NZstorm wrote: ↑Sat 14/10/2017 12:57
Looking like mainly dry weather for the next 7 days in Auckland. Good to see the stable pattern arriving.
Nice day today with Grey Lynn in a local heat bubble on 22C.
Yes, talking to someone from Auckland in Geraldine, the other day, who said that the weather up there over winter was quite horrible this winter with lots of rain, well we got lots of rain but they said it had been rather stormy as well. They were longing for anticyclonic weather up there with fine and warm days.
The winter was OK though when you look at the averages.
The season that lets Aucklands climate down is October to December when we are exposed to onshore anticyclonic flows from the SW. The inversion keeps us stuck in the cool cloudy maritime layer. Sometimes though, this pattern can generate a lot of sunshine so not necessarily always bad.
Looks like that warmer airmass due later this week is less warm now and won't make it to the NI. Inland South Island should still see some very warm readings.
At last a 'fat high' sitting over the Tasman Sea for next couple of days.
Needs to move slightly NE to allow the warm weather to develop towards the end of the week.
Was interesting yesterday - it was mainly cloudy in Parnell (central Akl) all day, even some skiffs of drizzle coming home mid PM. But when I got to Howick in the east, it was about a 50/50 sunshine & cloud mix and had been for several hours. Weather station got to 19.3C compared to 15C on the west coast.
Not really on topic - but with all the talk one hears about the typically unsettled regimes prevailing in Spring, I though I would (?re?) post this:
Better Septembers (compiled in September 2010)
As this one is looking pretty unappealing at the moment, it is an interesting distraction to have a look at a run of Septembers that were generally much pleasanter in every way. Averaged over the period 1949-1961, pressures overall in New Zealand were well above the long term means, especially in central regions. At Kelburn the mean was 1019.7 hPa, 5.2hPA above the 99-year average, and 2.5 hPa above the March value (the second highest monthly mean) over the same timespan. The anomaly was even greater for the decade 1950-1959.
Nearly all of these Septembers were either drier or sunnier than average – or both – and most slightly warmer as well. The outstanding one was September 1958, a very settled month which was exceptionally sunny in some parts, the surplus sunshine being about 70% in parts of Manawatu. Most of the others were significantly sunnier overall, and many were rather dry, especially in central areas (*). The “nearby” Septembers of 1947 and 1962 were also benign. This pattern, combined with several very unsettled endings to spring in the south and west of the South Island, could be later borne in mind when I heard various Dunedin relatives summarising springs there along the lines of “fair in September, poor in November”.
Some noteworthy items:
27.8C maximum at Fairlie on 24 September 1955.
Runs of average or drier Septembers at many locations, including –
Alexandra 1947-1959 (except 1951)
Coleridge 1949-1959
Hamilton 1947-1959
Woodville 1945-1960 (except 1951)
For the period 1946-1958 (so a 10-year overlap with the above), September sunshine averaged about 218 hours at Nelson and 216 at Blenheim, both almost 25 hours above the longterm means.
(*) The main unfavourable anomalies were excessive rainfall in the north and northeast of the North Island in 1960, and generally cold conditions in eastern areas in 1961.
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Sat 21/10/2017 08:25
EC is starting to show a higher K-index on Monday now and GFS is also on board. Certainly looking unstable at this stage
I like the K index. But I think it needs to be used in conjunction with the total totals.
The K index best indicates moisture whereas as the total totals best reflect the lapse rate. The typical North Island thunderstorm set up has K index 28 or higher and TT 51 or higher. They are still only a rough guide of coarse.
Latest GFS has backed down on the instability on Monday.
David wrote: ↑Sat 21/10/2017 08:34
Was interesting yesterday - it was mainly cloudy in Parnell (central Akl) all day, even some skiffs of drizzle coming home mid PM. But when I got to Howick in the east, it was about a 50/50 sunshine & cloud mix and had been for several hours. Weather station got to 19.3C compared to 15C on the west coast.
There is definitely a thermal gradient across Auckland in SW. Airport is cooler whereas St Heliers or Browns Bay for example can be warmer, sunnier. But its all in reverse in a NE.
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Sat 21/10/2017 08:25
EC is starting to show a higher K-index on Monday now and GFS is also on board. Certainly looking unstable at this stage
I like the K index. But I think it needs to be used in conjunction with the total totals.
The K index best indicates moisture whereas as the total totals best reflect the lapse rate. The typical North Island thunderstorm set up has K index 28 or higher and TT 51 or higher. They are still only a rough guide of coarse.
Latest GFS has backed down on the instability on Monday.
So for the SI you would look at 30+ and TT's of 55?
