General February Weather

mattyj46 · Unread post by **mattyj46** » Mon 05/02/2018 21:00

Very handy 40mm here in Invercargill with 30mm of it falling since 4pm

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 05/02/2018 21:15

Good.
I hope it's not raining much down there next week as I will be in Stewart Island.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 05/02/2018 22:38

I still think there's a risk of a heavy shower/ thunderstorm around midnight John.
Surface moisture is there coming up around then with that cold upper air.
It will be very coastal though. Probably not even in rolleston

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 05/02/2018 22:42

....sorry because of the disappointing weather today, I think this is a bit of a gone-burger.
If cloud clears overnight and there is a bit of sun around, could be a chance tomorrow but ...immm

Looks like a moth is stuffing up the Rakaia radar at the moment

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 06/02/2018 06:25

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Mon 05/02/2018 22:42Looks like a moth is stuffing up the Rakaia radar at the moment

That classic radar interference line (often seen at sunrise and sunset) is most likely caused by someone else broadcasting a signal within the same frequency range that the radar uses.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 06/02/2018 08:34

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Mon 05/02/2018 22:38 I still think there's a risk of a heavy shower/ thunderstorm around midnight John.
Surface moisture is there coming up around then with that cold upper air.
It will be very coastal though. Probably not even in rolleston

There was a storm between 2 and 3 am along the Nth Otago/South Canterbury coast (south of Timaru).

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Tue 06/02/2018 10:38

Nice squal line seen from Tapere, Waikato. around midday yesterday. There was interclound lightning and some thunder, lasted about 30 minutes, bit of heave rain for about 15 minutes.

2018-02-06_10-28-03.jpg

2018-02-06_10-28-48.jpg

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 06/02/2018 11:44

Thanks for the report Radalco. Good capture.

Yesterday I was thinking that storm area would have some liner structure as it moved rapidly across the North Island.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 06/02/2018 12:31

Where is tapere? Or do you mean Taupiri?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 06/02/2018 13:30

I did an early afternoon chase yesterday as far south as Hampton Downs, rain and thunder from Merimeri but the main Tstorm passed to the west heading for the Hamilton area.
Some photos.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 06/02/2018 14:28

GFS showing a wet weekend coming up for parts of NI/upper SI.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 06/02/2018 15:08

That first photo looks good spwill.

A grey cool Tuesday here today, where has summer gone, it will back.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 06/02/2018 15:22

Yes, it looks likely there was something happening way out along the coast about 3am this morning but at that time I was staring at the back of my eye-lids. It was overcast here with a bit if drizzle overnight.
Trying to clear here all day with a stiff easterly blowing.
Nice pictures from you guys in Auckland.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 06/02/2018 18:22

NZstorm wrote: ↑Tue 06/02/2018 08:34
mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Mon 05/02/2018 22:38 I still think there's a risk of a heavy shower/ thunderstorm around midnight John.
Surface moisture is there coming up around then with that cold upper air.
It will be very coastal though. Probably not even in rolleston
There was a storm between 2 and 3 am along the Nth Otago/South Canterbury coast (south of Timaru).

I thought there was a small risk but never saw any flashes as was early hours.
Apparently it skirted up near birdlings flat aswel with thunder heard on the coast

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 06/02/2018 18:26

GFS shows >200mm for much of the upper NI in the next 7 days!

18021318_2_0518.gif

ECMWF shows plenty of rain but not quite as extreme:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018020512_192_15964_220.png

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 06/02/2018 20:06

Latest EC 00z run has joined the GFS deluge party for next Monday in Auckland and upper NI. Serious moisture feeding in from the from the tropics on the big models now early next week.

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Tue 06/02/2018 20:47

jamie wrote: ↑Tue 06/02/2018 12:31 Where is tapere? Or do you mean Taupiri?

Taupiri, Orini Road Waikato. (couldn't find my reading glasses)

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 07/02/2018 11:45

All the major models still locked onto to 100mm to 250mm falls across the upper NI between Friday and Tuesday with a decent NE flow. Cyclone near Fiji now becoming quite likely into the weekend viewtopic.php?f=9&p=173196#p173196

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 07/02/2018 13:36

A strong signal in the GFS for flooding rains over the upper North Island.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 08/02/2018 07:30

A lot of ingredients are there for very heavy rain over the north next few days, precip water values upto 60mm (unusually high moisture for these lattitudes), strong onshore flow, 300mb divergence and some instability. So somehwere will get a drenching, upper Northland looks the most favoured spot for a deluge. Bay of Plenty and Nelson could also catch rain capable of producing flooding.

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 08/02/2018 20:17

Average temperature here for the first week of Feb is 2.5C below January's average. Been much more pleasant.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 08/02/2018 22:18

The subtropical troughs seem to be liking NZ at the moment, humidity really cranking up this weekend, dewpoints of 22C for northern NZ
I think if the Cyclone ends up NW of NZ next week it probably will head our way

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 08/02/2018 23:41

I will keep my options open for a chase, providing it eventuates to something.

treetopkk · Unread post by **treetopkk** » Fri 09/02/2018 07:47

I see metservice has a heavy rain outlook for BOP yet the 3 day fourcast shows most of the rain moving through west Waikato ?

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 09/02/2018 12:59

SnwAddct wrote: ↑Fri 09/02/2018 12:41 Interesting (but not surprising being this far out) the drastic change in path for the potential cyclone in a week or so time.

Latest run has it going to Australia, as far down as Sydney.

I see the sea surface temperatures in the Tasman have taken a dive in response no doubt to last weeks storm churning everything up ( detail with thanks to Tony on the Blue Skies FB) Natures self regulator in action

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