Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

An intense low is forecasted to move across southern districts on Tuesday.
Lets see how this pans out.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th Novemder

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

EC has liked this beast for a while now. Latest run has a Tasman freight train bombing at 967 hPa half between Invercargill and Dunedin early Wednesday morning. Basically a water bomb on the west coast of South Island, with a prefrontal sub tropical water slide into the north island. Wind spinning out of the cold core gyre on the western flank will be a touch nasty across a wide area. I'd say the MetService severe weather team will be clocking up some overtime with this one.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th Novemder

Unread post by NZstorm »

850mb temperature chart for 12Z Tuesday. A big thermal contrast over the SI with this low.

Snow looking possible in inland Otago/Southland to 500m?

Alpine thunder north of Cook. And gfs hints at convection over the upper North Island as there is an influx of moisture. Not sure about that though, 500mb temps will be warm.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Orion
Posts: 3994
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1367 times
Been thanked: 329 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th Novemder

Unread post by Orion »

Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 03/11/2017 22:26 EC has liked this beast for a while now. Latest run has a Tasman freight train bombing at 967 hPa half between Invercargill and Dunedin early Wednesday morning. Basically a water bomb on the west coast of South Island, with a prefrontal sub tropical water slide into the north island. Wind spinning out of the cold core gyre on the western flank will be a touch nasty across a wide area. I'd say the MetService severe weather team will be clocking up some overtime with this one.
A beast, a freight train, a water bomb and a water slide - sounds wonderfully exciting :lol:
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th Novemder

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The German model going a touch extreme on the 18z run for a SI northerly wrap around assault on Tuesday night. Other models thinking lesser and that the gyre will launch 120 to 140 km/h gusts in exposed areas of SI and NI.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Thunder081
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed 22/08/2012 00:10
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 140 times
Been thanked: 464 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th Novemder

Unread post by Thunder081 »

Orion wrote: Sun 05/11/2017 10:03
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Fri 03/11/2017 22:26 EC has liked this beast for a while now. Latest run has a Tasman freight train bombing at 967 hPa half between Invercargill and Dunedin early Wednesday morning. Basically a water bomb on the west coast of South Island, with a prefrontal sub tropical water slide into the north island. Wind spinning out of the cold core gyre on the western flank will be a touch nasty across a wide area. I'd say the MetService severe weather team will be clocking up some overtime with this one.
A beast, a freight train, a water bomb and a water slide - sounds wonderfully exciting :lol:
:lol: :lol:
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
User avatar
Thunder081
Posts: 469
Joined: Wed 22/08/2012 00:10
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 140 times
Been thanked: 464 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th Novemder

Unread post by Thunder081 »

Yeah MS will probably say 130 - 140 km/h gusts for exposed areas of Wellington.
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th Novemder

Unread post by NZstorm »

Latest gfs suggests some snow flurries as low as 300m in Southland on Wednesday morning. 500m in inland Otago. Unseasonal snow fall for the higher roads.
Bradley
Posts: 1516
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th Novemder

Unread post by Bradley »

Places like Lake Tekapo could be right in the firing line with around 15-25cm of snow overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Mid Canterbury looks more like 800m snowline at this stage...
tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by tich »

Undercutting might affect snow levels in the east should the cold change be preceded be strong, moist northwesterly flow.
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by melja »

I can't understand why the chch forecast for Tuesday doesn't match there warning with only a mention of strong northerlies not 100kph NW. Most people probably only read the brief forecast.ImageImage

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, the same for here down Timaru way.
Maybe it won't be as strong along the coast but mainly an inland event?
JohnGaul
NZThS
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by melja »

Warning says 130kph inland and 100kph further east.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Richard »

They have Culverden with nothing over 15kmph, mind you Culverden never gets strong wind forecasts
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

The gyre is starting to spin off NSW. Check out the 2,500 km line of sparks spawning from trough connected to the developing surface low..... :smile:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, sadly dying out before reaching New Zealand, because of this rodent's quick movement to the SE.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Orion
Posts: 3994
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1367 times
Been thanked: 329 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Orion »

I'm confused by the term "gyre" which it seems should refer to the rotation of water within an ocean?

As for "rodent" 0_o

:D
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

The way I understand the term "rodent", is usually when a polar system starts separating itself from the main longwave trough as it progresses north/northwest and starts behaving like a rodent (ie: scarpering in whatever direction).

Some very very tight isobars in the latest prognostic ECMWF run, the upperhalf of the South Island is going to experience some very strong winds coming up. Parts of North Island getting to strong Gale Wednesday/late Thursday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Richard »

Tornado Tim wrote: Tue 07/11/2017 10:26

Some very very tight isobars in the latest prognostic ECMWF run, the upperhalf of the South Island is going to experience some very strong winds coming up.

And this is why i think the MS saying that average winds speeds for the likes of Culverden, Omarama and Twizel are ridiculously low, 19, 22,and 20kmph, but like i posted earlier none of these towns have ever had strong winds forcasted over at least the last 6+years that i remember.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Core is starting to organise on the 1pm snapshot.

@Orion, I use the term gyre as the surface layer circulates in sync with the atmosphere kicking off the cyclogenesis. The mother of all gyres is the Asian monsoon gyre, that spawns the Super Typhoons http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Monsoon_gyre :D
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

Atmospheric river now running at 35 to 45mm. Sub tropical waterslide targeting the upper North Island for tomorrow morning. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
Orion
Posts: 3994
Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
Has thanked: 1367 times
Been thanked: 329 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Orion »

Tornado Tim - thanks for the "rodent" explanation - my researches show that the term may have been used by Jim Hickey, but having no television it kind of passed me by :mrgreen:

Cyclone Tracy - thanks re "gyre" which I had more associated with much larger systems.

A fresh NNW breeze has sprung up here in the past hour or so.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Cloudy with a light northerly here but looking as though it is raining along the Alps.
Yes, Jim Hickey used the word 'rodent' quite often in describing situations like this.
Also he conned the phrase "A gone-burger" when such a system had moved on.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Cyclone Tracy
Posts: 2488
Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
Location: North Shore, Auckland
Has thanked: 771 times
Been thanked: 1719 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Cyclone Tracy »

A couple of private weather stations around Wellington have just clocked around 110 km/h
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Intense Low Tuesday 7th November

Unread post by Richard »

Winds been coming and going, light at the moment though
Locked