Thundery possibilities 15th-16th November North Island

[NZstorm]

An active 500mb trough persists over the upper North Island today(Waikato to Northland) and further convection looking likely with day time heating/sea breezes. Convection is quite low topped again today but good CAPE under 500mb.

Thursday looking more central NI but have to see where the moisture is. Deep layer lapse rates will be steep across the whole of the NI tomorrow.

500mb chart for 7pm today.

[Cyclone Tracy]

CU is bubbling away but the strong easterly is capping conditions here for the moment. Looks like nice surface wind convergence in central NI tomorrow with some moisture to the mix, hopefully the easterly doesn't blow to hard around Auckland to give it a chance.

[spwill]

The easterly should be less of a problem over western Waikato, however the heating may not be very good down there today. I notice there has been a brief storm down there last hr.

[Cyclone Tracy]

EC thinks its going to be bubbling mid tomorrow around Hamilton and south of Auckland.

[NZstorm]

Tomorrow is looking good, instability is deeper and surface convergence is there, particularly south of Hamilton.

Today we had some unexpected subsidence. I could see it in the clouds and the observed midday sounding from NZWP had an inversion at 700mb.

[NZstorm]

Satellite shows a lot of cloud over the central North Island. I think that could be a player in today's convection as it will cut down the heating. Best heating will be north of Hamilton. The dp in Hamilton this morning is 12C so some moisture there.

[spwill]

That was my thinking, south of Hamilton looks cloudy today with showers to dampen instability.
Looking for heating with convergence today.

[jamie]

I like the looks of western Waikato between pirongia and port Waikato. Looks to be the spot today according to gfs

[spwill]

A few showers developing over Waikato but Hamilton showing only 14C, plenty of cloud down there.
Fine conditions here, 21C with a mod easterly to keep any convergnce away.

[cbm]

Sunny and would be about 20C in Hamilton central right now. A big shower over the airport just crashed the temp over 5C in an hour, down as low as 12.8C for a while.

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[jamie]

Today similar to yesterday. Crap!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

There were thunderstorms over the mid to lower NI today according to Dan on the telly

[NZstorm]

A fine stable day in Auckland.


Lightning tracker shows some activity occurred over the central NI today across to Hawkes Bay and a bit near Hamilton. But a bust day for the Waikato for sure.