Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

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Richard
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Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Richard »

Possible storms today is worthy of a thread considering the severe threat for northern half of Canterbury and Marlborough, as well as Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay

From the Met Service

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 13 Dec 2017

Issued at: 8:39am Wednesday 13 Dec 2017

Temperatures aloft are expected to cool this afternoon and evening bringing instability to many central and southern areas.

This cooling combined with low level wind convergences should lead to daytime cloud buildups producing scattered showers and thunderstorms about Gisborne and Hawkes Bay during the afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by localised heavy rain and hail. There is a low risk a few of the thunderstorms could be severe over Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay producing localised downpours in excess of 25mm/hr and large hail. Rainfall rates of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, while large hail can cause damage to crops.

Further south, a freshening south to southeast flow and cooling aloft is expected to lead to thunderstorms embedded within broader areas of rain about parts of Buller, Marlborough and inland Canterbury during the afternoon and evening, with localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/hr and hail. Additionally there is a low risk a few of the thunderstorms could be severe in the hills and ranges of Canterbury and Marlborough producing localised downpours with rates of 25 to 35mm/hr.

As this southeasterly wind change pushes through Nelson and the lower North Island late in the day, there is a moderate risk of the change triggering thunderstorms about parts of Whanganui, Manawatu, Horowhenua, Wairarapa and Nelson from this evening with localised heavy rain and hail.

A broad low risk of thunderstorms covers remaining parts of central and southern New Zealand through much of the period, as indicated on the chart.
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Very heavy rain in timaru city this morning..
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Razor »

snowstormwatcher wrote: Wed 13/12/2017 09:39 Very heavy rain in timaru city this morning..
Send it up mate. 0.0mm in ChCh Botanic gardens yesterday, but some outer suburbs got several mm's
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Chris W »

Some pretty decent cloud build-ups in town this morning, although we are in the low risk area.
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Richard »

All build ups are east and south, nothing around the mountains which is unusual
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Today isn't actually a bad set up with an onshore NE aswel. Be interesting to see what happens later
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

snowstormwatcher wrote: Wed 13/12/2017 09:39 Very heavy rain in timaru city this morning..
That heavy rain missed us here, only 2.2mm till to noon today.
ChCh looks good with a keen ENE at the moment :smile:
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Richard »

Warming up nicely with a light SE wind, 20deg, clouds building all round
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Grey/Hoki looks as though they might be in for a storm or 2 ?
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Wed 13/12/2017 12:05
snowstormwatcher wrote: Wed 13/12/2017 09:39 Very heavy rain in timaru city this morning..
That heavy rain missed us here, only 2.2mm till to noon today.
ChCh looks good with a keen ENE at the moment :smile:
Yes very coastal only 5mm at home near Pleasant point..
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Re: Storms Central&Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Chris W »

Looking pretty dark over towards the hills, Chch about to get something heavy.
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Richard »

Heavy shower here but no thunder yet.
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Thunder081 »

Some towering cumulus near Levin
DSCF6518-r.jpg
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Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Richard »

Looking promising for Levin but i see they moving NE.

Been a couple of rumbles out to the east of here
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by dogmelon »

Well, A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for two storms eying up Gisbourne. Well done Metservice for drawing that one up correctly.

Does Paul Mallinson still come in these forums with his tidbits of really interesting info?
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

dogmelon wrote: Wed 13/12/2017 16:05

Does Paul Mallinson still come in these forums with his tidbits of really interesting info?
No.
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by dogmelon »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Wed 13/12/2017 16:38
dogmelon wrote: Wed 13/12/2017 16:05

Does Paul Mallinson still come in these forums with his tidbits of really interesting info?
No.
That's a shame. I enjoyed his comments.
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Willoughby »

^He retired I believe.

Looks like a couple of decent thunderstorm cells by Lake Waikaremoana and inland of Gisborne last couple of hours. Crosses mark cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Razor »

Willoughby wrote: Wed 13/12/2017 16:53 ^He retired I believe.

Looks like a couple of decent thunderstorm cells by Lake Waikaremoana and inland of Gisborne last couple of hours. Crosses mark cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.
waikeremoana.JPG
That would be this one, active warned right now.
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Willoughby »

Good CAPE and instability with this ACCESS-Regional (BoM) modeled sounding for just inland of Tolaga Bay where a third thunderstorm got up.
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Chris W »

Been hosing it down in New Brighton for about half an hour, but no thunder.

Very squally with some serious gusts.
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

All over bar the shouting by the look of it down here.
Even lit the fire tonight 8-o
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Thunder081 »

Reports of thunder in Upper Hutt at around 5:40pm
Wellington southerly front timelapse: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBl3hsuIg2Q
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by BeaconHill »

Just heard one rumble of thunder in the distance to the ESE of Wellington airport. Nzapstrike.net is showing some reasonable activity out in Cook Strait from the cells that formed earlier over Marlborough. Fingers crossed they get here as we desperately need any rain we can get.

Rain JUST starting to get heavy now \:D/
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Re: Storms Central & Eastern 13/12/2017

Unread post by Richard »

Had a report from a farmer near Greta Valley who recorded 34mm of rain from Wednesday's storm which mostly fall in about 10mins.
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