Ex-tropical storm & heavy rain, Jan 31st to Feb 3

[TonyT]

Subject says it all really. After everyone stops frothing at the mouth (possibly literally) about warm temperatures, the rain arrives and in big quantities.

[Richard]

But where will those big quantities fall?

[Dean.]

Looks very wet for Canterbury according to the EC model,GFS not so much at this stage

[Tornado Tim]

Jeepers...... ECMWF 12Z run!
Exceptionally strong cyclogenisis with the Jet!
Far too long a prognostic to be of much use, but flip that output.............
Notice the System retains warm cored status!

[Razor]

I would think outside the West Coast which is kinda used to it that severe wind is as big an issue?

[Chris W]

This is where we’ll see the anomalous SSTs really come into play, more moisture and energy available to this system and it also clashes with a cold front. Thursday looks very wet for many parts.

[NZstorm]

Looking like a chance of alpine snow with this system. Will depend on movement but looking like cold air undercuts the rain system over Otago about Thursday. Snow down to a 1000m?

[wembley]

Will Central Otago only get brief rain?

[NZstorm]

Will Central Otago only get brief rain?

There is a chance of significant rain for Central Otago, 100mm+.

[wembley]

I hope this system rockets over us real fast and doesn't linger

[Razor]

GFS seems consistent in little or no rain for Canterbury. Plenty for West Coast, Otago and Southland tho. Its shaping up to be a fascinating week of weather extremes

[wembley]

I hope it doesn't rain all day

[Razor]

GFS had changed its tune, that would be truly epic...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I hope it doesn't rain all day

It probably will

[Chris Raine]

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre tracking map looks interesting for 0600UTC on the 1st .Still a reasonable wind field on that date

[Tornado Tim]

ECMWF Still has the Low at whopping 959hpa in its forecast, although the system has veered south from the last 2 days.

[jamie]

That map reeks of a wild ride on the west coast

[spwill]

GFS pointing to tropical like downpours with the frontal activity over the north of the country Thursday into Friday morning. See how the model develops next day or two.

[NZstorm]

The system is looking like a water bomb for the lower half of the South Island in particular.

[Razor]

The system is looking like a water bomb for the lower half of the South Island in particular.

Especially on hard packed ground after the long hot fry...not to mention a supermoon/ king tides for coastal areas. Could be some real dramas this week

[Chris Raine]

Forecasting up to 380 mm of rain in 33 hours in South Westland and up to 280 mm north of Otira .Rainfall 30-40mm per hour or even more at times. The sea surge and king tide will be problematical for the midday high tide on Thursday .Pressure to be expected to be about 960 hpa as the low approaches the coast but will weaken Thursday arvo as a new low forms east of Canterbury .We are expecting flooding ,slips .closed roads and some wind damage

[shovelopikis]

With rain totals like that in that time frame I'm sure they would be looking at evacuations of some low areas if those numbers remained the same 24 hours out or have 300+ mm events been manageable with the flood upgrades?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Probably be b to b through Greymouth.
Hope the river walls in Greymouth will cope
hope no silly buggers will try to cross the bar

[Thunder081]

Is anyone going to chase this storm?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Is anyone going to chase this storm?

I'm not as I think it will be rather boring, no violent weather, ie, thunderstorms with it as it passes over Geraldine.