa in the last 2 hours. She's bouncing along the Cuban coast. I would of expected weakening at this stage due to the Cuban coastline but she is maintaining a solid high cat 4 to low 5 status.

Cuban radar has her attacking parallel to Cuba , munching her way through the Cuban shoreline and islands in a WNW direction. No sign of clear Cuba land crossing or north turn towards the U.S at this point. Models pretty much on the money so far and she's holding steady around 927 hPa at the moment

wow - cloud tops holding around -70c to 80c on the outside of Cuba. Convection still very strong.

Back up to Category 5 status.

Apparently the hurricane is starting to pull away from the Cuban coast now.

Peak gusts of 140 knots expected over SE Florida according to accuweather. That's 260km/hr!

Yes NZstorm, I've seen comments its moving north but looking at the latest radar from Cuba, it's still hugging the coast. I'm probably wrong but it still looks WNW to me. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

EC has also just shifted it west again for the eye impact. There is a clear misalignment now between the American models and EC. It will make a big difference to Miami. If it moves further west, it's going to be the hot steamy waters of the gulf.

She is S wobbling on the coast - Advanced Dvorak cuts out when a hurricane touches land. Here is the last 6 hours. Amazingly she is maintaining her cat 5 status even with land interaction. Total beast!

She is still hugging the Cuban coastline. If she keeps hugging it, she will head more WNW in my opinion and might mean the North turn is delayed. Big 12 hours ahead now.

Cuba eventually took its toll on Irma, looks like a high cat 3 now. She has been hugging the coastline for the last 12 hours, so eventually land takes it toll. All models have her turning north at any moment but she is still WNW in my opinion right now. If and when she turns, conditions don't get much better for RI (Rapid intensification)

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

Cyclone Tracy wrote:Cuba eventually took its toll on Irma, looks like a high cat 3 now. She has been hugging the coastline for the last 12 hours, so eventually land takes it toll. All models have her turning north at any moment but she is still WNW in my opinion right now. If and when she turns, conditions don't get much better for RI (Rapid intensification)

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

So it could largely miss Florida?

That's certainly good news for Florida. I see the forecast windspeeds in Miami (GFS) have dropped from 200 km/h to 150 km/h. Still damaging, but less destructive anyway.

Razor wrote: So it could largely miss Florida?

It will travel up the western side of Florida. Fort Myers and Tampa are in the path.

If she doesn't turn north soon, looking at current steering, she might hug the west coastline and potentially go for the pan handle. Here is the current sat loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 091555.GIF

Here is current steering - if she doesn't turn soon, she goes NW

Latest run of the NAM has Irma turning by 03Z and making landfall Fort Myers 21Z.

Models have a long way to go still. Check out EC, arguably the most accurate in the world got it so wrong 1 week out...along with so many others. The main reason why the 5 day rule is used by bureau's.

Still tracking WNW on the Cuban coastline. Models says she's make her move north at anytime now. Her core is still in cooling mode. No sign of intensification at this very moment. She needs to move away from Cuba to regain energy.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 091937.GIF

At Marathon in the Florida keys the wind already gusting 62knots.

10.50am NZT - Still WNW. Pressure stable, cat 3, solid convection. Any turn north between now and the next 6 hours is devastation for Florida keys as mentioned by NZstorm.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif