Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-21st

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 21/02/2018 06:35

The irony is strong on this Facebook page...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Wed 21/02/2018 06:36

John ud be rowing a boat soon wouldn't you?or having fun riding a jet ski down your street?
Looks like non stop heavy rain from Ashburton south all night!

snowykiwi · Unread post by **snowykiwi** » Wed 21/02/2018 06:51

Rain getting heavier again in Rakaia as it eased off during the wee hours of this morning. Just the usual ponding of water out the front, certainly not to the extent of the surface flooding we had in July last year.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Wed 21/02/2018 07:09

I've recorded 57mm so far. Bit chilly for the freedom campers on the Crown Range this morning...

Crown Range 6.48am.jpg

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 21/02/2018 08:18

03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 06:35 The irony is strong on this Facebook page...

What else do you expect from a bunch of amateurs lol Leave it up to the professionals next time boys

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Wed 21/02/2018 08:22

03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 06:35 The irony is strong on this Facebook page...

Classic....I wonder where they get their stats from for the most reliable model. I just ran the NOAA reports at 500 hPa anomaly correlation for the last 22 years and the last month over the southern hemisphere. Even the Americans report they are coming 3rd

1.EC
2.UK Met
3.GFS
4.CMC
5.France

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 21/02/2018 08:34

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 08:22
03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 06:35 The irony is strong on this Facebook page...
Classic....I wonder where they get their stats from for the most reliable model. I just ran the NOAA reports at 500 hPa anomaly correlation for the last 22 years and the last month over the southern hemisphere. Even the Americans report they are coming 3rd

1.EC
2.UK Met
3.GFS
4.CMC
5.France

They don’t even know those kind of reports existed lol, all the professionals do of course...

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 21/02/2018 08:54

Interesting also that the 59mm of rain reported by the CCC for this event in Chch up to 2am (see their press release this morning) was close the values the EC model has been spitting out for Chch for three or four days now (varied from about 53 to 62 from memory).

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Wed 21/02/2018 08:58

Much more In a pocket north of the city with 120mm in Rangiora

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Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 21/02/2018 09:02

Pouring down again from a developing tough line over areas north of Amberley

Chris W · Unread post by **Chris W** » Wed 21/02/2018 09:04

Chch was under a rain watch for 2 days while being modelled for 50mm of rain, then it changed late (yesterday morning) as these things do. Canterbury Weather Watch need to pull their heads in and let Metservice get on with their job during such an intense time as monitoring and forecasting on a storm. Calling and demanding a warning? Where is their accountability?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 21/02/2018 09:08

melja wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 08:58 Much more In a pocket north of the city with 120mm in Rangiora

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Yes, and this has happened with every major rainfall event this summer. Its an interesting phenomenon, it seems to be a zone which extends from the coast through Rangiora inland to Oxford. Its not just a 10-20% increase, but as in this case its 50-100% more rain than in the city. I got 106mm in Amberley, I know some gauges in the area were 120mm+, but then we get the uplift from the coastal hills, which the Rangiora area shouldnt see.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 21/02/2018 09:20

Bradley wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 08:18 [

What else do you expect from a bunch of amateurs lol Leave it up to the professionals next time boys

I seem to have got myself banned for having the absolute gall to point out that they were being alarmist appeared to be hypocrites lol. A highly 'sanitised' comments list on their page this morning, immaturity reigns supreme.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Wed 21/02/2018 09:30

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 09:20
Bradley wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 08:18 [

What else do you expect from a bunch of amateurs lol Leave it up to the professionals next time boys
I seem to have got myself banned for having the absolute gall to point out that they were being alarmist appeared to be hypocrites lol. A highly 'sanitised' comments list on their page this morning, immaturity reigns supreme.

Oh I've been banned a few times and I wasn't even rude haha, just trying to clarify some model data inconsistencies they were giving out - seems to be highly precious but it's so good that they care so much about the residents of Christchurch ringing up yesterday and shrieking down the phone to Metservice when it was always touch and go if Christchurch would meet their warning criteria, I really do wonder if they look at the most aggressive model run from the model that is giving the highest rainfall forecast then just run with that one and base all their ideas around it...not really the best way to conduct a weather forecasting page I wouldn't have thought

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 21/02/2018 09:30

TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 09:08
melja wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 08:58 Much more In a pocket north of the city with 120mm in Rangiora

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Yes, and this has happened with every major rainfall event this summer. Its an interesting phenomenon, it seems to be a zone which extends from the coast through Rangiora inland to Oxford. Its not just a 10-20% increase, but as in this case its 50-100% more rain than in the city. I got 106mm in Amberley, I know some gauges in the area were 120mm+, but then we get the uplift from the coastal hills, which the Rangiora area shouldnt see.

That uplift happens around here as well, some farming friends 2 kms east under the hills by the Hurunui pub can see 30-50% more rain than here during moist E -SE rains but similar or less from drier S-SW or NW spillover, amazing the difference in a short distant.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 21/02/2018 09:35

Bradley wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 09:30

Oh I've been banned a few times and I wasn't even rude haha, just trying to clarify some model data inconsistencies they were giving out - seems to be highly precious but it's so good that they care so much about the residents of Christchurch ringing up yesterday and shrieking down the phone to Metservice when it was always touch and go if Christchurch would meet their warning criteria, I really do wonder if they look at the most aggressive model run from the model that is giving the highest rainfall forecast then just run with that one and base all their ideas around it...not really the best way to conduct a weather forecasting page I wouldn't have thought

Thee old click bait, feeding off people love of drama

midgrove · Unread post by **midgrove** » Wed 21/02/2018 09:58

I challenged Canterbury weather updates over their headline "severe tropical cyclone expected to make landfall in New Zealand" They came back saying their headline was valid. They claim to be a better provider of weather warnings than MetService - this is getting into dangerous territory and could lead to loss of life if people no longer trust official warnings. Weather watch claimed this storm was going to set records for retaining Tropical Cyclone status as far as 40 deg south based on the model they use

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Wed 21/02/2018 10:00

In a video they claimed category 1 even 2 on land fall, I think they all struggle for air so to speak.

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TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 21/02/2018 10:05

midgrove wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 09:58 I challenged Canterbury weather updates over their headline "severe tropical cyclone expected to make landfall in New Zealand" They came back saying their headline was valid. They claim to be a better provider of weather warnings than MetService - this is getting into dangerous territory and could lead to loss of life if people no longer trust official warnings. Weather watch claimed this storm was going to set records for retaining Tropical Cyclone status as far as 40 deg south based on the model they use

15 or 20 years ago I was threatened with legal action by Met Service for daring to use the word "warning" in material I sent out to clients. I even got a "visit" from someone to make sure I understood their position. They developed a "voluntary code of practice" which specified how their official warnings could be distributed and which banned anyone else using the term 'warning' on forecast products. I am continually surprised at what some people get away with these days without MetService or the MOT taking a harder line. Do I feel victimised? Possibly. Did I blaze a trail for those who have come along since? Nah.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 21/02/2018 11:10

Not like they or anyone else has a trade mark on the term ' warning', thats crazy

Suns out here, blue sky and its still raining

midgrove · Unread post by **midgrove** » Wed 21/02/2018 12:39

melja wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 10:00 In a video they claimed category 1 even 2 on land fall, I think they all struggle for air so to speak.

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Severe tropical cyclone is officially cat 3 or higher. If people are going to use these terms, they should learn what they mean

wembley · Unread post by **wembley** » Wed 21/02/2018 13:12

How much did those two cyclones cool the Tasman Sea?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 21/02/2018 13:21

wembley wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 13:12 How much did those two cyclones cool the Tasman Sea?

Going to have to wait at least a week before satellites ingest data and average it out. Clear skies are needed as well for good quality data.

The last two frames here show the difference in SST anoms and significant cooling as Gita travelled west from Tonga to New Caledonia.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... /anim.html

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 21/02/2018 17:46

We had 150.1mm all up for this event with the rain finally easing away from about 2pm here.
Waihi river up and the south end of Speechlys Bridge was washed away. There is a photo of it on RNZ Website.
Apart from that nothing much except for a bit of flooding. The wind wasn't much here either just the usual southerly winds associated with this passing low pressure system.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 21/02/2018 18:28

03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Wed 21/02/2018 06:35 The irony is strong on this Facebook page... [

The pattern this year has been bringing tropical systems NZs way so I think the early call for Gita to possibly affect NZ was fair.

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