UK Weather - Autumn 2017

[Simon Culling]

Whilst I share your concerns about naming storms, especially when the media gets involved, we are stuck with them here in the UK. In this instance, it was Met Eireann who named the storm as for them it fitted the agreed criteria for a name to be assigned. The link below explains the basis on which naming occurs, and this can be initiated by either Met Eireann or the Met Office:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/barometer/uk-storm-centre

Back to the real weather - here in the UK it has remained mild and cloudy with patchy rain and drizzle, so the 'uninteresting' weather continues. However, after a few more mild days (we could see 20*C on Thursday if the sun puts in an appearance), the weather pattern is set to shift to a more mobile north westerly flow and this will bring a considerable drop in temperature. The models are signalling a major cool down over much of Northern Europe (this has already started) for the week ahead, with a risk of snow and frost extending to the UK in the first week of November. This is a long way off, but the signals have been there for a few days now.

[Richard]

First hints of winter maybe

[Simon Culling]

Unfortunately Richard the model predictions were a bit off and the main plunge of cold air will now be to our east over Scandinavia and central Europe. This has been a trend in recent winters with the 5-7 days predictions of a northerly plunge being consistently shunted to the east as the time frame shortens. It has turned cooler, but not to the degree first expected and there will certainly be no snow this coming week. After the first widespread autumn frost on Monday morning, it will turn milder mid-week and return to the cloudy type weather with very little happening.

The CET for October was 13.1*C (+2.2*C) up to the 27th and the EWR was just 49mm also up to the 27th which is only 56% of the monthly average - not much more in the offing for the rest of the month.

[Simon Culling]

It has become a little cooler in the last few days with plenty of hazy sunshine and misty starts. It is foggy this morning (Thurs 2nd Nov) over much of southern England, but this is a normal feature of autumn weather when the winds fall light under ridges of high pressure. It has also been mostly dry.

The dry theme looks to generally persist well into next week except for a spell of rain overnight Friday into Saturday when a small low moves north east across northern France and re-invigorates a weak cold front over the UK. This could give a reasonable fall of rain (10-20mm) but the weather will turn cooler and fresher during Saturday and dry (and hopefully sunny) weather will take over for a few days as high pressure build to our west and south west.

[Simon Culling]

There was a reasonable fall of rain Friday into Saturday with many sites in England + Wales getting 10-20mm and up to 37mm in and around Bournemouth (on the south coast - not too far from me in Hythe). A cooler north westerly flow followed the rain yesterday with plenty of sunshine and a few showers in the west, wintry over high ground. Today, Sunday 5th Nov, will be bright and sunny here in Hythe, but rather cool with a maximum of around 9*C and a frosty evening to come for Bonfire Night. Minimums by Monday morning will be down to -4*C/-5*C in rural areas, so a bit chilly.

The final CET for October was 12.4*C (+1.7*C) and the EWR just 51mm which is 58% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The alternating mild and cool weather has continued with the third weekend in a row featuring a N-NW flow persisting into the early new week. We had a sharp frost this morning (Monday 13th Nov) in quite a few places with the lowest temperatures at the usual prone sites (-5*C at both Benson + Shap Fell).

The longer term indicators are beginning to suggest more northern blocking this winter (from the end of November) and if this pattern gets established, we could be in for a colder and drier than normal winter. However, experience shows that all can change very quickly in model land so we will have to wait and see.

The CET for November was 8.3*C (+0.4*C) up to the 11th and the EWR was 32mm also up to the 11th which is 35% of the monthly average of 92mm.

[Simon Culling]

The very uninspiring weather continues in the UK with very little happening, although it has been predominantly dry here in the south. The run of colder and clearer weather at the weekend will continue this week, although it will be here a day earlier for tomorrow (Friday), but at least the sun will return and we will see a nip of frost overnight. The models are very confused about next week with a wide range of solutions, but I fear the most likely outcome will be a continuation of the quiet weather with not much happening.

The CET for November was 7.9*C (+0.3*C) up to the 14th and the EWR was only 34mm also up to the 14th, which is 37% of the monthly average.

Ben Nevis (the highest peak in the UK at 1345m) is to get a temporary automatic weather station for a month or so, with a view to lobbying for a more permanent installation. Lets hope they are successful.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41918646

[Simon Culling]

After a cooler weekend with a lovely sunny Sunday (after a nip of frost, even here on the south coast), it has turned cloudy and much milder today, Monday 20th Nov. This weather, with bits and pieces of drizzly rain, will persist for much of the week with the mercury nudging 15*C until Thursday over England and Wales. The cold air is lurking to the north and will push south again later in the week to repeat the recent pattern of cooler and fresher weather at the weekend - at least we should see the sun then.

The weather in the UK has got rather stuck in recent months with not a lot of actual 'weather' happening. As we move into La Nina conditions we would expect the NAO to turn negative and this suggests colder weather for western Europe. However, this is not a given and there are no real signs in the models of anything approaching 'winter' at the moment. At least this mild weather keeps the utility bills down!

[Simon Culling]

Despite what I said in my last post, the weather has turned rather chilly here in the UK with snowfall even to lower ground in Scotland and Ireland. A few flurries have affected England this morning giving a dusting of snow in a few places. The frost was quite sharp overnight into Saturday morning with a low of -5*C recorded across the nation - at Toplcliffe (N Yorks), Benson (Oxfordshire), Cavendish (Suffolk) + Drumnadrochit (Highland Scotland), for example. It will be a lovely sunny day today here on the south coast with a max of 6/7*C and not much wind, and this follows our first 'proper' frost this morning when many surfaces were white.

The colder weather will be with us for the next week or so with a brief milder (with some rain) interlude on Monday, but any snow will remain showery and in the north and west. The cold air streaming across the north Atlantic picks up a lot of moisture from the relatively warm sea and dumps it on the west coast + mountains.

The CET for November was 8.2*C (+1.2*C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 62mm also up to the 23rd, which is 67% of the monthly average. The CET will fall now until the end of the month, but the rainfall figure disguises quite a big north/south difference in the distribution with not much rain here in the south.

[Simon Culling]

The colder weather has continued with the coldest day likely to be today (Thursday 30th Nov) with maximum temperatures over England + Wales of only 2-5*C and snow showers down the east coast. Away from the northerly wind, the mercury fell to -6*C this morning in the west Midlands. The snow showers will move a bit further inland this evening and overnight into Friday and my old stamping ground of Milton Keynes will likely see a sprinkling of snow by the morning. No snow here on the south coast, though - just a nip of frost.

It will turn milder from Friday as the winds back to north west and then west as the high pressure to our west sinks a bit further south, but the colder weather will return next week.

CET for November was 7.5*C (+0.8*C) up to the 28th and the EWR was 76mm, also up to the 28th, which is 82% of the average.

[Simon Culling]

There was a sprinkling of snow in eastern areas on Thursday and into Friday (1st Dec) with the most in NE England where some places saw 10-15cm - even the beaches had a cover from Bridlington to Newcastle. Here on the south coast it was just cold and sunny, although I was in Somerset and did encounter a brief hail shower near the town of Chard. The nights have been frosty and the lowest temperature I could find for Thursday morning was -6.9*C at Bewcastle, which is in the NE of Cumbria and not far from the border with Scotland. Despite the late cold, November will be yet another warmer than average month.

This little video from the BBC gives a flavour of the snow - the dogs love it!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-4218785 ... ws_central

[Orion]

Happy dogs!

[Richard]

quite nice looking at snow when its 31deg outside

[Simon Culling]

As it is rather cold and dismal here at the moment, I am a little jealous of your lovely summer weather, Richard.

The final CET for November was 6.8*C, which is +0.3*C above average. The final EWR was 81mm which is 87% of the monthly average, so another dry month.

Autumn as a whole was a little warmer and drier than average, but unfortunately, a little duller overall. The figures disguise quite an unusual map for the autumnal rainfall with the dry SE being matched by a generally wetter north of the UK, but there is also a drier than average strip in southern and central Scotland. More details in the linked Met Office news release:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/relea ... statistics