Deep Subtropical low 4th/5th January

[spwill]

The country will greatly benefit from the rain however the timing is not the best. If I was camping I would pack up and return after the event. I heard a lot of vege growers around Pukekohe have lost some of this seasons crop due to the dry weather, an undersize crop.

[Cyclone Tracy]

50 knot winds now recording on the Marine obs on the north west flank.

Interesting with latest 18z model update from Access R having a subtle change of the low position to be 150 km more north east towards the NI west coast early tomorrow morning. This model projection will change the wind impact on greater Auckland (especially the west coast) to be more severe and for a longer period. GFS has also moved the low slightly north east. I have found that Access R to be more precise within 48 hours leading into an event than the global models. Time will tell for this one of course

[David]

Metservice has reduced the wind speed in the Auckland marine warning. Was showing gust to 60 knots in the Hauraki Gulf yesterday, now reduced to 50 knots. Interesting considering latest modelling has a closer pass of the low center to Auckland than before.

[Twister sista]

Can anybody tell me what impact if any this event will have on te aroha please wind wise thank you just wondering if I need to secure things

[Orion]

Welcome, Twister sista.

It's always prudent for a householder to have things as safe and secure as possible

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Too right.
I'm preparing for floods here tomorrow

[jamie]

I just went and put everything away. I would expect Te Aroha to get decent winds if the low keeps tracking north. That means it will be more and more easterly hitting the Kaimais meaning strong wind at Te Aroha. But on its current path it might not be in the firing line for a major wind storm.

[Cyclone Tracy]

@twister sista welcome. Currently it looks like you'll get over 100 km/h gusts during the night and around sunrise tomorrow morning but these cut off lows are hard to predict accurately. It will be enough to send a trampoline into the neighbours.

Rain starting to set in, current rainfall rate here is 14 mm/hr. Atmospheric river is flowing hard now into the upper north. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Cyclone Tracy]

baro here now down to 1004 hPa, winds are picking up, rainfall rate moving between 25 and 35 mm/h. Cape Reinga now 998 hPa.

[David]

Nothing interesting here so far, raining 3-4 mm/hr now.
Kerikeri already >50mm, Whangarei 11mm, Akl Airport 1mm

[Cyclone Tracy]

Baro now 1002.7 and falling. 18mm so far, strong easterly here with the highest nearby gust at Milford sailing club of 66 km/h at 2.50pm. Cape Reinga now 995 hPa and 81 km/h.

I just took a close up 3pm sat snap and compared to various models. Centre of low is further north east than models predicted at this stage

[SnwAddct]

Very active rain radar at the moment..

rainRadarImage.jpg

[jamie]

Thanks for that analysis cyclone Tracy. Very interesting to see!

Power just flicked here but sadly I suspect that will have been a car crash. Certainly not windy enough for that carry on

[Twister sista]

Thanks heaps lol wind really picked up with small branches being thrown off some of our trees now. All potential flying missiles safely in garage now. Now we wait and see. Thanks for the welcome I love weather

[Tornado Tim]

Decent amount of rain starting to fall........
Got a "Storm Alert" on my watch, with barometer dropping quite a bit, round 1.4 hpa/hr atm.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Baro now 997.9 and falling, 35mm so far. A PWS on the west coast in Dargaville is now 992 hPa. Harbour bridge now gusting around 70 km/h.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Interesting 6 hours ahead now as the low deepens over simmering sea surface temps off the upper NI west coast.

[Richard]

I see now the MS are forecasting rainfall totals for Canterbury in the range of bugger all, 20-30mm

[melja]

I'd be happy with 30mm this time of year Richard

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[Richard]

30mm is getting near a useful amount, 20mm is a waste of time if ya dont get a backup rain

[tgsnoopy]

We've hit 70mm out of this thus far, useful amount and so far at safe rainfall rates. Wind is getting up there though. Surprised the Barometer hasn't dropped below 1000hPa yet.

[melja]

Looks like it's moving rapidly south on the sat loops now so might be more short lived than first thought



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[Cyclone Tracy]

Just hit 40mm, baro 994.9 hPa wind gusting around 60 km/h.

Classic elongated cyclonic outer rainbands above Auckland at the moment.

She's starting to mature

[Cyclone Tracy]

CG lightning strikes detected on the western side of the centre within the last 2 hours, Convective development continuing around the centre, with cloud tops around -50c. Starting to bomb I would say. It's going to be an aggressive North westerly attack into upper NI within 8 hours.

Baro 993.4 and falling.

[spwill]

The odd good gust coming through here, warm 21C, dewpoint 20C.