UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Autumn 2017 has started on the cool side but not particularly unsettled here in the south of the UK. It has been rather humid at times but the first two days were mostly sunny with clear air off the Atlantic.

The CET for September was 13.6*C (-1.2*C) up to the 3rd and the EWR was 10mm also up to the 3rd and this is 13% of the monthly average of 78mm.

The rest of the week will see an increase in activity over the Atlantic with deeper lows moving towards NW Scotland by Friday and this will give us breezy, cool and showery weather. Next week we may start to see the impact of recent (and current) hurricanes on the Atlantic energy budget so beyond this weekend is impossible to predict. These systems can have very diverse effects on the weather of NW Europe in the Autumn depending on where the areas of enhanced heat and moisture move to and whether they engsge any troughs in the jet stream.

EDIT: The morning of the 1st (last Friday) was quite coool for so early in the season with a touch of ground frost in prone areas. Lowests air minimums were 1.2*C at Sennybridge (S Wales), 3.2*C at Santon Downham (Suffolk) and 3.8*C at South Newington (Oxon).
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has turned decidedly autumnal in the last few days with a cool westerly flow and showers or bands of rain at times - daytime temperatures have been mostly in the mid-teens celcius. We have been spoilt in recent autumns with plenty of warm and sunny weather well into October, but I do not think this will be the case this year. The Met Office have issued gale warnings for the central swathe of England + Wales for Tues/Weds night witth potential gusts to 75mph, so with the trees still in full leaf, it could be a wild night. The parent low is expected to track eastwards across northern England with a central pressure between 975-980mb and will leave behind a cold north westerly flow for the rest of the week and more showers.

The CET for September was 14.5*C (spot on average) up to the 10th and the EWR was 33mm up to the 9th which is 42% of the monthly average.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The approaching low is currently (1900GMT, Tues 12th Sept) over the centre of Eire at 986mb and appears to be a little deeper than expected but moving a little more slowly. It will develop more as it crosses the UK with very strong winds developing on its SW flank with gusts expected up to 75mph. If the wind direction is just right and the Pennines create lee mountain waves, elevated cities like Sheffield could be quite badly affected in the early hours of Wednesday morning. The low will probably develop further as it crosses the N Sea so the likes of Holland and northern Germany could see gusts near 80mph.

The linked synoptic accounts gives a few more details and a look further forward to what will be a cool period of weather for the time of year into the weekend.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... 8427;sess=
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Storm Aileen (as it was named) did not live up to expectations as the swath of very strong winds did not materialise over northern England. The strongest winds were along the south coasts of both England + Wales - approx 100-200 miles south of the warned area and this shows how difficult it can be to forecast a developnig system. The lighthouse on the Needles (on the Isle of Wight) recorded gusts to 83mph and the Mumbles lighthosuie in SW Wales 74mph. Inland, the strongest winds were of the order of 50-60mph so only a few trees down. London Heathrow managed a gust of 63mph around 05hrs which was probably enhannced by convective axctivity on the cold front.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41241014

Today, after the storm, it has been cool and showery with a max of just 17*C here in Milton Keynes. On this day last year the mercury reached 34*C in London.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather in the UK has remained quite cool and showery for the last few days with thunder and hail reported daily since last Thursday (14th Sept) and with some very photogenic clouds on view. The nights have been chilly as well with single digit minimums now becoming the norm. This pattern will continue today, but it should become a little milder through the week with the winds turning round to the south - no heatwave is expected, but the nights will certainly be a lot warmer.

The CET for September was 13.6*C (-0.5*C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 66mm up to the 16th, which is 84% of the monthly average.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We had the first autumn fog that persisted into the morning today and it was quite thick in MK. I travelled up from the south coast from 5am where it was partly cloudy and 9*C with good visibility. The cloud cleared just before Oxford and in the early light I could see all of the fields wrapped in shallow fog - the temperature also dropped quickly to 6*C. By the time I got to Bicester (at 06:45) the mist in the fields had thickened to fog and this persisted all the way to Milton Keynes - about 25 miles - and gradually thickened. The fog persisted well into the morning and did not clear until around 09:30/10hrs to give a partly cloudy day and some sunny intervals with mostly clear skies after mid-afternoon and plenty of warm sunshine - max 16*C.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

One hundred years ago, and during the fury of the trenches of World War I, Lewis Fry Richardson made the first attempt at numerical weather forecasting - with paper and a pencil! His pioneering work is being celebrated this year and I am sure he would be very pleased to see how we forecast the weather today (using his method of gridded squares) and how accurate the forecasts are on a 3-5 day basis.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/barometer/ ... orecasting

The weather here in the UK has been fairly benign in the last few days with some sunshine and a little rain at times. This weekend is giving good weather to central and eastern parts, but some patchy rain out west as a Scandinavian high keeps the Atlantic fronts at bay. it should be quite warm today (Sunday) with a max of 22-23*C expected in the south east.

The CET for September was 13.4*C (-0.5*C) up to the 22nd and the EWR was 76mm up to the 21st, which is 97% of the monthly average.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Despite ridiculous tabloid headlines about a double hurricane strike on the UK this weekend, we will feel some effect from the remnants of both Hurricanes Lee and Maria. They are both south of the jet and not directly interacting with it, but the large amount of warm moist air associated with their remnants will provide some extra energy to the more normal depressions we see in autumn. The last week has been quite mild with the temperature pushing past 20*C on most days in the south, but it has become more unsettled and a little cooler in the last couple of days with some rain. The rest of the weekend and into the new week will see the cooling trend continue and some more active systems passing to the north of the UK giving the NW of the UK some wet and windy weather - nothing unusual for autumn and definitely not worthy of news headlines.

The CET for September was 13.8*C (+0.2*C) up to the 29th and the EWR was 101mm also up to the 29th which is 129% of the monthly average.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has been a little cooler in the last few days, but we have had sunshine on most days which shows off the changing colours on the trees very well. The colours started changing a couple of weeks ago and the pace should pick up now with the cooler nights with a peak towards the middle and end of the month. This is a lovely time of the year to be out and about when the weather is fine as it is still warm enough during the day to not need a coat. The next few days sees another developing low move across the north of the UK but it will still be deepening as it moves across the North Sea so the worst of the winds will affect the Netherlands, Germany and the Baltic Sea area. Here in the south of the UK it will be breezy with a little rain tomorrow (Thurs 5th Oct) but this will clear by midday to brighter and cooler conditions as a NW wind sets in.

The final CET for September was 13.5*C (-0.1*C) making it the second cooler than average month in a row, and the EWR was 106mm which is 135% of the month average.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The deepening depression crossed the middle of the UK on last Weds/Thurs night but disruption here was minimal despite a few localised gusts recorded to around 70mph. The storm deepened further as it crossed the North Sea and brought a swathe of strong winds to the Netherlands, Germany and Poland where quite a few fatalities were reported. Gusts reached 130/140kph in places.

Since then it has been fairly quiet over the UK with very average autumnal temperatures and it has been mostly dry in the southern half. The colours on the trees have not really developed further, but one sign of autumn is the fencing off of the local cricket pitch and marking out of the footie pitch as seen in the photo below. No more sounds of leather on willow now until next April. On a more positive note, we should see a final spell of warm and sunny weather this coming weekend as southerlies develop - could see 22*C in places.
Hythe & Dibden Cricket Club.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by spwill »

Some warm air getting onto central Europe early next week.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Yes indeed, spwill. A very broad ridge of high pressure is pushing NE from the Azores high and this will form a discrete (and quite big) high pressure cell over the western side of Europe by the weekend. It is already warmer than normal in Spain and we should see 35*C reached there on a couple of days. Here in the UK, it will get warmer and sunnier from Friday and we can expect highs into the low twenties centigrade over the weekend.

However, there is potentially an interesting development after the weekend. Tropical storm Ophelia is moving slowly NE in the southern part of the Atlantic (to the SW of the Azores) and will probably reach hurricane status before slowly fading. It is expected to reach close to the Bay of Biscay on Sunday and still be a tropical storm, but then the models diverge as it transitions to an extratropical system. Some outputs show it as a developing low as it accelerates NE over the UK in the early part of next week - if it does this it will fall on or near the 30th anniversary of the Great Storm of 1987. See link below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

There is a significant weather event coming to parts of the British Isles on Monday with ex-hurricane Ophelia passing close to Eire. It is currently a category 3 hurricane (max sustained winds of 115mph) and located near the Azores and appears to be the furthest east (in the Atlantic) system of this strength on record. As it moves north tomorrow and into Monday it will transition to a post-tropical system, but will engage the jet stream and develop into a strong depression as it moves up the west side of Eire where gusts to 80-90mph have been forecast. The forecast synoptic maps bear a striking resemblance to those for ex-hurricane Debbie in 1961 when gusts in excess of 100mph were observed at a number of Irish stations. The blog entry below does this topic far more justice than I can:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forec ... -on-monday

This system will have a different effect on the eastern side of the UK with very warm air being advected north on Sunday giving highs of up to 25*C on Monday which is very good for mid-October.

EDIT: blog link re-edited.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The low pressure system (ex Hurricane Ophelia) duly moved roughly NNE up the west side of Eire during Monday with a central pressure near 957mb at dawn - it then slowly filled. It brought very strong winds to much of Eire and the west coast of England + Wales with some sites recording around 100mph in gusts. The worst of the winds are now moving into N Ireland and Scotland with most of England escaping with no more than a breezy and very warm day. Sadly, there were a few fatalities in Eire:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41627442

Much of eastern England had a period of very hazy skies during the day with the sun becoming red and the light so poor that street lights came on - this was due to large amounts of Saharan dust (and smoke from fires in Iberia) being dragged north by the ex hurricane. I am now living on the south coast and we experienced this between 10am and 2pm and the photo below gives quite a good representation of how dark it was at midday and the eerie orange/yellow light that resulted.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Orion
Posts: 3994
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1367 times
Been thanked: 329 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Orion »

Such a pity there were casualties, Simon; seeing the damage in that BBC film, it's remarkable there weren't more.
Interesting to see that photo of the hazy sky.
It must have seemed most uncanny - I understand that even the birds were subdued and didn't sing as usual.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, that red/orange sky. Sort of similar to here when the Australian bush fires are their fullest. :o
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Richard »

Australian bush fires are more a blue colour than red because its smoke only
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Here in the UK the blame is being placed on Saharan dust, but we often get this and it does not normally produce such an effect. My thinking is that it was a combination of the Saharan dust and the smoke from extensive fires in Iberia. The scientists say this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-no ... e-41654436

These dust samples would have been collected on the morning of the 16th (when my car had dust deposits all over it), but the rain would have washed out much of this dust and the effect on the light spread east from mid-morning through the rest of the day. The satellite photos definitely show the fire smoke spreading north from Iberia (as well as the Saharan dust) and up to the UK thanks to the broad southerly flow on the east side of the Ophelia low.

The storm itself produced some very strong winds over Eire and the western coast of Wales on the other side of the Irish Sea. The highest reported gusts were:

Roches Point (near Cork) - 97mph (156km/hr) - highest 10 min mean 69mph (111km/hr)
Kinsale Oil Platform (off S coast of Eire) - 86mph (141km/hr)
Waterford Airport - 85mph (137km/hr)
Sherkin Island (on SW coast of Eire) - 84mph (135km/hr)
Cork Airport - 78mph (126km/hr)

The latter two were recorded before the power failed, so they could have recorded higher. The lighthouse on Fastnet Rock (where the famous yacht race turns) recorded a mean of 80kts (92mph) with gusts to 103kts (118mph) in the late morning of the 16th, although this is very exposed.

For Wales, both Aberdaron + Capel Curig reported gusts to 90mph and RAF Valley (on the island of Anglesey) to 81mph.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2315
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK
Has thanked: 591 times
Been thanked: 646 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Another autumnal storm passed over the centre of the UK yesterday but as a filling system. The strongest winds (75-85mph at exposed sites) were on the southern and western coasts and disruption was minimal. These storms are common features of the UK weather, but the media has got into the habit of overstating their effects and this has not been helped by the 'naming' of storms by the Met Office - this one was Brian. This will be the last such storm for a while as we look south for our weather for the coming week. Another pulse of warm air is destined for the more southern parts of the UK and we could see 20*C again by Weds/Thurs, but there are now some strong signals for a complete reversal after next weekend to northerly winds which will come as a bit of a shock if it happens.

The CET for October was 13.4*C (+2.2*C) up to the 20th and the EWR was 37mm also up to the 20th, which is 42% of the monthly average of 87mm.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, Brian was mentioned on the TV One news this evening.
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Richard »

Gees i hope they dont start naming depressions here, with the number of lows that we get at times you can just imagine it, "currently Mary, Bob and John are quickly passing to the south but will soon merge with Humphrey who's slowly moving down from the tropics.'
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by NZstorm »

Richard wrote: Mon 23/10/2017 06:47 Gees i hope they dont start naming depressions here, with the number of lows that we get at times you can just imagine it, "currently Mary, Bob and John are quickly passing to the south but will soon merge with Humphrey who's slowly moving down from the tropics.'

I would throw the radio away so I did not have to listen to it.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Richard wrote: Mon 23/10/2017 06:47 "currently Mary, Bob and John are quickly passing to the south but will soon merge with Humphrey who's slowly moving down from the tropics.'
Yes, Bob and John would be good names if they decided to name storms, especially after they founded, including another guy called Keith, the NZ Thunderstrom Society many years ago.
It would be an honour for them :rolleyes: :D :?:
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Richard »

Richard wrote: Mon 23/10/2017 06:47 Humphrey who's slowly
After they've started naming comes the blame game, but they'll get away with it because we'll get all this pc rubish, e.g. ADHD, eating disorders etc etc, then they'll claim they have Alcohol & Substance Abuse Symptoms due to over work thanks to climate change.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2017

Unread post by Richard »

NZstorm wrote: Mon 23/10/2017 09:10
Richard wrote: Mon 23/10/2017 06:47 Gees i hope they dont start naming depressions here, with the number of lows that we get at times you can just imagine it, "currently Mary, Bob and John are quickly passing to the south but will soon merge with Humphrey who's slowly moving down from the tropics.'

I would throw the radio away so I did not have to listen to it.
Come on, what do they say about shooting the messager
Post Reply