Storms Eastern NZ 10 &11th Oct

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Richard
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Storms Eastern NZ 10 &11th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

A moderate risk for much of eastern NZ should be worthy of its own thread, just needing the low cloud thats in the Amuri basin to clear, lots of residual moisture after the resent rains, cool air aloft plus daytime heating \:D/


From the MS

Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 10 Oct 2017

Issued at: 9:15am Tuesday 10 Oct 2017

Daytime heating is expected to increase instability over the lower and central North Island this afternoon and showers are expected to develop. There is a moderate risk that some of these may be thundery in the afternoon and evening in Taihape, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa, including the Tararua District.These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour and hail. There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a broader area including the Tararua Range, inland Manawatu and Whanganui, the central North Island high country, Bay of Plenty and Rotorua as indicated on the chart.

Cool temperatures at upper levels and surface heating are also likely to generate some significant showers over the South Island, especially about inland areas of Nelson, Marlborough, Canterbury, Otago and Southland, where there is a moderate risk some of these may be thundery. These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour and hail. A lower risk extends to eastern coastal areas.

In the evening, a front is expected to move east onto the South Island and Taranaki. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the far north of Westland, Buller and in the far west of Nelson in the evening and at night as indicated on the chart. There is a low risk in a slightly broader area and Taranaki as indicated.

No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.
thunderstormOutlookImage.gif
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Last edited by Richard on Wed 11/10/2017 06:41, edited 2 times in total.
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03Stormchaser
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Upper air isnt that cold, but can see the risk. Off work at 3:30pm so may chase if there is something not to far away

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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Thunder »

I'm in the right spot but have to go into Christchurch for work, arghh! Always when I'm going the opposite dam direction. lol.
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I agree with Steve but will keep an eye out down here :smile:
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Richard
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

some good looking buildups to my SW at the moment, got that 'could do' look to em.
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

Looking S- SW
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nice one Richard.
Nothing like that down here, mainly because I'm here :rolleyes:
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Orion »

81% humidity at my place, definitely some bubbly cloud to the west of Ashburton at present. :-k
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

Active thunder storm to my NE, lots of deep rumbles. A moderate NW wind sprung up about 2,00 killing any likelihood of storms around here.
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

The storm system to my east has grown into a monster, i see now the MS have a warning out on it
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Just been "up to the Downs" for a wee looksee.
Nothing much but there is definately a bit of instability with come Cu development through the lower clouds.
Interesting, looks as though there is coastal low cloud or sea-fog looking in the other direction. :smile:
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Razor »

MS severe TS warning for Cheviot area. Large hail and even tornado risk?

As reported on RadioLive 5pm news
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nice tower going up N to NW of here in beyond Mt. Peel but obscured now with low cloud moving in Humidity at 72% here @ the moment. :smile:
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Razor wrote: Tue 10/10/2017 17:13 MS severe TS warning for Cheviot area. Large hail and even tornado risk?

As reported on RadioLive 5pm news
I wonder what the tornado risk is based on? Radar be to far away to accurately forecast this.
20171010-P1140619.jpg
From Rolleston, actually not Thunderstorm related at all, just a nice cloud!
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

"Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been lifted for Canterbury radar area"

Anyone screenshot it? Wouldnt mind seeing what they said
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

Dont know whats worse at stuffing up the storm chances, your coastal low cloud John or that cursed NW wind that we got here today
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

03Stormchaser wrote: Tue 10/10/2017 17:49
Razor wrote: Tue 10/10/2017 17:13 MS severe TS warning for Cheviot area. Large hail and even tornado risk?

As reported on RadioLive 5pm news
I wonder what the tornado risk is based on? Radar be to far away to accurately forecast this.
20171010-P1140619.jpg

From Rolleston, actually not Thunderstorm related at all, just a nice cloud!
I would have wondered about any tornado risk too
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Flutterbye »

Meanwhile, there have been thunderstorms rolling around Invercargill since 5pm. I see they've just changed the forecast to 'Rain, possibly heavy and thundery' Well duh, it was the thunderstorms that dropped the rain. It's finally moved to the NE.
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Nev »

03Stormchaser wrote: Tue 10/10/2017 17:50 "Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been lifted for Canterbury radar area"

Anyone screenshot it? Wouldnt mind seeing what they said
Here ya go...
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

Thunderstorm Warning(s) in force for:

Canterbury Radar Area


MetService Severe T-storm Warning - Is. at 04.39pm, Oct 10.gif

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Issued by MetService at 04:39 pm Tuesday 10 October 2017.
Valid until 05:30 pm Tuesday 10 October 2017.

This warning affects people in the following local government areas:
HURUNUI.

At 04:30 pm, MetService weather radar detected severe thunderstorms near CULVERDEN, WAIAU and LOWRY PEAKS RANGE.

These severe thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast, and are expected to lie near CHEVIOT and LOWRY PEAKS RANGE at 05:00 pm and near CHEVIOT, PARNASSUS, DOMETT and BLYTHE VALLEY at 05:30 pm.

These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by very heavy rain, large hail, damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes.

Very heavy rain can cause surface and/or flash flooding about streams, gullies and urban areas, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous.

Large hail can cause significant damage to crops, orchards, vines, glasshouses and vehicles, and make driving conditions hazardous.

Very strong wind gusts can break branches from trees, damage roofing, and make driving hazardous especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.

Tornadoes can blow out windows, lift roofs, break large branches off trees, generate dangerous flying debris and blow vehicles off the road.

The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management advises that as storms approach you should:
- Take shelter, preferably indoors away from windows;
- Avoid sheltering under trees, if outside;
- Move cars under cover or away from trees;
- Secure any loose objects around your property;
- Check that drains and gutters are clear;
- Be ready to slow down or stop, if driving.
During and after the storm, you should also:
- Beware of fallen trees and power lines;
- Avoid streams and drains as you may be swept away in flash flooding.

This warning is due to be updated or lifted by 05:30 pm Tuesday 10 October 2017.
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03Stormchaser
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

So yes there was quite a large funnel cloud not far from you Richard

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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Chris W »

I see the moderate risk has been extended east, now including Chch. Sky has looked somewhat threatening all afternoon and early evening 0_o
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Chris W »

Richard wrote: Tue 10/10/2017 14:02Looking S- SW
Great shot =D>
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

03Stormchaser wrote: Tue 10/10/2017 18:42 So yes there was quite a large funnel cloud not far from you Richard

https://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers ... 418798045/
Well there ya go =D>
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Richard »

Chris W wrote: Tue 10/10/2017 18:52
Richard wrote: Tue 10/10/2017 14:02Looking S- SW
Great shot =D>
Thanks Chris, heifers weren't overly interested though [-X
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Re: Storms Eastern NZ 10th Oct

Unread post by Captain Salty »

in the low res radar from 6:06 to 6:28 looks like a hook formed in the cell to the east of kaikoura. Is that a tornado signature?