General October Weather

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Warm and sunny down here and 24C.
Some cloud to the west but rather flat.

[Richard]

Yes, feeling like summer alright. Another day of NW winds here today and third day in a row over 24deg, 25.4deg today.

[NZstorm]

I see its 25C in Invercargill. Warmest spot in North Island is Gisborne on 22C.

[Richard]

Invercargill does well with a northerly wind

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Regarding the thunderstorm on Thursday night here, My wife, Andrea sent a message to MetService on her Facebook page to enquire why the thunderstorm wasn't mentioned on their Thunderstorm Risk Warning Page for the day. She allowed me to put their reply on the forum.

Here is their response

"Hi Andrea. Yes, that thunderstorm formed in situ, and was not expected.
Thunderstorms are difficult to forecast, and rely on a lot of different 'ingredients' coming together at once. Our thunderstorm charts show risk areas, whereas the ingredients for thunderstorms seem most likely to come together. However, sometimes everything looks to be adding up, but they don't happen.Equally,sometimes weather models may not portray one of the factors correctly, and this can mean thunderstorms do happen when not expected. This was the case yesterday. Of course, our aim is to be as accurate as possible, but there is an inherent margin of error in the work that we do. Thunderstorms are one of those things that be quite difficult to forecast. We do appreciate you writing in with your feedback, and I hope this can clear things up for you. CF"

[Richard]

Over the last year or so there's been more storms here on days without a low risk than with. Then there was CHCH that morning a week or so back
as well.

I dont understand why there's been so much NW wind here over the last day or so considering there's only one isobar over NZ

[NZstorm]

Regarding the thunderstorm on Thursday night here[/b] CF"

I had studied that set up in the 2 days prior and the modelling was showing the potential instability (when you looked at the model sounding) but less clear was a forcing mechanism. But as we know now a southerly change came up the coast to trigger the storm.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Regarding the thunderstorm on Thursday night here[/b] CF"

But as we know now a southerly change came up the coast to trigger the storm.

In a Jim Hickey sort of sense, there was a rodent out there and come up and triggered things off.

[Richard]

Looking a lot more promising today i think, the NW has buggered of and what little cloud there is around the hill is stationary unlike the lat two mornings.

[NZstorm]

Looking a lot more promising today i think, the NW has buggered of and what little cloud there is around the hill is stationary unlike the lat two mornings.

The lapse rates are a bit better today for deeper convection over upper South Island. You would be better off seeing lots of low cloud in the morning as you want to be seeing the moisture.

Tomorrow looks potentially a very convective day with lapse rates 7.2C lower half of the South Island.

[Richard]

That moisture would have to come in from the east once the heating gets going, now that the NW has gone.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Some Cu towers going up inland from here, the one near Mt. Peel could go thundery.

[Richard]

Hearing thunder to the west, some spectacular cloud formations right around the foothills.

[Richard]

[Thunder081]

Over the Northern Tararua Ranges:

DSCF6214.jpg

Cbs near Palmerston North:

DSCF6217.jpg

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

the one near Mt. Peel could go thundery.

It didn't
Nice pictures there Richard....and thunder 81
Cu congestus towers going up but fading away as quick as they rise.

[jamie]

Could see all the cb tops down in the lower north island from here this evening.

[Thunder081]

Yeah metconnect costs too much it is not a viable option for us weather enthusiasts you'd think that since in NZ is becoming more and more of a nanny state that the govt (has anyone seen any indication that the new govt supports open weather data?) would be making this data more open for public safety.

[NZstorm]

Yeah metconnect costs too much it is not a viable option for us weather enthusiasts you'd think that since in NZ is becoming more and more of a nanny state that the govt (has anyone seen any indication that the new govt supports open weather data?) would be making this data more open for public safety.

I was thinking a new government could be an opportunity but then again they likely would not want to interfere with the cash flow from Met Service.

Also, the Met Service appear to have a protectionist philosophy. I tried to buy Met Flight recently to access the metars ( for surface obs at airports like Milford Sound) and they wouldn't sell it to me because I was not a pilot.

[Thunder081]

Yeah metconnect costs too much it is not a viable option for us weather enthusiasts you'd think that since in NZ is becoming more and more of a nanny state that the govt (has anyone seen any indication that the new govt supports open weather data?) would be making this data more open for public safety.

I was thinking a new government could be an opportunity but then again they likely would not want to interfere with the cash flow from Met Service.

Also, the Met Service appear to have a protectionist philosophy. I tried to buy Met Flight recently to access the metars ( for surface obs at airports like Milford Sound) and they wouldn't sell it to me because I was not a pilot.

Yeah I definitely agree that they have a protectionist philosophy there was a guy who made a rain radar for a uni project but when he told metservice about it they got all shitty at him. You can see some photos of it here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater

[03Stormchaser]

Can't see what issue MS have with him doing this!

Sent from my VIE-L09 using Tapatalk

[Thunder081]

Can't see what issue MS have with him doing this!

Sent from my VIE-L09 using Tapatalk

Well maybe they were initially but that's what one of my friends who knows the guy told me. In this document about the project (very interesting btw) it says that metservice did assist him by providing raw radar data and access to radar accumulation products.

[Rogue]

Amazing that they managed to capture that Ardmore tornado, must have been satisfying seeing those results

Easy to forget how incredibly complicated some of the technology we rely on is, after reading that paper haha

[David]

I see it was Auckland's cloudiest October on record with 73% of normal sunshine hours, could certainly believe that. Was a dreary month!

[NZstorm]

Some interesting numbers for October 2017

Queenstown only recorded 5mm and Wanaka 3mm for the month.

Queenstown had 264hours of sunshine compared to Auckland Mangere 129hours. Both new October records.

Cromwell recorded 28.6C on the 19th and 30C on the 20th.