Severe TC GITA

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tropical Disturbance (07F Fiji Met) (97P GEFS ensemble) is currently around 1001 hPa and moving into a favourable intensification environment over the next 48 hours. Currently all models believe it is highly likely to be a cyclone by Friday evening. If it does become a cyclone, she will be named Gita.

Models across the board are fairly aligned to @120 hours with regards to the location of the potential TC. As expected, beyond 120 hours it's quite variable. NZ impact is still uncertain but the EC 12Z run today placed potential TC Gita affecting the upper North Island @ 240 hours early Feb 17th.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tropical depression (97P, 07F) currently just north of Fiji with sustained winds of 25 knots. Currently struggling with wind shear so intensification is slow. Centre is around 999 hPa, SST 29c to 30c. Cyclone strength still likely by late Friday.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Americans have upgraded the invest to a tropical storm at 40 knots and 990 hPa. Fiji Met Service would be getting close to pulling the trigger on announcing Gita as born.

[Razor]

Named now, and GFS has a West Coast rendezvous next weekend. Much water under the system til then tho

[Cyclone Tracy]

Gita currently around 981 hPa, with an irregular cloud dense overcast (CDO) and sustained wind around 45 knots. Fiji met service now have her as a Cat 2. Conditions very favourable in the next 24 hours to strengthen to a Cat 3 before a plateauing, then possible rapid intensification on Tuesday into Wednesday towards a category 4 system as very favourable conditions look likely around 23s, 176E.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The go to tool for cyclone tracking is now in play for TC Gita and is starting to show its cards on the NZ impact. This latest run 0902 12z for the EC ensemble would have got the attention of the MS and NIWA in the last hour Average of the 51 members (black line) having a direct hit on the Upper North Island. Confidence is still low past 126 hours IMO but it's a significant ensemble run in terms of MetService tracking it past 25 degrees south.

[David]

GFS track maps. Looks like it will cross the North Island somewhere...

[NZstorm]

Norfolk Island should be concerned about the potential of this cyclone as the Island is at a lattitude were hurricane force conditions could occur.

[David]

Norfolk Island should be concerned about the potential of this cyclone as the Island is at a lattitude were hurricane force conditions could occur.

Indeed. Latest GFS has Norfolk Island in the firing line, with mean wind speeds getting just above 100 km/h there on Friday.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Gita now sustained wind around 75 knots, deep convection developing around the LLCC. Over the next 72 hours, she is heading towards very favourable wind shear and SST of between 28 to 29c. Gita is already classified a severe TC cat 3 by Fiji met service. Becoming more likely that she will be a strong cat 4 by Wednesday. Sub Tropical ridge now is taking over the steering which is sending her west.

The Hadley cell to the east of NZ is a long way south and is part of a developing cyclone conveyor belt for the next fortnight. Keeping an eye on tropical depression TD08F near Fiji.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Latest EC ensemble 1002 12z - More individual model alignment past 168 hours on a strong extratropical cyclonic impact on the North Island. Main EC model (blue) and average (black) becoming very close on the NZ impact zone. Interestingly more red tracks appearing indicating below 980 hPa.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Gita has now dropped 12 hPa in the last 12 hours on the ADT method to around 965 hPa. Sustained winds now over 80 knots. Cyclone centre cloud tops has dropped to -62c, indicating the commencement of an eye formation.

IMO, on current track and continued intensification, Tonga seems to be in a world of trouble. Wind gusts in the Tongan region by tomorrow night will be over of 200 km/h, peaking at 250 km/h. If she S wobbles at the wrong time on passing, it will be a devastating cyclonic hit.

[David]

EC showing Gita keeping a fair bit of strength by the time it gets down here. Wind gust map below.

[Orion]

Link to news from Tonga:

http://matangitonga.to/2018/02/11/tc-gi ... reat-tonga

[NZstorm]

Latest EC location of GITA in 10 days time.

A polar jet stream aids development in the Tasman.

[ScottyD]

Link to news from Tonga:

http://matangitonga.to/2018/02/11/tc-gi ... reat-tonga

Barbara Dreaver on One News saying that many buildings hadn't been boarded up due to it being a Sunday and no work gets done on Sunday. It's not that they didn't open shops. A shop opened up late on Sunday to sell emergency supplies, however the police arrived and ordered them to close as they were breaking Sunday trading laws.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Central pressure now in the 950's hPa and dropping, Fiji met service projecting cat 5 on approach to Tonga. Now has a embedded eye within the CDO. She's starting to mature...

[jamie]

Tonga won’t stand a chance against this. I’ve been to Tonga and it was a real eye opener for what their buildings are like. I didn’t realise just how poor the country was until I was there.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The latest HWRF (1102 12z ) high res has Tonga within the eye wall later tonight.

[Razor]

Jeepers, this just looks dire all round. Just read on Stuff too about how poorly prepared they are in Tonga, with it being Sunday and no work they haven't even been preparing the place. Cops actually out telling shops to shut

[Orion]

Link to news from Tonga:

http://matangitonga.to/2018/02/12/tonga ... ne-tonight

[Cyclone Tracy]

There is currently (2pm) a tanker skipper looking in his rear vision mirror with his pedal flat to the floor trying to out run Gita.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Centre clouds top now below -49c, she’s warming and has an eye appearing. ADT method has her at 953 hPa and falling, sustained winds around 97 knots. Incredibly, intensification continues towards a cat 5 with a mid latitude trough hanging around her neck, she’s an absolute beast. When that trough disconnects in around 30 hours, she may go Cat 5 U.S scale.

[ScottyD]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=11992789

Has it been upgraded to a Cat 5, or is this a little premature?

[Cyclone Tracy]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/artic ... d=11992789

Has it been upgraded to a Cat 5, or is this a little premature?

Looking at current updates (last 30 min), sustained winds are still under 100 knots so its still a cat 4. Fiji met service also still have as a cat 4. Only 10 knots off cat 5 now, so very likely to be a cat 5 soon.