9-14 Feb Subtropical northerly flow, embedded troughs

[Cyclone Tracy]

Just putting in a thread for the warm moist north to north easterly flow over the coming days. Should affect large parts of the north island and parts of the upper / west coast of the South Island but this could change. The source off the moisture is originating from a tropical disturbance south of Fiji which is feeding frontal troughs that will move over both islands.

I've had 12mm overnight to kick things off.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Some significant downgrades and upgrades occurring across the global models on an each run basis. The German high res model Icon just projected a 200 to 300mm soaking convergence zone for late in the weekend from upper to central NI.

[jamie]

Haha yea right!

[David]

GFS has certainly dropped it's rain accumulation estimates. Now showing around 70mm for Auckland next 4 days.

[Cyclone Tracy]

21.7c and 21.1c DP. water temp 23c. Nice moisture advection this morning. Steady rain here now and up to 35mm since it began yesterday. Just clocked rainfall rate of 47mm/h a short while ago.

EC and MS now getting on board with a soaking convergence zone tomorrow night from upper to central north island.

[David]

Soaking heavy rain here at the moment.

[tunster]

Just putting in a thread for the warm moist north to north easterly flow over the coming days. Should affect large parts of the north island and parts of the upper / west coast of the South Island but this could change. The source off the moisture is originating from a tropical disturbance south of Fiji which is feeding frontal troughs that will move over both islands.

I've had 12mm overnight to kick things off.

This might seem pedantic...
Terminology should be used to inform and not obfuscate. Otherwise it can end up resembling business jargon or can make things seem more intimidating than they should be.
Since a front is already a trough (though not all troughs are fronts), a "frontal trough" suggests "a trough with frontal characteristics" - or in other words: a front. We don't need to elongate it when the term "front" suffices.

On the weather front, tomorrow should see widespread 22C-23C dewpoints over Northland and Auckland. It will be interesting if anywhere reaches 24C. 24C is the highest dewpoint I've seen in NZ, but that's from memory not the record books. I wonder what the record high dewpoint is for NZ? (excluding Raoul Island).

[David]

EC and MS now getting on board with a soaking convergence zone tomorrow night from upper to central north island.

Latest EC rain accumulation next several days, for reference:

[NZstorm]

Current dewpoint 22C at the airport.

I went for a run this morning and the local parks are a bog. Already 110mm this month on top of 140mm last month.

[David]

Weather station at Mangawhai, Northland, is showing about 26mm in the last hour.

[Cyclone Tracy]

21mm this morning making it 41mm so far. Next round looks to be building from the north.

[spwill]

The BSCH GFS model is showing a dewpoint up to 24C for parts of Waikato and Northland on Monday, the highest modelled dewpoint I have seen for NZ.

The Thunderstorm chances for Monday/Tuesday upper North Island are possibly worth a mention, keeping an eye on those two days for thunder.

[Cyclone Tracy]

22.7 and 22.2c DP, cicadas going nuts an hour ago and a warm moisture rich northerly flow. Feels like its going to get quite wet today.

[jamie]

The rainfall warnings for eastern Waikato are huge! Don’t think I ever recall seeing up to 160mm for eastern Waikato. Then 160-200 on the Kaimais.

[NZstorm]

I see the airport has a dewpoint of 23C with mist.

[David]

That rain arrived really suddenly. Torrential.

[jamie]

Dew point of 22.7 right now. My record is 24.2 which by the looks could be under threat in the next couple days.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Rainfall rate currently between 50 to 80 mm/hr here.

Edit: Latest EC ensemble for TC Gita becoming interesting for an NZ impact now viewtopic.php?f=9&t=5733&p=173258#p173258

[David]

15mm here in the last hour.

[NZstorm]

My gauge showing 20mm in the last hr.

[tgsnoopy]

I'm getting a bit nervous about the next 48 hours. Hoping like crazy rainfall rates stay below 25mm/hr here. Council has tried to reduce our problems, but the pipes below us simply are not large enough to cope. Sandbags in place yet again.

[spwill]

It will interesting to see where the dewpoint can go next couple of days, I think any brighter weather will tend to bring it up. A general dp around 21-22C for Auckland this morning with plenty of rain.

[jamie]

Very heavy rain here, sitting nicely at 60-90mm/hr

[Cyclone Tracy]

38mm for the day so far, 82mm for the thread.

[jamie]

It has brightened up here and no DP is 23.3