General October Weather

[jamie]

50mm in rural south Auckland two days ago. That was in about an hour I'm told.

75mm in an hour between pirongia and otorohanga yesterday. Both days have caused roading damage due to flash flooding.

[wembley]

Would these "bomb lows" help cool down the sea like hurricanes do?

[spwill]

Medium range weather looking much more stable.
Typically we start to see a lot more ridging over northern NZ by mid October with the cold upper troughs a bit further south.

[NZstorm]

50mm in rural south Auckland two days ago. That was in about an hour I'm told.

75mm in an hour between pirongia and otorohanga yesterday. Both days have caused roading damage due to flash flooding.

Th Pirongia storm last about 3 hours with a persistent propagation over that area. I thought someone would have got massive rainfall down that way. There are no online weather stations in that area.

[melja]

An amazing lightning display in the clouds south of Chch right now

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

[NZstorm]

Medium range weather looking much more stable.
Typically we start to see a lot more ridging over northern NZ by mid October with the cold upper troughs a bit further south.

yes, the so called winter thunderstorm season about to shut down. Can't see anything on the horizon for us, may be end of month. Winter thunderstorm season runs while the polar trough dominates, which is typically May to October.

[Richard]

And for us down here its the start of our thunder storm season, i really look forward to the summer storms that this area gets that the Canterbury plains see little of, the slow moving to stationery convergence storms that remain warm with little wind if you happen to be underneath them.

More heavy rain again this morning when is enough become too much?, nearly there

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, I normally use the time of year between October and March for the thunderstorm season for Canterbury, the one over the Port Hills early this morning is a surpise exception, as it occured at an unusual time of the day and was not associated with an usual thunderstorm event set-up that usually occurs in the afternoon when daytime heating or a keen ENE gives into a cold southerly change under low surface atmospheric pressures.

[wembley]

What summer thunderstorms there are in Dunedin last all of five minutes and a usually associated with a cold front.

[David]

Signs of warmer weather developing mid week next week and lasting into the long weekend

[jamie]

Signs of warmer weather developing mid week next week and lasting into the long weekend

Yea I see low 20's to mid 20's across the North Island on Thursday next week according to GFS.

[Tornado Tim]

I still see quite a bit of southern influence happening in the next 2-3 weeks, surface temps are now rising and going by the models we have a cool upper level cold pools coming, which will be very interesting.

[Orion]

Crossed the Selwyn River at State Highway 1 today and observed it had a broad channel of turbid water flowing; I've possibly seen it flow clear before, but first time for me seeing it like this. Even someone boating on it this afternoon!
Much standing water in paddocks around Ohoka and Kaiapoi.
Sunny Spring day.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

So the flow in the Selwyn River is still there at the State Highway one bridge.
Haven't seen that for years, must of been flowing since the July rains..
Would this clean out the guck from Coes and Chamberlain Fords which have been closed down as picnic areas in the summer because of health reasons from algea in the water at those fords?

[mikestormchaser]

Yes, I normally use the time of year between October and March for the thunderstorm season for Canterbury, the one over the Port Hills early this morning is a surpise exception, as it occured at an unusual time of the day and was not associated with an usual thunderstorm event set-up that usually occurs in the afternoon when daytime heating or a keen ENE gives into a cold southerly change under low surface atmospheric pressures.

Yes I agree John. Usually between now and march is the Canterbury storm season. Hoping for a few good set ups this summer. A typical scenario for me would be a frontal band that moves through in the morning with rain. Witch clears, and a ridge opens up with a cold upper trough coming up in the afternoon.. normally then you might get a NE develop before the SW change and that's a good set up for a supercell

[NZstorm]

Looking like a fine weekend for Auckland for a change although we will still have the coolish feeling SW.

Another thunderstorm set up for the eastern South Island tomorrow.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Went to Methven today. Nice and warm there, must of been in the mid twenties.
Clear skies this afternoon and a fresh NW blowing.
Stopped at the junk shop Collectables in Mayfield and then a rather fresh southerly blew in and the temperature must of dropped by a few degrees. Clear skies apart from the odd fair weather Cu around the place. I see Dunedin had a thunderstorm this afternoon with cloud to cloud strikes reported.
Nothing like that here but might be a different tomorrow hence my new posting.
Fingers crossed

[NZstorm]

That heat bubble crossing the country later next week will generate temps in the high 20's for some inland parts of both Islands. Maybe an October record or two.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The Hadley cell showing clear signs of moving southward at the moment, IMO.

[NZstorm]

Looking like mainly dry weather for the next 7 days in Auckland. Good to see the stable pattern arriving.

Nice day today with Grey Lynn in a local heat bubble on 22C.

[David]

Turned into a lovely day, mostly sunny with gentle breezes. Very pleasant 21C, warmest day of Spring so far.

[Tornado Tim]

Looking like mainly dry weather for the next 7 days in Auckland. Good to see the stable pattern arriving.

Nice day today with Grey Lynn in a local heat bubble on 22C.

GFS is suggesting that, ECMWF is not especially 5 days+ progression at least.

But yes, in the meantime its looking more settled which is a nice change.

[Richard]

Two lovely days in a row here now ,yesterday 22deg and today maxed out at 20deg, things growing like crazy with all this water about

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looking like mainly dry weather for the next 7 days in Auckland. Good to see the stable pattern arriving.

Nice day today with Grey Lynn in a local heat bubble on 22C.

Yes, talking to someone from Auckland in Geraldine, the other day, who said that the weather up there over winter was quite horrible this winter with lots of rain, well we got lots of rain but they said it had been rather stormy as well. They were longing for anticyclonic weather up there with fine and warm days.

[Richard]

The SW wind change this morning has produced inland showers and not coastal like forcasted, for some reason the computer models haven't learnt from past gathered data that SW wind changes (only talking SW here) that from Oct-March they effect mostly inland as opposed to coastal areas, the other way around during the colder months.