UK Weather - Spring 2018

[Simon Culling]

It was indeed much milder on Friday and Saturday with plenty of hazy sunshine over more eastern parts of England and this lifted the mercury to 19.4*C at Gravesend and 19.0*C at Santon Downham (Suffolk) on the Saturday and these are the highest temperatures so far this year. However, fortunes have reversed since then and we have had steady light rain here in Hythe since Saturday evening and it looks as if it will persist through today (Monday) - it is only 8*C now. Looking forward, the models are more hopeful of some settled weather as we get an easterly flow established later this week. Unlike the cold weather in March, when the source of the air was Siberia, the air will now be coming from SE Europe which is a much warmer source. This will give mostly cloudy weather for a few days until next weekend, but should dry it out a bit. it will be cool and cloudy on the east coast, but the weather will be better the further west you go.

The CET for April was 7.6*C (+1.1*C) up to the 7th, and the EWR was 31mm up to the 5th, which is exactly 50% of the monthly average of 62mm.

[Simon Culling]

As suggested earlier, we have had a rather cloudy and misty week with occasional light rain and drizzle and it has not been too warm - yet. It is not unusual for the weather to get 'a bit stuck' during the spring, with a slack easterly flow providing cloudy and cool weather, particularly towards eastern coasts that get a feed off the still cold North Sea. However, a big low is developing in the mid-Atlantic and it will sit generally in this place for much of the coming week as it slowly fills from a predicted 947mb on Monday and this will advect warmer air northwards from southern Europe into next week. The forecast looks good from Monday with about a week of warm and sunny weather to come, although the 'rampers' suggestions of temperatures up to 28-30*C are wide of the mark - I think low to perhaps mid 20's is more likely. Let's hope the forecast is correct as we could do with a spell of dry and warm weather to cheer us up in these troubled times!

[NZstorm]

The forecast looks good from Monday with about a week of warm and sunny weather to come, although the 'rampers' suggestions of temperatures up to 28-30*C are wide of the mark - I think low to perhaps mid 20's is more likely.

A good test for possible max temperature is to look at the 850mb temp and add 15C.

[Simon Culling]

Thanks for the advice, NZstorm. The extended forecasts a few days ago gave the 850mb temperatures for London as varying between +5*C and +12*C for the upcoming warm spell, and this indicates temperatures in the mid-twenties and perhaps topping out at 27*C this Thursday. We shall see.

The warm air has begun to arrive today (Tues 17th April) and the mercury reached 21*C in parts of East Anglia where the most sunshine occurred. It was cooler (and quite wet) further west, with Eire having over 40mm of rain in places in the last day and a half - plus a few thunderstorms in N Ireland and west Scotland this afternoon as a front has flirted with the west side of the UK.

We will see the fronts move away to the north and west tomorrow and Thursday allowing for two sunny days over much of the UK and rising temperatures. The current maximum for the UK in April is 29.4*C which was recorded at Camden Square (London) on 16th April 1949. I think we will struggle to beat this.

The CET for April is already above average and was 8.4*C (+1.3*C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 59mm up to the 15th, which is 96% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Wednesday (18th April) was a stunning day with wall to wall sunshine here in Hythe and a maximum of 20*C. As the breeze was from the south and the English Channel SST's are still quite low (8-9*C) we are cooler on the coastal strip, but it would be difficult (for me) to find a better day - warm enough to sit out, but still cool enough to work, if required. It was sunny over most of England + Wales and quite a bit warmer inland, with the highest temperatures in and around the London area:

25.3*C at St James Park
25.2*C at RAF Northolt
25.0*C at Gravesend

It has started sunny over most of the UK today (Thurs 19th) and we are looking at a maximum of 27-28*C in the London area. The forecast for the warm spell has been extended through the weekend which is not good news for the runners in the London Marathon - they are expecting one of the hottest race days on record.

[NZstorm]

The 28C temperature for London would be the warmest April day in 70 years.
Back in April 1949 29.4C was recorded.

[Simon Culling]

Hello NZstorm - the April record was almost beaten yesterday (Thursday 19th April), with the second highest ever April temperature being recorded in London. The highest readings were:

29.1*C at St James Park
28.9*C at RAF Northolt
28.5*C at London Heathrow
28.4*C at Kew Gardens + Hampton Water Works

It was not just a London thing as most of the UK was clear and sunny and 25*C was recorded as far north as Yorkshire. East Anglia was nearly as hot as London with 28.2*C reached at Santon Downham (Suffolk). The coasts were much cooler as the SST's are still below 10*C in most parts - for example, Shoreham Airport on the south coast only had a maximum of 18.4*C despite wall to wall sunshine.

It is clear and sunny again today (Fri 20th), but slightly cooler air is filtering in from the west behind a very weak cold front so we are not expecting temperatues to be quite as high generally - although the London area could easily see 25-26*C again. Cooler and showery weather will gradually spread over the UK this weekend, but we could see both home grown and imported thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday as the transition occurs.

[NZstorm]

There is more lightning over the English Channel today than there is in USA today. A shortwave over France has triggered storms.

blitzortung

[Simon Culling]

Indeed NZstorm, I can confirm that we have had some great storms here in southern England - something on a par with what we might expect in the summer. Here in Hythe it dawned sunny and mild, but Ac Cast spread over 11hrs and it was then mostly cloudy into the afternoon with a few large raindrops. The Ac broke up at 3pm and we had some warm sunshine for a while (max just 19*C), but the high based Cu/Ac developed after 5pm with a few light showers, but we had two clutches of storms later in the evening.

The first storm here rather snuck up on me as I was not following the radar or indeed looking outside. The light started to change around 7pm but I was stuck at the dinner table. The first thunder was heard at 19:15, then lightning (mostly in cloud and cloud to cloud) was observed every 5-10 seconds between 19:20-19:45 with just one c-g strike seen around 19:35 to the west. Some quite loud thunder, but this was drowned out by heavy rain at times. There was a 2-3 minute burst of hard hail around 19:30 with most stones around 5mm, but briefly a few measured up to 10-12mm. They made quite a smack on the conservatory roof and windows.

I thought that was the end of it, but we had a tremendous lightning display later in the evening when it was dark. The first distant rumbles of thunder were heard from around 21:15 with lightning seen flickering away to the South + West, but between 21:45 and 22:45 we had lightning flashes constantly every 5-10 seconds and at times every 2 seconds. Most were in the clouds (still high based storms), but many were cloud to cloud crawlers and I did see half a dozen or so strikes to earth. There was a 25-30 minute period of constant low thunder grumbling away, interspersed with the odd loud rumble. This was quite a storm for so early in the year especially in terms of the shear amount of lightning. There was plenty of heavy rain and a burst of small hail around 22:25, but only small hail this time. The lightning slowly diminished after 22:45, but was still flickering away to the north and north west at 23:15.

[Simon Culling]

The warm weather departed to the east on Sunday evening and it has become a lot cooler with rain and showers at times - much more typical weather for April. Today (Weds 25th April), will be a day of showers and sunny intervals across the UK, with some good photo opportunities, and temperatures will range between 10*C to 15*C. This cooler weather looks set to continue for the rest of the week and into next week, with an increasing chance of longer periods of cold rain this weekend and beyond.

The CET for April was 10.1*C (+2.6*C) up to the 23rd and the EWR was 64mm up to 21st, which is 104% of the monthly average.

Maximum temperatures on the last few days of the warm spell were:

Friday 20th April - 26.8*C at Frittenden (Kent)
Saturday 21st April - 24.9*C at Bude (Cornwall), Kew Gardens + Wisley (RHS, London)
Sunday 22nd April - 25.0*C at Gravesend (Kent)

[Simon Culling]

The slow cool down from the 'heatwave' last week has continued and today (Saturday 28th April) it was cloudy and dull here in Hythe with a max temperature of just 10*C - as well as a few spits of rain/drizzle. However, it will continue to cool over the weekend and we are looking at a very cold and wet Monday next week. A depression is just starting to develop over southern Europe and this will drift north and deepen slowly to be over the southern North Sea by midday Monday giving the UK a cold NE feed and lots of rainfall - and even some snow over the higher hills such as the Downs and the Chilterns - we could see max temps of just 3*C/4*C over southern England and the Midlands which is low for this late in Spring. There is a lot of uncertainty about the rainfall and the exact position of the heaviest stuff, but some model runs go as high as 50-70mm in places for a 36 hour figure. After that, it can only get better!

[Simon Culling]

The weather almost panned out as forecast to give us a cold Monday (1st April), but the rain band was a little further east than originally expected, meaning that only areas east of the meridian had any noteworthy rainfall. The low pressure curved a little further to the east and was a twin centred affair (995mb) by 06:00GMT on the Monday morning and had given some severe thunderstorms to NE France and southern Belgium the previous evening with a number of tornadoes and golf ball sized hail, indicative of plenty of warmth and moisture on its eastern and southern flanks. For the UK, the heavy rain was confined to the far SE with the counties of Kent, Surrey, East Sussex and Essex getting quite a deluge - 30 to 40mm totals were quite widespread and a few places had more - for example 79mm at Elham and 70mm at Standen (both in Kent) in the 24 hours to 1800GMT on the Monday. It was also a cold day with a maximum of just 5.4*C at Goudhurst.

There has been much discussion as to why there were such high totals when no convective element was detected (i.e. no thunder) and the fact that the highest rainfall seemed to be confined to the higher ground of the Downs which only rise to 200-250m above sea level. It appears that the temperature became almost isothermal from about 700mb to the surface and saturated in this layer. It is suggested that as this type of atmosphere would be conducive to stationery lee wave activity, then very modest hills would have lifted this air sufficiently to produce a number of small areas with higher rainfall totals. An interesting set-up.

[Simon Culling]

We are set for another warm spell over the next 4-5 days with potentially the warmest ever Spring (May Day) Bank Holiday on record. May Day in its modern format (first Monday in May) was introduced to England in 1978 and the highest temperature was in 1999 when 23.6*C was recorded at Martyr Worthy in Hampshire. As there is no set date for May Day (it can occur anywhere between the 1st and the 7th), this is one of those media generated records rather than a meteorological one.

Today (Fri 4th May) was dry and fine with sunny periods here in Hythe and a maximum of 18*C and we will see increasing sunshine through the weekend and into the new week and a gradual rise in the temperature. A ridge from the Azores high will link with another high cell over northern Europe and keep weather fronts at bay from most of the country and hence the expected fine weather. We could see 27*C in the SE on Monday + Tuesday before a few showers or thunderstorms usher in cooler Atlantic air.

The final CET for April was 9.8*C (+2.0*C) and the EWR was 90mm, which is 146% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Much of England and Wales enjoyed a sunny weekend and Bank Holiday Monday with many places having clear blues skies and unbroken sunshine for the three day period. Unfortunately much of Scotland and N Ireland had frontal cloud and a little rain at times and fog plagued some western coasts, making these areas much cooler. The heat peaked yesterday (Mon 7th May) with 25*C recorded as far north as Yorkshire. Max temps were:

28.7*C at RAF Northolt (W London)
28.0*C at St James Park
27.9*C at Otterbourne (Hampshire)
27.3*C at Ross-on-Wye (Herefordshire)
27.0*C at Santon Downham (Suffolk), RAF Benson (Oxon) + South Farnborough (Hampshire)

Today (Tues) will be warm and sunny again in more south eastern parts, but cooler air will spread east during the day and the evening as a weak cold front moves in from the Atlantic - there may be a few brief showers and thunderstorms in East Anglia ahead of the front if it gets hot enough to break the cap. The rest of the coming week will be a lot cooler and fresher with a little rain in the offing.

CET for May was 12.5*C (+2.5*C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 9mm up to the 5th, which is 14% of the monthly average of 65mm.

[Simon Culling]

Tuesday (8th May) was also a warm day with a maximum temperature of 27.6*C at Gravesend in the east end of London. The mercury also reached 27*C at Santon Downham (Suffolk) and at Heathrow Airport. It cooled overnight into Wednesday as a very weak cold front pushed east over the UK only giving rain to the north - so no thundery end to this spell of warm weather. Since then the weather has been cooler but still mostly dry and sunny at times, although today (Sat 12th) rain is pushing northwards over SE England and will get a wet end to the day in many eastern parts. There was even a slight frost in parts of Wales, N Ireland and the SW of England this morning (Sat 12th).

Looking further ahead, the models are suggesting a deep depression will form in the north Atlantic by midweek and this will facilitate ridging of the Azores high north eastwards over southern parts keeping at least the southern half of the UK dry and a little warmer.

[Simon Culling]

The weather here in the UK is very quiet at the moment as high pressure dominates - it can definitely be called benign. Not much looks like changing over the next week or so as high pressure keeps any Atlantic fronts mostly at bay - they will only affect the NW of the UK (parts of Scotland + N Ireland). Temperature wise, it should mostly stay around normal, although with increasing sunshine at the weekend, it should nudge past 20*C again. I am sure you will all be pleased to know that the weather looks set fair for the royal wedding!!!. The last three days (Sun to Tues) have been very sunny over much of the UK and with a northerly breeze those of us on the south coast have seen the highest temperatures - up to 24*C on Tuesday in and around Southampton. Today (Weds 16th) has been much cloudier with a few patches of light rain, but still quite mild, and here in Hythe we have seen some hazy sunshine and 17*C.

The CET for May was 12.2*C (+1.6*C) up to the 15th and the EWR was 20mm up to the 14th, which is just 31% of the monthly average. Looks like being a dry month.

[Simon Culling]

The weather certainly played ball for the Royal Wedding yesterday with gin clear skies and sunshine from dawn to dusk, making the countryside around Windsor Castle look stunning. The nearest Met Office site to Windsor is actually London Heathrow where it was also clear and sunny with 14hrs of sunshine - the temperature at 11am was 17*C and at 3pm it was 21*C to give a perfect day - not often that happens in old Blighty.

The CET for May was 12.0*C (+1.3*C) up to the 19th and the EWR was 21mm up to the 18th, which is 32% of the monthly average

Looking forward, it will remain mostly dry with sunny periods over much of the UK, but fronts will flirt with the far NW. Subtle differences in the pressure fields (with a high persisting to our east) will allow a few troughs to develop over more southern parts and this will initiate a few showers and thunderstorms, especially in any sea breeze convergence zones

[Orion]

^ The weather did indeed look perfect, Simon

[spwill]

Windsor Castle area and the day did look stunning, will be huge for British tourism.

[Simon Culling]

I agree Orion + spwill - it was a good sell for the tourist dollar.

The generally fine and warm weather has continued, although a few thunderstorms developed today and yesterday over southern counties of England. We had a couple of growlers here in Hythe yesterday (Mon 21st) late in the afternoon with a decent soaking of rain for the garden, but we missed the few storms today.

It looks like remaining mostly fine through the rest of the week and the Bank Holiday weekend, although some thundery showers will affect southern counties on Thursday and again into next week when it looks a bit more promising for more widespread thunderstorms. It is also going to get warmer and more humid by the end of the weekend with possibly the first 30*C of the year on the Bank Holiday Monday. Still looks warm further out into early June.

[Simon Culling]

The forecast for mostly fine weather for the mid to end of this week did not materialise as a lot of cloud filled-in in the humid air coming from the east and south east with pulses of rain from Wednesday evening onwards, with a few thunderstorms mixed-in giving 25mm+ rain in some places. Quite a contrast from the forecast which shows how quickly things can change!

It has been quite warm and humid as well, but both of these will increase through the weekend with the threat of stronger thunderstorms today and Sunday, especially in the SW quarter of the UK. The likelihood of the first 30*C day has receded, but it will be very warm and humid if the cloud breaks and the London area could still get near to 27*C. The best weather is likely to be in NW Scotland, with plenty of sunshine and 25*C in more sheltered spots - they deserve a break after all the clag of the last few weeks.

The CET for May was 12.6*C (+1.7*C) up to the 25th and the EWR was just 24mm up to the 23rd, which is 37% of the monthly average. This will rise thru the rest of the month.

[spwill]

Lightning active storms over southern England currently.

[NZstorm]

20,000 strikes recorded over England overnight from elevated storms.

[Simon Culling]

There were at least 50,000 strikes overnight in England + Wales, although thankfully, only a few actual damaging strikes have been reported. The video on the BBC Twitter feed shows the strikes from around 8pm on Saturday to around 4am/5am on Sunday morning. There are lots more pictures if you scroll down the tweet.

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1 ... 5611896834

Here in Hythe I had to walk home quickly at 11pm as I could see frequent lightning to my south (roughly every 2-3 seconds) lighting up cauliflower shaped Cb's and with a few big raindrops beginning to fall. As it happened, the storms all moved away to my NW and had gone by midnight with only a brief sharp shower.

BBC report of a strike affecting the flights this morning at London Stansted airport:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44269304

[Simon Culling]

Further strong cells developed on Sunday afternoon in a NW-SE line across the Midlands and into north Wales, with back building later in the afternoon all the way to north London. The various lightning sites recorded between 25,000 and 30,000 further strikes from these storms which seemed to get rather stuck over certain areas. The worst affected was the city of Birmingham with a Met Office site at Winterbourne collecting 93.6mm of rain for the 24 hours to 21:00GMT, with 81mm of this falling in 3 hours in the late afternoon. The resulting flooding can be seen on this BBC link:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bi ... m-44275045

Some quite sizable hail was also observed in Northamptonshire (near Daventry) with some photos showing stones of at least 30mm diameter.