Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-21st

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Mon 05/02/2018 12:49

Here's the next one 97P, due here mid Feb, via Fiji and Tonga by latest runs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

I guess someone will start a new thread for this?

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 05/02/2018 13:10

Blowy wrote: ↑Mon 05/02/2018 12:49 Here's the next one 97P, due here mid Feb, via Fiji and Tonga by latest runs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

I guess someone will start a new thread for this?

I have one already on this topic if you want to post there until it looks more certain for NZ. viewtopic.php?f=9&p=173152#p173152

Long term Amercian models are certainly getting excited for a NZ impact

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 08/02/2018 07:37

Something to watch. GFS suggesting a cyclone may affect us in ~10 days. Still a long way out, so bound to change.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 08/02/2018 08:04

GFS has been consistently displaying a cyclone impacting the north island in some manner for the past few days though. So while it may change it’s been pretty firm on something moving south out of the tropics for a while now.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Thu 08/02/2018 12:52

The media are going big and very early on the soon to be named cyclone Gita hitting NZ. Very brave headlines / articles and predictions this early

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 08/02/2018 13:19

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Thu 08/02/2018 12:52 The media are going big and very early on the soon to be named cyclone Gita hitting NZ. Very brave headlines / articles and predictions this early

And the following run of the GFS has no cyclone near NZ at all

petem8nz · Unread post by **petem8nz** » Thu 08/02/2018 13:22

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Thu 08/02/2018 12:52 The media are going big and very early on the soon to be named cyclone Gita hitting NZ. Very brave headlines / articles and predictions this early

Niwa tweets, newshub follows +100% drama

ScottyD · Unread post by **ScottyD** » Thu 08/02/2018 14:32

After the Herald headline, stuff published this
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/101261 ... r-services

petem8nz · Unread post by **petem8nz** » Thu 08/02/2018 16:21

scottiedavies wrote: ↑Thu 08/02/2018 14:32 After the Herald headline, stuff published this
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/101261 ... r-services

I was just coming along to post that

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 08/02/2018 20:33

If the cyclone does affect NZ it would be more interesting if it passed to the west of Auckland. A western passage would put us in the warm air advection and the chance of some interesting weather.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Thu 08/02/2018 21:02

And a western passage gives us down here a better chance of receiving some needed rain.

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Thu 08/02/2018 21:07

Both GFS and ECMWF now show the cyclone firmly penned up near New Caledonia by a high over NZ. Interesting what will happen if it's prevented from going poleward. I guess with all that warm sea and minimal land a cyclone could persist up there for weeks

Thunder081 · Unread post by **Thunder081** » Fri 09/02/2018 10:26

Ok so was it the niwa tweet or WeatherWatch pulling another cyclone winston that set off the media? WW has been known to think it worth mentioning it if its showing in the models 7 + days out and because if it passes close by there will be big waves but they shouldn't be doing this.

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Fri 09/02/2018 12:41

Interesting (but not surprising being this far out) the drastic change in path for the potential cyclone in a week or so time.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Mon 12/02/2018 11:00

All the models have been pretty consistent the last few days with ex TC Gita making landfall around the New Plymouth region this Sunday with a central core as low as 975hpa, this could be end up being a disaster for a number of different population centres...

18021906_1112.gif

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 12/02/2018 11:13

Lets start putting Gita speculation for NZ in this thread, but for now keep discussion of its impacts on the islands and sub-tropics in the Tropical Cyclone thread.

I have moved relevant posts from the general February thread in here.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 12/02/2018 11:14

Having a few degrees knocked off the Tasman SST by the last ex-tropical storm may well reduce some of its impact.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 12/02/2018 11:34

Richard wrote: ↑Mon 12/02/2018 11:14 Having a few degrees knocked off the Tasman SST by the last ex-tropical storm may well reduce some of its impact.

Yes, from severe to moderately bad.

Its still warmer than usual in the Tasman, so that will still be a factor.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Mon 12/02/2018 12:14

Latest EC ensemble 1102 12Z - EC control run and ensemble average has moved apart again on the NZ impact zone. Still plenty of uncertainty on the timing of the poleward left turn. If Gita slows and delays 12 to 24 hours before New Caledonia, there could be a polar jet interaction in the Tasman as NZstorm pointed out last night on the EC 1102 00Z run... this would be a nasty scenario for NZ.

midgrove · Unread post by **midgrove** » Mon 12/02/2018 16:36

Canterbury weather updates has headline on their face book page "Severe tropical cyclone likely to make landfall on Sunday in the North Island" According to Metservice there is no evidence that a tropical cyclone has ever hit New Zealand in recorded history - Some ex tropical cyclones have intensified and developed into major storms as mid latitude lows but I guess scaremongering makes for more sensational click bait than facts

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 12/02/2018 21:01

Here's the latest spaghetti member plot of TC Gita from ECMWF's Ensemble Prediction System

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Tue 13/02/2018 07:59

09P_gefs_12z.png

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 13/02/2018 08:02

The latest GFS has moved it north to cross Auckland now. EC has a Taranaki landfall. Fun to watch the tracks keep shifting

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 14/02/2018 07:03

The heavy rain risk with ex TC is the warm front (tropical air being lifted over cooler mid lattitude air). Current modelling shows the warm front quite weak as it crosses Auckland Sunday or Monday. So fingers crossed we may not have to put up with too much precip here. We are close to 200mm for Feb now and don't need more rain.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 14/02/2018 10:15

So it would be ideal if it crosses middle of the country that way we can get some needed rain

NZ Weather Forum

Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-21st

Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-21st

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 19th-22nd

Re: General February Weather

Re: General February Weather

Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-20th

Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-20th

Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-20th

Re: 9-14 Feb Subtropical northerly flow, embedded troughs

Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-20th

Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-20th

Re: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita impacts NZ Feb 18th-20th