NZ Weather Forum

Tomorrow is shaping up for a good chase day for inland E SI

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Strong instability around tomorrow! Definately looking a bang to start off November and officially what you might call the start of the Canterbury storm season

Sat/Sun looking interesting on the BOM, some pretty cold air crashing into the recent warm air and making it as far north as North Canterbury. Looking like the westerlies are returning.

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Tue 31/10/2017 14:20 Strong instability around tomorrow! Definately looking a bang to start off November and officially what you might call the start of the Canterbury storm season

Yes. MS have the a risk for the possibility of thunderstorms for around here tomorrow so they wont get caught out like last Thursday.

How's it been looking out your way today Richard? Some strong turkeys going up your way I see today and there's a storm north of you. I hear the serferics on the am radio driving home today. So it's active!

All development to the west Mike, heard a few rumbles, then a weaker cb's popped up SE of here in the last 10mins

Light winds aloft with these storms so they are slow moving pulse type. Maybe isolated flash flooding tomorrow in east Otago and Southland.

Weekend weather for the North Island looks like being disrupted yet again by a stationary front. Isolated heavyfalls on the cards. Dewpoints 17C modeled so moist air.

Looking like timaru south and inland will get isolated downpours later today. You could well catch a storm john.

Monday next week looks interesting to.

Cloudy and misty here this morning but that is clearing off.
Some bubbly Cu going up over to the foothills to the west.

Looking more promising today than yesterday with cloud popping up around where yesterday it was only along the foothills

Start of November is continuing the pattern of October here - cloudy skies. At least it's sort of warm though with 19C.

Some interesting projections for around Nov 8th / 9th at the moment. EC showing a decent cold core cyclonic gyre launching into the South Island along with prefrontal outer bands water bombing the North island. Access G is getting a little excited as well. One to keep an eye on.

Lots of bubbly Cu congestus towers going up to the west this afternoon but sky is too hazy for any good observation. Went for a walk into town, just before and noticed a large Cb inland to the south.
Looks as though thunderstorms are firing up further more to the south but sky is too hazy to see right away into the distance.

Boil up showers are neat. What are the favoured spots for them to form/rain upon in the inland lower south island?

dogmelon wrote: ↑Wed 01/11/2017 17:21 Boil up showers are neat. What are the favoured spots for them to form/rain upon in the inland lower south island?

GFS surface wind chart for 4pm today from the BSCH site. Shows the convergence zones today quite well.

Higher terrain is also a factor today. The moisture is being lifted into the hills/ranges which makes the air mass more unstable.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Wed 01/11/2017 18:19

dogmelon wrote: ↑Wed 01/11/2017 17:21 Boil up showers are neat. What are the favoured spots for them to form/rain upon in the inland lower south island?

GFS surface wind chart for 4pm today from the BSCH site. Shows the convergence zones today quite well.

Higher terrain is also a factor today. The moisture is being lifted into the hills/ranges which makes the air mass more unstable.

Ah, I see, sweet. Thanks for that. So the sweet spot depends upon the "set up" of a given day. In this case the Lake Benmore area and to the SSE was it for today going by the radar, which agrees with that model.

I see Canterbury the hot spot today with 26C in Christchurch.

Overcaste in Auckland with 20C.

Beautiful cycle home with that warm following wind.

Metservice going all out for heavy rain in the west and severe gales in the east of the south island on Tuesday into Wednesday, isobars get very tight overnight over Westland and Otago.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2017 18:39 I see Canterbury the hot spot today with 26C in Christchurch.

Geraldine the same here with it getting up to 25.9C.

Was not expecting such a warm humid night. A low of 16.7 over night. First uncomfortable night of the summer.

I see up to 75mm over those Waitomo hills from the front so far. Front will make eastward progress today and cross the NI. Cloud bases are high in Auckland which suggests to me we will get off lightly. GFS is modelling some instability over Northland this afternoon which could trigger heavy precip.

Glad to see the bulk of the rain has been south Waikato.

Unfortunately only 6mm rain here today, thought we'd get more. Garden could use a good watering.

Lots of warm water getting pushed by the strong La Nina looking easterlies across the Pacific at the moment. Interesting localised spike off the east coast of SI.

Strong and gusty westerly breezes in Ashburton this morning, observed a lot of fresh leaves and a few twigs shredded off trees. Wind feels chilly also.