UK Weather - Winter 2017/18

[Simon Culling]

It has remained rather cool and unsettled with rain or wintry showers over the UK. No snow for us on the south coast, but some good hail showers on Sunday afternoon from shallow Cb's that looked good in the sunshine. It is raining this morning (Tues 13th Feb) and at just 5*C, the brisk southerly feels rather cold. This rain will clear to the east by the afternoon leaving clearer and colder air with a few wintry showers and a frost tonight. After that, we are looking to a gradual warm up as the weather becomes dry and sunny after midweek with the mercury surpassing 10*C here in the south. The forecasters keep cryptically referring to the fact that winter is not over yet and it might turn a lot colder next week, but there is no agreement in the models and they have been showing an easterly at T+240 for much of the winter!

[Simon Culling]

The last few days (Thurs 15th to Sat 17th Feb) have been very pleasant here in the south with plenty of sunshine and daytime temperatures close to 10*C after a nip of frost overnight. This is due to an area of high pressure over the near continent and close to the south of the UK. This will generally persist, but milder air will introduce more cloud from this afternoon and it will give us a few cloudy and mild days, but there are increasing signs of an easterly developing later in the coming week with colder and colder air being advected westwards into the UK over time. Some significant snow is now suggested for the change of month (and season!!) the week after. We shall see.

The CET for February was 3.3*C (-0.4*C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 41mm up to the 15th which is 63% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

There was an earthquake recorded in the UK on Saturday afternoon which was quite significant for us. Whilst there were no reports of any serious damage or injuries, it was felt over much of Wales, the border region with England and down into most of the SW of England.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43097113

I remember the tremor in Feb 2008 (mentioned in the article) as it occurred at just before 1 am in the morning and I was in bed in Milton Keynes. There was a dull rumbling noise (a bit like weak thunder) and I could literally feel the bed move. I did not feel the recent tremor as I was on the south coast and too far away from the epicentre.

The computer models are becoming more and more keen on a lengthy cold spell for the UK starting Weds/Thurs and extending well into next week. It looks dry initially, but a lot will depend on the exact trajectory of the easterly as it can pick up lots of little disturbances from the mountains in central Europe and these will bring pockets of snow. Its a long time since we have seen a genuine easterly set-up in winter.

[Richard]

A short duration earthquake looking at that graft

[spwill]

Some really cold air moving into Europe over the coming days from the NE. I can remember a couple of cold easterly events in the time I lived in the UK, both were prolonged cold snowy events. Where I lived in NW London ( Mill Hill) we had snow on the ground for days.

[Richard]

Looking like its going effect the south of the UK more than up north too. Drag out ya woolly hat Simon

[spwill]

I've not been following the modelling but perhaps a snow storm there later next week as warmer moist air starts to push in from the southwest.

[Simon Culling]

Richard - yes the tremor was very short lived as they tend to be here in the UK - we are not a noted area for seismic activity.

There is a lot of chatter from the cold rampers at the moment, but it does look like we are in for quite a long and cold spell of weather from the end of this coming weekend and through next week. It is not exactly mild at the moment - here in Hythe today (Fri 23rd Feb) it has been sunny with a max of 6*C, but the easterly wind has picked up to about 15mph so it has begun to feel cool. There has been much hype from the numerous part time forecasters about meters of snow, but the reality is that, at the moment, the only definite is that it will be cold - max temps here in the south will be -1*C to +2*C thru much of next week. The snow element is still up for grabs, but it is true to say that there could well be plenty of showers off the North Sea as SST's there are about 1-2*C above average. However, it is possible for more organised areas of snow (on troughs) to move westward in the general flow, but predicting these at 5 days+ is ridiculous. Still all to play for.

Personally, with an old person to care for and travel needed, this is something I could well do without.

EDIT: CET for Feb was 4.0*C (+0.3*C) up to the 22nd and the EWR was 49mm up to the 21st, which is 75% of the monthly average.

[Richard]

Sounding like an interesting week coming up for you folks over there alright.

[NZstorm]

UK 850mb temps for 5 days time. Fairly exceptional looking temps. Certainly don't get anything like that in NZ.

[Chris W]

3 days of Met Office amber (be prepared) snow warnings for various parts of eastern England with powder snow, drifting and possible thundersnow such is the strength of expected convection and resultant sea-effect snow from the North Sea (-15C 850s passing over SSTs of 5-8C). My family are right in the firing line and I have made clear what is coming! This severe cold easterly setup (the 'beast from the east') was last seen in December 2010 when I was still in the UK, although this cold spell will likely not be as long or as severe as that one was.

The cause is a sudden stratospheric warming, which has reversed the zonal westerly winds and created very broad-scale blocking over Scandanavia, Siberia and Greenland. That usually means cold for the UK, but is rare.

[NZstorm]

500mb temps as low as -45C tomorrow.

Also a link showing the sea starting to freeze in the Bristol Channel.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-43199496

[Simon Culling]

Gentlemen, there has been a massive amount of hype concerning this current cold spell here in the UK. Yes, it is cold, but there have been many rail and flight cancellations when only a small part of the country has received a few cm's of snow. Most areas have no snow at all, and indeed no visible frost, as the air is quite dry.

The picture of the sea freezing at Weston-Super-Mare is interesting. This place is on the Somerset coast and the two nearest coastal stations (Chivenor, Devon + St Athan, S Wales, on the other side of the Bristol Channel) only fell to -2*C overnight Sunday into Monday with a 10-15kt wind blowing. The air was quite dry, but I think there must be a fresh water feed near this site to limit the salinity?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The picture of the sea freezing at Weston-Super-Mare is interesting. This place is on the Somerset coast and the two nearest coastal stations (Chivenor, Devon + St Athan, S Wales, on the other side of the Bristol Channel) only fell to -2*C overnight Sunday into Monday with a 10-15kt wind blowing. The air was quite dry, but I think there must be a fresh water feed near this site to limit the salinity?

Yes, but the media could have a field day on this saying that the sea is freezing in the English Channel, anything to enhance the prospect of Global warming or Climate change whatever.

[Chris W]

To balance the dovishness a little there have been many parts receiving snowfall and particularly in the east including as we speak. Of course there is some hype, however this is a significant cold spell. It is not 2010, however it is bitterly cold with convective snowfall persisting through the week.

[tgsnoopy]

Yes, but the media could have a field day on this saying that the sea is freezing in the English Channel, anything to enhance the prospect of Global warming or Climate change whatever.

Hmm, Global Warming, causing the English Channel to Freeze. Yeah right

[spwill]

Sub zero maximums for many parts of Europe today.

[Chris W]

Awful conditions for commuting in North East England today with streamers, blizzards and thunder snow. Family sending plenty of very white pictures on Whatsapp!

[NZstorm]

BBC Weather Forecast: 'NOWHERE IMMUNE'

Some new forecast language. Maybe Met Service could adopt it?

Looking like models have verified with the blizzard conditions in some eastern counties today.
A snowy warm front is in the prognosis for southern counties in a couple of days time.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, but the media could have a field day on this saying that the sea is freezing in the English Channel, anything to enhance the prospect of Global warming or Climate change whatever.

Hmm, Global Warming, causing the English Channel to Freeze. Yeah right

The lady on the British news item on TVOne news this evening said that the cold snap was due to warming over the north polar caps rendering the colder weather further south over Europe.
The freezing sea was mentioned also.

[Chris W]

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is a short term event, that is what has directly caused this event. The stratospheric polar vortex has slowed and contracted, forcing warmer air down into the troposphere which has then caused the tropospheric polar vortex to reverse its westerly winds to easterly, with strong polar blocking. This in turn has drawn Siberian air over to the mid-Atlantic and all of Europe. If the SSW is climate-related I don't know, but that is what is responsible. The BBC have a video explaining it on the weather section of their site.

A rare red Met Office warning has been issued for central Scotland including Edinburgh, where my sister lives. It will continue snowing there until at least the weekend. I will be checking on her this morning. Any suggestion of hype over this event is now a little misplaced.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

[NZstorm]

12Z Observed sounding here from Abermarle, north east England. 500mb temp -46C, surface temp -3C. There was quite a bit of east coast lightning which is not surprising.

[jamie]

I see there was a tornado with snow on the ground in the UK. Quite a bizarre site.

[Nev]

I see there was a tornado with snow on the ground in the UK. Quite a bizarre site.

Nice video here, although the Met Office say it was a 'funnel-cloud'…

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-ne ... rs-1275996

[NZstorm]

That will be a waterspout for sure. SST there about 10C.

I am always amused at the various media explanations to how tornadoes form

A rotating column of wind draws in cloud droplets, making a region of intense low pressure visible. They are formed in the same way as a tornado building around this localised area of intensely low pressure and are typically associated with the formation of cumulonimbus thunderclouds.