USA Hurricane Irma
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
USA Hurricane Irma
Models are in agreement for a cat5 Hurricane to effect eastern USA in 7 to 10 days time. Just computer output at this stage.
Latest GFS
Latest GFS
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Could be Florida that gets the strongest impacts from this hurricane.
Chart for next Monday.
Chart for next Monday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
The Hurricane Hunter has measured 160knot mean winds in Irma today. So a cat5 now.
On the ECMWF, Irma weakens over Cuba before intensifying again. The highlands of Cuba would disrupt the storm if Irma goes that way.
On the ECMWF, Irma weakens over Cuba before intensifying again. The highlands of Cuba would disrupt the storm if Irma goes that way.
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Latest GFS has it making a direct hit on South & North Carolina rather than Florida:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
916hpa now so really cranking up. Its the second strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic given the hurricane hunters observations.
The US media is getting into frenzy mode now but the reality is the hurricanes future movement is still uncertain.
The US media is getting into frenzy mode now but the reality is the hurricanes future movement is still uncertain.
- Thunder081
- Posts: 469
- Joined: Wed 22/08/2012 00:10
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 140 times
- Been thanked: 464 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Wow a weather station in Barbuda has recorded a 247 kph gust. Station link: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobe ... m=12&raw=0
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Looks like the anemometer blew away soon after...Thunder081 wrote:Wow a weather station in Barbuda has recorded a 247 kph gust. Station link: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobe ... m=12&raw=0
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Looking like Miami Florida might be right in the firing line.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5138
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 725 times
- Been thanked: 932 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
There's now 3 hurricanes in play from the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Christchurch Rocks
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Florida is one of the population centres of the US so this hurricane will be significant. Not sure how many people have Hurricane insurance there, I think it would be expensive in southern Florida.
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Wunderground forecast chart for Miami Beach... peak windspeed 240 km/h on Sunday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Hi All,
It's my first post, so I hope its a nice friendly bunch in here. Here is my analysis on this gargantuan cyclonic mad gyre.... and by the way, EC 070917 run 00z just modelled Jose to track the same path as Irma next week as a cat 3 to 4
using Advanced Dvorak Technique , she's looking steady. After those Cuban mountains, the sea surface temperatures could make her really pop.
It's my first post, so I hope its a nice friendly bunch in here. Here is my analysis on this gargantuan cyclonic mad gyre.... and by the way, EC 070917 run 00z just modelled Jose to track the same path as Irma next week as a cat 3 to 4
using Advanced Dvorak Technique , she's looking steady. After those Cuban mountains, the sea surface temperatures could make her really pop.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Howdy. It sure has turned into an interesting hurricane season for the US after an unusually quite 10 years.Cyclone Tracy wrote:Hi All,
It's my first post, so I hope its a nice friendly bunch in here. Here is my analysis on this gargantuan cyclonic mad gyre.... and by the way, EC 070917 run 00z just modelled Jose to track the same path as Irma next week as a cat 3 to 4
using Advanced Dvorak Technique , she's looking steady. After those Cuban mountains, the sea surface temperatures could make her really pop.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
If this latest HMON model run is right, Miami is going to get a glimpse of a top 5 cane of all time eye wall, at a ear throbbing 880 hPa. Seems a little extreme but considering it's heading to low 900s already, that 30c SST off Florida will turn her nuclear.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Accuweather say it will weaken to cat 4 for landfall in Florida.
Latest run of the European. Over the Florida keys Sunday night our time.
Latest run of the European. Over the Florida keys Sunday night our time.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
It's quite interesting that EC is tracking Irma slightly more west than the American models with a later turn north. Latest Sea surface temps off SE Florida are now 31c....its simmering. If wind shear is favourable, she will rapidly intensify in those waters.GFS and HMON thinks this is the caseNZstorm wrote:Accuweather say it will weaken to cat 4 for landfall in Florida.
Latest run of the European. Over the Florida keys Sunday night our time.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
GFS Sept 7th 18z run is lining up with EC on position. It's a Miami Mauler
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Goodness me - Wind shear is now looking favourable, she's moving into 31c water and she's already a 920 hPa cane. If she does what I think she will do, the 870 hPa world record is within striking distance at the moment.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
EC has pushed it slightly west again but its going to slam the whole of Florida with this current EC set up.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
A lot of storm chasers heading for Florida, Reed Timmer is in Key Largo. Its all about getting into the eye for hurricane chasers.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
It will be interesting how the chasers handle this one. I see mandatory evacuations are now in place in southern Florida. Hard to chase if you are told to leave by law. They'll be hoping for a big S wobble into their hide outs.NZstorm wrote:A lot of storm chasers heading for Florida, Reed Timmer is in Key Largo. Its all about getting into the eye for hurricane chasers.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
The cops generally let storm chasers do their thing as the chasers provide the National Weather Service with observations. The chase tactic with hurricanes is to get into a multi level masonry building (carpark) in an area where the eye wall will cross.Cyclone Tracy wrote:It will be interesting how the chasers handle this one. I see mandatory evacuations are now in place in southern Florida. Hard to chase if you are told to leave by law. They'll be hoping for a big S wobble into their hide outs.NZstorm wrote:A lot of storm chasers heading for Florida, Reed Timmer is in Key Largo. Its all about getting into the eye for hurricane chasers.
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5138
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 725 times
- Been thanked: 932 times
Re: USA Hurricane Irma
Some truly devastating pictures coming in from the Virgin Islands, what a tragedy
Christchurch Rocks