NZ Weather Forum

Rain all day so far in waikawa Picton just light stuff but the forecast is for fine.

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My 2 cents worth looking into the next 7 days using EC as a base. Tropical and mid latitude weather pattern is under going significant shift and seasonal change IMO.

For the NZ region the highs are sitting a bit further south than normal for November.

Modelling showing upper level toughing coming onto NZ at the end of the week. This will enhance the afternoon shower risk.

Yes its looking promising, and over a few days too.

The afternoon shower risk for Auckland this week looks minimal, however we may see an afternoon shower pattern here next week.

Be great if the models can stay with this Monday coming

Cyclone Tracy wrote:My 2 cents worth looking into the next 7 days using EC as a base. Tropical and mid latitude weather pattern is under going significant shift and seasonal change IMO.

2004 had an "early summer" in November then December was awful. Hope don't see that again.

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cbm wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2017 13:17

Cyclone Tracy wrote:My 2 cents worth looking into the next 7 days using EC as a base. Tropical and mid latitude weather pattern is under going significant shift and seasonal change IMO.

2004 had an "early summer" in November then December was awful. Hope don't see that again.

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That was a weak El Nino year, stongly doubt we will see the cold unstable southwest pattern of December 2005.

spwill wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2017 13:32

cbm wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2017 13:17 2004 had an "early summer" in November then December was awful. Hope don't see that again.

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That was a weak El Nino year, stongly doubt we will see the cold unstable southwest pattern of December 2005.

Yes, its certainly an interesting set up. For me its still a little to early to tell on what past years you could compare it too but imo it's looking like a 2010 - 2011 summer set up at the moment.

There has been no early summer in Auckland this year. But today fine 23C.

Will a hot November lead to a crappy January?

wembley wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2017 16:35 Will a hot November lead to a crappy January?

I think Central Otago is in for a hot summer.

Great day today. 24.8 and little wind today. Very still this evening and warm. Still 23.6 right now.

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2017 15:19

spwill wrote: ↑Mon 20/11/2017 13:32

That was a weak El Nino year, stongly doubt we will see the cold unstable southwest pattern of December 2005.

Yes, its certainly an interesting set up. For me its still a little to early to tell on what past years you could compare it too but imo it's looking like a 2010 - 2011 summer set up at the moment.

Certainly don't want another December 2010 here. 2007-2008 would be much nicer.

South Pole temps showing signs that the Polar vortex is in stress mode. I can't see what will change this pattern in the near future. Frontal systems are almost non existent ATM in the mid latitudes. Hadley cell is positioning itself for a Super Ridge set up around NZ. This is starting to become fascinating from my point of view

edit: Also for those interested, I just posted footage from the Hurricane Maria eyewall. 3 minutes of action that needs to be seen to be believed. viewtopic.php?f=9&t=5718&p=171089#p171089

Feeling like summer has arrived, mainly sunny skies and 24C the last 2 days.

Not here.
I wish this useless anticyclone would move an establishing ridge to the east of the SI to bring us some sunshine instead of this coastal 'anticyclonic gloom' that keeps on hanging around.

GFS 192hr accumulated rainfall chart tells the story for the next 7 days. Mainly dry near the coast but heavy pm showers inland.

Hasnt been to bad here, 50/50 cloud/sun, but still looking forward to what looks like a week of inland showers coming up
, cant remember the last time there was such a long period of one weather pattern.

looks like the blocking pattern seen in the Northern Hemisphere last few years

treetopkk wrote: ↑Tue 21/11/2017 20:36 looks like the blocking pattern seen in the Northern Hemisphere last few years

Hi treetopkk. I think there was a blocking pattern over NZ last summer too, certainly before Xamas. We had persistent SW flow then.

Stuff reporting a very small funnel cloud over Te Aurora today

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/991139 ... l-downpour

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Ah not surprised to see a funnel appeared. I watched it all develop and thought there was a chance.

like this pattern better NZstorm !!!