Convection Period 1st - 4th Jan

[tgsnoopy]

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... torm-watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

TW3Jan18.gif

Issued by MetService at 08:33 am Wednesday 03 January 2018
Valid until 09:00 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Taumarunui
Taupo
Hawkes Bay
Taranaki
Taihape
Wanganui
Manawatu

The combination of another warm humid day and light winds will allow scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop over many parts of New Zealand today (Wednesday).

About the central North Island, that's Taumarunui, southern parts of Taupo, Taihape, the western ranges of Hawkes Bay, and inland parts of Taranaki, Whanganui and Manawatu, some of these thunderstorms are expected to be severe this afternoon and evening, producing localised downpours of 25-40mmhr.

Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips.

Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

The thunderstorm activity is expected to die down late evening.

Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and monitor for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

For information on preparing for and keeping safe during a storm, see the Civil Defence Get Ready Get Thru website

Issued by: John Crouch

This watch will be updated by: 02:00 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018

[tgsnoopy]

Sorry for continually posting these, but I feel the next few days could be interesting and I often think I wish I'd saved some of the warnings etc. These could be useful for reference later.

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/thunderstorm-outlook

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 3 Jan 2018

Issued at: 8:31am Wednesday 3 Jan 2018

The combination of another warm humid day and light winds will allow daytime cloud buildups to produce scattered heavy showers and/or thunderstorms over many parts of New Zealand today.

In the North Island, the main risk of thunderstorms extends from western parts of Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula down to the Hutt Valley and inland Wairarapa, including the western ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. These thunderstorms are mainly expected during the afternoon and evening, but will probably start about the central high country and Tararua ranges late morning. Localised heavy rain will acompany the thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 10-25mm/hr.

About the central North Island however, that's Taumarunui and southern parts to Taupo to inland parts of Taranaki, Whanganui and Manawatu, and also the western ranges of Hawkes Bay, some of these thunderstorms are likely to be severe with localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr. Rainfall rates of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, and make driving conditions hazardous.

In the South Island, thunderstorms are expected about many inland areas this afternoon and evening (as indicated on the chart), and a few are likely to drift out towards coastal parts of Otago and Southland in the evening. Localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/hr (or possibly a little more) will accompany these thunderstorms.

A low risk of thunderstorms covers all remaining parts on New Zealand this afternoon and evening.

TO3Jan18a.gif

[Richard]

Has a completely different look to the clouds this morning, none of those short lived cb's of yesterday, also to get storm buildups over the Amuri plains it seems there needs to be cloud development on the eastern hills as well, which there is and was lacking yesterday.

Tomorrow outlook is looking even more promising.

Valid to: Midnight Thursday 4 Jan 2018

Issued at: 10:42am Wednesday 3 Jan 2018

Over the South Island, the combination of another warm humid day and light winds will lead to daytime cloud buildups producing scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over many inland areas on Thursday afternoon and evening. There is a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms about most inland areas from about Nelson lakes southwards, and a few of these will spread out towards coastal parts of Southland and Otago. These thunderstorms will be accompanied by localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/hr, and it is possible a few of the storms could be severe with localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr. Rainfall rates of this intensity can lead to surface or flash flooding, and make driving conditions hazardous.

Over the North Island, an frontal rainband associated with a deepening low in the north Tasman Sea will move southwards over the island during the day. Severe Weather Watches and Warnings for wind and rain are in force for this system. In general, thunderstorms are not expected with the front, however there is a low risk of a few thunderstorms on the back edge or behind the front over the northern part of the North Island from evening.

In between these two risk areas, scattered heavy showers are expected over the southern part of the North Island and the top of the South Island in the afternoon, and there is a low risk of a few of these developing into thunderstorms as indicated on the chart.

[mikestormchaser]

Was looking promising today but surface moisture totals backed away a lot so not so convinced now.
High instability around though so will see.
Tomorrow does look like the better day now

[spwill]

Cloud has burnt off here now, 26C, dp 19C, a couple Cbs over NW Auckland now. Converengce out to the east over Coromandel looks good.

[spike_01]

Thunder clouds building up to the East..

Never really seems to get to Ngaio..

[Richard]

Looking good spike.

I seem to be right under a developing convergence line at the moment, NE wind getting up quite breezy now too.

[RODALCO]

Some interesting clusters building up around Auckland. All photo's taken from Awaroa Road, Glendene. Time 14:05 hours.

2018-01-03_14-32-35.jpg

2018-01-03_14-33-08.jpg

2018-01-03_14-33-43.jpg

[Razor]

Had a good thunderstorm overhead at Hope Halfway Hut at 9pm last night after a very hot day

[tgsnoopy]

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... r-warnings

Severe Weather Warnings

Issued by MetService at 11:39am Wednesday 03-Jan-2018

Heavy rain and gale northeasterlies across northern and central New Zealand Thursday and Friday

A rapidly deepening low is forecast to approach New Zealand from the northwest today, then to lie the west of the North Island on Thursday while continuing to move southeastwards.

During Thursday, the low spreads a moist and strong northeast flow over northern and central New Zealand, delivering heavy rain and strong northeasterly winds to these areas.

The heaviest rain is expected in Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, Mount Taranaki, Marlborough, and Nelson. WARNINGS for heavy rain are now in force for these areas.

The strongest winds are expected across the upper North Island, from Taranaki to Bay of Plenty northwards, and a WARNING for severe gale northeasterlies is now in force for these areas. Note, the combination of strong winds and high tides could cause coastal inundation about eastern areas from Northland to Bay of Plenty including the Firth of Thames.

The low should cross central New Zealand on Friday bringing a period of gale westerlies to the North Island, and gale southeasterlies across the upper South Island. The low should then move away to the southeast of the country on Saturday.

People should keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case other areas are added to the WARNING.
Heavy Rain Warning
Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous.

Area: Northland
Valid: 12 hours from 9:00am to 9:00pm Thursday
Forecast: Rain is expected to become heavy for a time from Thursday morning until Thursday evening. Expect 80-120mm of rain to accumulate about the northern and eastern hills during this time, while 50-80mm of rain may accumulate elsewhere. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr possible, especially in the afternoon.

Area: Auckland including Great Barrier Island
Valid: 12 hours from 12:00pm Thursday to 12:00am Friday
Forecast: Rain is expected to become heavy for a time from midday to midnight Thursday. Expect 70-90mm of rain to accumulate during this time, especially about the Hibiscus Coast, and the Waitakere and Hunua Ranges. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr possible, especially in the evening.

Area: Coromandel Peninsula
Valid: 13 hours from 1:00pm Thursday to 2:00am Friday
Forecast: Rain is expected to become heavy for a time from early Thursday afternoon to overnight Thursday. Expect 100-150mm of rain to accumulate during this time, especially about the ranges. Peak intensities of 20 to 30mm/hr, especially from evening.

Area: Bay Of Plenty including Rotorua
Valid: 15 hours from 3:00pm Thursday to 6:00am Friday
Forecast: Rain is expected to become heavy for a time from Thursday afternoon to around dawn Friday. Expect 120-160mm of rain to accumulate about the ranges, especially the Kaimai and Mamaku ranges, while 70-100mm of rain may accumulate elsewhere. Peak intensities of 20 to 30mm/hr possible.

Area: Mount Taranaki
Valid: 9 hours from 6:00pm Thursday to 3:00am Friday
Forecast: Rain is expected to become heavy for a time from Thursday evening to early Friday morning. Expect 100-150mm of rain to accumulate during this time. Peak intensities of 20 to 30mm/hr.

Area: Nelson
Valid: 9 hours from 12:00am to 9:00am Friday
Forecast: Rain is expected to become heavy at times from around midnight Thursday until mid-morning Friday. Expect 120-160mm of rain to accumulate about the ranges west of Motueka, while 50-80mm of rain may accumulate elsewhere. Peak intensities of 25-40mm/hr, especially about the western ranges.

Area: Marlborough including the Kaikoura Coast
Valid: 9 hours from 12:00am to 9:00am Friday
Forecast: Rain is expected to become heavy at times from around midnight Thursday until mid-morning Friday. Expect 100-150mm of rain to accumulate about the Kaikoura Ranges, while 70-100mm may accumulate elsewhere, especially the Richmond Range. Peak intensities of 20 to 30mm/hr possible.
Strong Wind Warning
Strong wind gusts could damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures. Driving may be hazardous, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles.

Area: Northland
Valid: 5 hours from 4:00pm to 9:00pm Thursday
Forecast: During Thursday evening, northeasterlies are expected to become severe gusting 120 km/h in exposed places.

The combination of strong winds and high tides may also cause coastal inundation in eastern areas.

Area: Auckland including Great Barrier Island
Valid: 6 hours from 6:00pm Thursday to 12:00am Friday
Forecast: During Thursday evening, northeasterlies are expected to become severe gusting 120 km/h in exposed places.

The combination of strong winds and high tides may also cause coastal inundation in eastern areas including the Firth of Thames.

Area: Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Bay Of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo and Taranaki
Valid: 9 hours from 9:00pm Thursday to 6:00am Friday
Forecast: From Thursday evening until around dawn Friday, northeasterlies are expected to become severe gusting 120 km/h in exposed places.

The combination of strong winds and high tides may also cause coastal inundation in Coromandel and Bay of Plenty including the Firth of Thames.

This warning will be updated by: 9:00pm Wednesday 03-Jan-2018

[tgsnoopy]

As presented on Metservices website, kinda two watches

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... torm-watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

STW3Jan18a.gif

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

Issued by MetService at 01:38 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018
Valid until 09:00 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Taumarunui
Taupo
Hawkes Bay
Taranaki
Taihape
Wanganui
Manawatu
Tararua
Kapiti-Horowhenua
Wairarapa

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms have developed over the central and southern North Island today and will continue into this evening (Wednesday).

About the central and southern North Island, that's from Taumarunui and southern parts of Taupo down to near the Tararua Ranges, including the western ranges of Hawkes Bay, some of these thunderstorms are expected to be severe this afternoon and evening, producing localised downpours of 25-40mmhr.

Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips.

Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

The thunderstorm activity is expected to die down late evening.

Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and monitor for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

For information on preparing for and keeping safe during a storm, see the Civil Defence Get Ready Get Thru website

Issued by: John Crouch

This watch will be updated by: 09:00 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

Issued by MetService at 01:38 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018
Valid until 09:00 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Northland

Scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to affect western parts of Northland this afternoon and evening (Wednesday).

A few of these thunderstorms may be severe between Hokianga and Kaipara harbours (especially near the ranges) with rainfall rates of 25-50mm/hr.

Rainfall of this intensity can cause surface or flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips.

Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

The thunderstorm activity should die away by 9pm.

Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and monitor for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

For information on preparing for and keeping safe during a storm, see the Civil Defence Get Ready Get Thru website

Issued by: John Crouch

This watch will be updated by: 09:00 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018

[tgsnoopy]

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/thunderstorm-outlook

Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 3 Jan 2018

Issued at: 1:44pm Wednesday 3 Jan 2018

Updated at 1:40pm Wednesday to increase the thunderstorm risk about western Northland and also near the Tararua ranges to severe with localised downpours.

The combination of another warm humid day and light winds will allow daytime cloud buildups to produce scattered heavy showers and/or thunderstorms over many parts of New Zealand today.

In the North Island, the main risk of thunderstorms extends from western parts of Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula down to the Hutt Valley and inland Wairarapa, including the western ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Localised heavy rain will acompany the thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 10-25mm/hr.

About western Northland, and the central and southern North Island from Taumarunui and southern Taupo to near the Tararua ranges (including the western ranges of Hawkes Bay) however, some of these thunderstorms are likely to be severe with localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr. Rainfall rates of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, and make driving conditions hazardous.

In the South Island, thunderstorms are expected about many inland areas this afternoon and evening (as indicated on the chart), and a few are likely to drift out towards coastal parts of Otago and Southland in the evening. Localised heavy rain of 10-25mm/hr (or possibly a little more) will accompany these thunderstorms.

A low risk of thunderstorms covers all remaining parts on New Zealand this afternoon and evening.

TO3Jan18b.gif

[Thunder081]

I've been hearing alot of thunder since 3:55pm from this thunderstorm on the western foothills of the Tararua Ranges. This is looking E-NE from Levin.

DSCF6574-r.jpg

DSCF6566-r.jpg

DSCF6567-r.jpg

[GreggWard]

Been constant loud thunder and inter-cloud lightning for the last 45 mins.

thunderstormWarningImage.gif

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Issued by MetService at 04:20 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018.
Valid until 05:07 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018.

This warning affects people in the following local government areas:
PALMERSTON NORTH CITY, MANAWATU and RANGITIKEI.

At 04:07 pm, MetService weather radar detected severe thunderstorms near FEILDING, CHELTENHAM and POHANGINA.

These severe thunderstorms are moving towards the southsouthwest, and are expected to lie near PALMERSTON NORTH, FEILDING, ASHHURST, HALCOMBE and CHELTENHAM at 04:37 pm and near PALMERSTON NORTH, FEILDING, THE MANAWATU GORGE, ASHHURST, RONGOTEA and SANSON at 05:07 pm.

These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by very heavy rain.

Very heavy rain can cause surface and/or flash flooding about streams, gullies and urban areas, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in force for HAWKES BAY, TARANAKI, TAIHAPE, WANGANUI and MANAWATU.

The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management advises that as storms approach you should:
- Take shelter, preferably indoors away from windows;
- Avoid sheltering under trees, if outside;
- Move cars under cover or away from trees;
- Secure any loose objects around your property;
- Check that drains and gutters are clear;
- Be ready to slow down or stop, if driving.
During and after the storm, you should also:
- Beware of fallen trees and power lines;
- Avoid streams and drains as you may be swept away in flash flooding.

This warning is due to be updated or lifted by 05:07 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018.

Severe Thunderstorm Criteria
In New Zealand, MetService classifies a thunderstorm as severe if one or more of the following criteria are met:

Heavy rain (from thunderstorms):
Rainfall of 25 millimetres per hour, or more.
Large hail:
Hailstones 20 millimetres in diameter, or larger.
Strong wind gusts (from thunderstorms):
Gusts of 110 kilometres per hour / 60 knots or stronger.
Damaging tornadoes:
Fujita F1 (wind speeds greater than 116 kilometres per hour / 63 knots) or stronger.
Note: some tornadic systems such as funnel clouds, waterspouts and small land-based tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms that may not be classified as severe.

Funded by NZ Government

[GreggWard]

Not sure how to add the image of the warning.

[Richard]

Fantastic photos thunder081.

Gregg- what i do is i right click on the image, then click 'save image as' in pictures. Then go to the top of this page and click 'Post Reply', the bottom Post Reply doesnt have 'add attachments', so hit the add attachment and found the image in your folder and bingo, well hopefully.

[Richard]

In the end the only bit of action was up in the usual spot but more east of Molesworth this time. Mike you were spot on. Roll on tomorrow.

[GreggWard]

Gregg- what i do is i right click on the image, then click 'save image as' in pictures. Then go to the top of this page and click 'Post Reply', the bottom Post Reply doesnt have 'add attachments', so hit the add attachment and found the image in your folder and bingo, well hopefully.

Thank you very much for the help Richard.

[Thunder081]

These pics are looking at the currently warned thunderstorm from Levin.

DSCF6588-r.jpg

DSCF6592-r.jpg

[GreggWard]

Easing up here now, the thunder has become intermittent.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

thunderstormWarningImage (1).gif

Issued by MetService at 04:56 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018.
Valid until 05:45 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018.

This warning affects people in the following local government areas:
HOROWHENUA, TARARUA, PALMERSTON NORTH CITY, MANAWATU and RANGITIKEI.

At 04:45 pm, MetService weather radar detected severe thunderstorms near PALMERSTON NORTH, FEILDING, THE MANAWATU GORGE, ASHHURST, HALCOMBE, SANSON, PAHIATUA and MANGAMAIRE.

These severe thunderstorms are moving towards the southwest, and are expected to lie near PALMERSTON NORTH, FEILDING, TOKOMARU, THE MANAWATU GORGE, ASHHURST, RONGOTEA, SANSON, EKETAHUNA and MANGAMAIRE at 05:15 pm and near PALMERSTON NORTH, TOKOMARU, FEILDING, RONGOTEA, SANSON, EKETAHUNA, MT BRUCE and THE NORTHERN TARARUA RANGES at 05:45 pm.

These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by very heavy rain.

Very heavy rain can cause surface and/or flash flooding about streams, gullies and urban areas, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in force for HAWKES BAY, TARANAKI, TAIHAPE, WANGANUI and MANAWATU.

The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management advises that as storms approach you should:
- Take shelter, preferably indoors away from windows;
- Avoid sheltering under trees, if outside;
- Move cars under cover or away from trees;
- Secure any loose objects around your property;
- Check that drains and gutters are clear;
- Be ready to slow down or stop, if driving.
During and after the storm, you should also:
- Beware of fallen trees and power lines;
- Avoid streams and drains as you may be swept away in flash flooding.

This warning is due to be updated or lifted by 05:45 pm Wednesday 03 January 2018.

[Thunder081]

It's gotten closer now but I still doubt it will get Levin. Probably will weaken or something.

DSCF6597-rr.jpg

DSCF6598-RR.jpg

[Richard]

Looking towards Hanmer

[Paul Mallinson]

Torrential rain has moved from the north into Greytown last 10-15 minutes. Lightning as well.

[GraemeWi]

Getting some thunder from a cell with red in it just to the north-west of Swanson. Can't see any detail in the cloud for a photo with too much low level clutter

[spwill]

Getting some thunder from a cell with red in it just to the north-west of Swanson. Can't see any detail in the cloud for a photo with too much low level clutter

A photo of your Cb from Mt Roskill a little earlier in the evening