UK Weather - Winter 2017/18

[Simon Culling]

A new month and a new season as we finally move into the northern hemisphere winter.

After a cold start to December with frost and sunshine on the first couple of days, it has become milder and rather cloudy since Sunday as high pressure remains to our south and south west. It will remain mild for the next few days, but the third named ( ) storm of the season will move across the north on Weds/Thurs and then drag down very cold air from the Arctic which will persist into next weekend. There will be snow showers about with the favoured areas at the moment looking to be the north and west and particularly NW England where quite a lot of snow could accumulate on the hills. Not looking like much for me in the south from the northerly, but some model runs suggest a low near to the SW by early next week with the winds going round to the east which is more promising for southern England. The alternative is a win for the milder air and a slow temperature rise during next week, so all to play for in the next week.

[Simon Culling]

The weather in NW Europe is in a state of flux at the moment with model prediction changing from run to run. Storm 'Caroline' is currently just to the NW of Scotland (965mb on the 06:00GMT chart) and moving NE and still deepening. It has some storm force winds on its west and south west flank and these will move over the north of Scotland today (Thurs 7th Dec) with potentially gusts to 90-100mph. As the cold front has swept south this morning, much colder air is now flooding into the UK and we will have a couple of days of sunshine and snow showers into the weekend with daytime max temps of 0-4*C, so rather cold in the wind.

Looking ahead, a fair bit of snow could accumulate in the NW of England and into the north Midlands (and of course, northern Scotland) on Friday, even to lower ground, but most other areas will only see a sprinkling. The fun will start on Sunday when a 'slider' low moves SE across the UK. There is plenty of doubt about its path, but at the moment snow is likely in the central swath of England and Wales, but this could extend to inland southern England later in the day. However, the forecast is changing all the time, so no certainty just yet. Unfortunately I will be travelling across these areas and not have much internet access to check on updates!

The CET for December was 6.5*C (+1.3*C) up to the 6th, but this will fall quickly in the next few days. The EWR was just 2mm up to the 5th, which is only 2% of the monthly average of 96mm.

[Orion]

Ship sheltering in Scapa Flow:

https://www.orcadian.co.uk/hamnavoe-hea ... ficulties/

[Simon Culling]

Thanks for the link, Orion. It was quite a windy day in the far north - but nothing they are not used too up there - they are a lot hardier than us in the south!

The snow duly arrived Sunday morning and brought the usual road chaos in its wake. I recorded 13cm level depth in Milton Keynes (see picture below), but places in Wales and the West Midlands had 20-30cm. The snow tapered off after lunch, but it was a hairy drive to the south coast in the afternoon on snow covered roads for the first 30 miles. Thankfully the snow had disappeared further south - the landscape went from white to green over about 2 miles. We have another system passing close to the SE of England this morning (Mon 11th Dec), but this is giving a wet mix of rain, sleet and some snow, so there will be a partial thaw in some areas. Not so in the north where the skies remained clear overnight - the mercury fell to -12.8*C this morning at the aptly named site at Chillingham Barns in Northumberland.

[Simon Culling]

Monday night into Tuesday morning was very cold over the snow covered areas of the UK - a central swath of much of Wales and the Midlands - and clear skies led to a rapid temperature fall. The lowest minimums I could find at Met Office sites were:

-13.0*C at RAF Shawbury (Shropshire)
-12.6*C at Shobdon (Worcs)
-11.3*C at Pershore (Worcs)
-10.1*C at Llysdinam (Powys, mid Wales)

An amateur site at St Harmon (also in Powys, mid Wales) also reported -12*C. There used to be a Met Office climate site at this location and it still holds a few monthly records for Wales.

After a cold sunny day on Tuesday (12th Dec) it has turned a lot milder today and we are looking at a few cool showery days up to the weekend, with some snow on higher ground. Another photo from Sunday:

[Simon Culling]

The flow has generally remained from a more northerly quadrant in recent days and it has been rather chilly. I was in Milton Keynes at the weekend and we had a sharp frost on Saturday morning followed by a mostly cloudy day with sleet showers - max temp just 3*C. Frost again this morning (Monday), but a lovely sunny day to drive back to the south coast, where it was also sunny when I arrived at lunchtime and 6*C. Some of the snow from last weekend was still om the ground in the Midlands, but the weather will gradually turn a little milder this week and rather cloudy - but there is again very little rain in the offing. Looking further ahead, the run up to Christmas looks rather mild (so no snow this year) and potentially getting rather stormy after the festive period. The models are showing a stronger jet stream by then and a shift south so it may get colder again.

The CET for December was 3.9*C (-1.0*C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 48mm up to the 16th, which is 50% of the monthly average with again a bias in these figures to the NW.

[Simon Culling]

It has turned milder in the UK in the last couple of days with mostly cloudy skies and misty horizons. Everything is rather damp and miserable especially when the stratus lowers to fog. The forecast for the next five days is not any more inspiring with the cloudy skies persisting and only small fluctuations in the temperature around 10*C. There are signs that after the Christmas break the weather will liven up with a much stronger jet across the Atlantic (spurred on by an arctic plunge across eastern USA) and this will bring cooler and much more changeable weather to the UK - although the detail at this range is rather limited.

[Simon Culling]

It is a mild start to Christmas Day for most of the UK with outbreaks of rain + drizzle and many areas at around 9-10*C at dawn. The rain will push away to the east during the evening and Boxing Day will be a lot cooler and brighter with many of us seeing the sun for the first time in nearly a week. Another low is set to move up the English Channel tomorrow and this will give plenty more rain to southern parts later in the day with sleet and snow on its northern edge. These events are always difficult to predict even at one days notice, but my old stamping ground of Milton Keynes could see 3-5cm by the morning of the 27th. Not likely to be anything more than a bit of sleet here on the south coast.

The colder weather will last until the end of the week, but milder and wetter again by the weekend.

The CET for December was 4.8*C (-0.1*C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 55mm also up to the 23rd, which is only 58% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Boxing Day dawned cool (3*C) and sunny here in Hythe, but it has clouded over now (early in the afternoon) with patchy light rain. Another low is approaching the SW and will move along the south coast today and overnight giving a lot of rain to the southern half of the UK - some models give up to 50-60mm for East Anglia and 20-40mm generally - and combined with a developing strong NW wind tonight will make for unpleasant conditions on the roads for the return to work on Wednesday morning. Additionally, as the low moves to the east, colder air will undercut and the rain will turn to snow over inland parts to give perhaps 10-20cm over east Wales and the English midlands. There is always a lot of uncertainty with these marginal events, and more as likely, elevation will be just as important as anything else.

[Simon Culling]

The weather followed the forecast very well on Tues/Weds as a deepening low (down to approx. 976mb) crossed southern England bringing a lot of rain and strong cold N-NW winds in its wake. The rain turned to snow over many inland parts due to a combination of evaporative cooling and colder air being drawn into the low as it deepened. However, the resulting snowfall was fairly limited in most places as much of the precipitation fell as rain before turning to snow and this resulted in a slushy 1-3cm for many. However, a heavier area of ppt gave 10-15cm to an east-west band across the Midlands which caused the usual road chaos. We do seem to be uniquely unable to cope with a little snow here in the UK. This BBC report gives a general flavour:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42490947?i ... ting-story

After a nice sunny (but cold) day today (Thurs 28th Dec) and frosty night to come, more rain will push in from the SW - but it could be proceeded by quite a bit of snow in the north.

[Richard]

Looked very wet snow alright

[Simon Culling]

My 1000th post - but it has taken 8 years!!!

Agreed Richard - much of the snow we get here in lowland UK is of this variety - it is only when we get a true Arctic airmass from the north or a so called 'beast from the east' with air coming all the way from Siberia that we see powdery snow. However, up on higher ground, say above 300m, powder snow would be more prevalent in winter with the slushy stuff more likely up there in Spring or late Autumn.

Another low passed over the UK yesterday (Fri 29th Dec) giving further snow in the north, but introducing much milder air to the south with temperatures today (Sat 30th) up to 13/14*C at lunchtime. The cold front was very active over southern England on Friday morning with thunder reported widely and some quite severe squalls in places, with an anemometer at a sailing club near Bournemouth reporting an 'unofficial' gust of 110mph. There is some evidence of a brief tornado in the New Forest so I will be off for an SI tomorrow morning.

CET for December was 5.0*C (+0.3*C) up to the 29th and the EWR was 92mm up to the 28th, which is 96% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

There was indeed a tornado in East Boldre which is in the New Forest, Hampshire. There were many reports of SLW damage on at least 3 different paths, but there was definitely a local spin-up on this one. At least 25 houses suffered varying degrees of roof damage and plenty of fence and shrub/tree damage. I would estimate T3 on the TORRO scale and F1 on the American with some hints of F2 damage. A couple of photos attached, the first being from the press.

It is still rather wet and windy here in the UK and we have had storm Dylan with Eleanor is due tonight. After this there are now signs of colder weather from Friday with the prospect of blocking to our north and north east. Not looking very cold in this direction at the moment, but this can change very quickly with the right synoptics.

[Orion]

Happy New Year, Simon.
Gosh, bit of a shock for the householders to lose parts of their tile roofing like that!

[Simon Culling]

Happy New Year to you Orion - and all other posters on NZ Weather Forum.

Storm Eleanor crossed southern Scotland overnight Tues/Weds as a deepening feature (to about 965mb) and brought very strong winds on its SW flank. The worst affected area was Ireland and particularly the west and northwest coast of Eire where there is evidence of a 'sting jet' having enhanced the winds. Coastal flooding seems to have been the worst problem for towns such as Galway. Highest gusts recorded were:

97mph at Knock Airport (Co Mayo)
90mph at Orlock Head (Co Down)
86mph at both Mace Head (Co Galway) + Newport Furnace (Co Mayo)
78mph at Claremorris (Co Mayo)
77mph at High Bradfield (South Yorkshire)

The 100mph gust referred to in many media reports was atop a mountain in Cumbria at 2800ft and is therefore not representative of where anyone lives.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42549441

EDIT: Final CET for December was 4.8*C (+0.1*C) and the EWR was 114mm which is 119% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

The weather turned drier and colder after the departure of storm Eleanor, with a high pressure becoming established for a while over the north of the UK. This gave plenty of sunshine over the weekend, but a cold and nagging NE wind over southern Britain which felt cold here in Hythe despite the sunshine and a max of 6*C on Sunday. It has been much colder in Scotland with clear skies and light winds allowing cold air to stagnate and the nights have seen the Glens getting down to around -10*C and then not getting above freezing through the day. It has turned cloudy today (Mon 8th Jan) over much of England and Wales and the dull and cold weather will persist until mid week before it becomes more mobile and a bit warmer. Typical January weather.

The CET for January was 4.5*C (+0.9*C) up to the 6th and the EWR was 28mm, also up to the 6th, which is 31% of the monthly average of 91mm.

[Simon Culling]

It did become a little 'warmer' in the second half of last week and into the weekend, but any benefit of higher temperatures was lost because a persistent low stratus cloud sheet and plenty of mist and fog. I was in Milton Keynes Weds-Fri and it was mostly foggy and drizzled on and off throughout with the temperature hovering between 5-7*C, so not particularly pleasant. It is still cloudy today (Sunday 14th Jan - and now back in Hythe) and just 6*C at midday. The coming week will definitely see more mobility in the weather, but it will generally be a little cooler with some snow further north - and windy at times as a number of deep lows head our way. Looking milder after this for the rest of the month.

CET for January was 4.6*C (+1.1*C) up to the 13th and the EWR was 32mm up to the 12th which is 35% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

There has been a fair amount of snow in the northern half of the UK, and not just on the hills. We had a strong WNW flow (right across the Atlantic from Canada) on Tues/Weds with frequent snow showers affecting Scotland, Ireland + more northern parts of England with 10-20cm of snow quite widely and over 30cm on the hills. The attached BBC news story gives a flavour. However, as this did not affect the south and especially London, it was not a major news event. Eskdalemuir (in the southern uplands) recorded a maximum snow depth of 39cm.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-42687868

Last night (Weds night into Thurs 17/18 Jan) a deepening depression ran east across northern England giving further heavy snow to the same areas, but wind and rain to us in the south - the mercury lifted to 11*C overnight here in Hythe in the warm sector.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42729662

[Simon Culling]

The colder weather that followed the deep low of Weds/Thurs has persisted, particularly in the north, with the lowest temperature of the winter so far being recorded over the Scottish snowfields this morning (Sunday 21st January) with the mercury falling to -13.5*C at Dalwhinnie. Not so cold here in the south, but a slight frost was experienced by most places except more south western areas. Here in Hythe we only saw a low of 3*C this morning and it is now raining steadily. Further inland and to the north and east, the rain has turned to wet snow and this will continue for a while, but much milder weather is pushing up from the SW where the thermometer is already showing 11*C. This mildness will reach all parts eventually today/tomorrow and we are looking at a mild and wet spell for much of the coming week.

[Simon Culling]

The last week has been changeable with the usual winter mix of weather and just a little on the mild side of normal. Some rain, but also drier and brighter days when outdoor activity is possible. There were a couple of active cold fonts midweek and a confirmed small tornado on one in west Wales on Thursday.

Looking forward much of the same to come during this week with mild weather at the start giving way to cooler weather from midweek. The coldies are still hanging their hat on an easterly during February, but I cannot see anything yet in the models.

The CET for January was 5.1*C (+1.4*C) up to the 26th and the EWR was 92mm up to the 25th which is 101% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

We have had a couple of quite mild days in the last week and Sunday 28th January was probably the best of these with sunshine at times and a high of 15.1*C at Monks Wood in Cambridgeshire. Here in Hythe we had some good sunny spells in the middle of the day and the max of 14*C felt very pleasant. It has been a little cooler since then and today (Weds 31st) will see the start of a general cool off with the winds going round more to a W or NW direction giving wintry showers to many. There is more than a hint in the models of something colder next week with perhaps an easterly developing - and these can be very cold thru to the end of March. Perhaps the 'coldies' were right all along!

CET for January was 5.4*C (+1.6*C) up to the 30th, so another warm start to a year. The EWR was 98mm up to the 29th, which is 108% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Its been a rather dull and miserable day today (Sat 3ed Feb) in Hythe with cold rain all day and the mercury struggling up to 6*C by afternoon. However, this is about as high as it will get for the next week or so as we draw colder air in from the continent starting tomorrow. The air is not particularly cold and with the SST's in the North Sea a couple of degrees above average, I am not expecting anything severe. That said, with this type of weather pattern - an initial NE feed and then a bit of a mish-mash of col's and rather stagnant air, the weather can be very difficult to predict and particularly the temperatures. It wlll be a bit of a test for the forecasters.

The final CET for January was 5.3*C (+1.5*C) and the EWR was 103mm, which is 113% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Today the new provider of weather forecasts to the BBC, MeteoGroup, has finally launched its products onto our TV screens with surprisingly little fanfare - and the welcome has not been universal. The change of supplier also now applies to the BBC website.

MeteoGroup were initially awarded the contract in Aug 2015 with a launch scheduled for spring 2017. However, for whatever reason (not well explained!!), they were not ready and the Met Office agreed to extend their contract (at a decent rate, no doubt!) until spring 2018. Now we have the launch of the new service today.

I cannot see much of a difference, although I must admit that I am not a big user of either TV or internet forecasts. Let's hope that new innovation will result in the provision of a better service and more importantly, the availability of more data. I am not holding my breath.

[Simon Culling]

Back to the weather. It has been much colder in the last few days as we have drawn air in from the north and east, but it has been generally dry for most. Small areas of snow have developed in the general NE airstream giving a few cm's to northern hills and parts of the east and south of England, but nothing of a troublesome nature. There have been some sharp frosts as well with the mercury falling to -10*C this morning (Weds 7th Feb) in northern England + Scotland.

Here in Hythe the last couple of days have seen plenty of sunshine and the odd snow flurry and daytime highs of 3-4*C with a nip of frost overnight. Looking further ahead, there will be a brief milder interlude later in the working week (with some rain), but colder weather (this time from the NW) will spread back across the UK Fri/Sat. The models are still keen on an true easterly next week as the northern hemisphere surface conditions respond to a forecasted strong SSW, but they have been doing this for quite a while.

The CET for February was 3.6*C (-0.8*C) up to the 5th and the EWR was 7mm, also up to the 5th, which is 11% of the monthly average of 65mm.

[Simon Culling]

There has been much talk in the last few weeks about the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) in the northern hemisphere and it now appears that it is underway. These SSW events can (and I stress can) reverse the general circulation at the surface and as they occur in winter, the effect for western Europe can be a significant cold spell. As explained in the link, this does not always occur and the effects can be modified by other factors. However, we might be looking at a rather cold spring here in the UK.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forec ... ur-weather

On the ground, it has been rather chilly in the last few days with some frost at night and a mix of rain and/or wintry showers. It is raining (and milder) today (Sat 10th Feb), but the winds will be back round to NW by tomorrow and it will feel much colder with wintry showers again. No real cold spell showing in the models at the moment.