From the MS
Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 10 Oct 2017
Issued at: 9:15am Tuesday 10 Oct 2017
Daytime heating is expected to increase instability over the lower and central North Island this afternoon and showers are expected to develop. There is a moderate risk that some of these may be thundery in the afternoon and evening in Taihape, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa, including the Tararua District.These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour and hail. There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a broader area including the Tararua Range, inland Manawatu and Whanganui, the central North Island high country, Bay of Plenty and Rotorua as indicated on the chart.
Cool temperatures at upper levels and surface heating are also likely to generate some significant showers over the South Island, especially about inland areas of Nelson, Marlborough, Canterbury, Otago and Southland, where there is a moderate risk some of these may be thundery. These storms may be accompanied by heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour and hail. A lower risk extends to eastern coastal areas.
In the evening, a front is expected to move east onto the South Island and Taranaki. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the far north of Westland, Buller and in the far west of Nelson in the evening and at night as indicated on the chart. There is a low risk in a slightly broader area and Taranaki as indicated.
No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.
