Tropical Cyclone Hola

[Nev]

Latest track-maps from JTWC and RSMC Nadi this morning…

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hola basically stalled overnight with land friction from Vanuatu part of the issue....but the latest microwave imagery is showing she has just taken an accelerated step southward. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... hr_03.html

Hot towers have appeared near the eyewall in the last couple of hours , no more lightning within the eyewall at this stage. Wind shear becomes favourable again in the next 18 hours.

Longer term EC and GEFS ensembles are singing the same tune but the UKmet has gone eastward with the ridge which I'd say is why the JTWC cone of uncertainty graphic had been shortened due to a lower confidence after 48 hours. MetService will be sweating on today's 00Z runs for EC,UK & GFS to start locking in the potential NZ hit zone. Latest GFS 18z has a solid 980 hPa XT edging on the Gulf of Hauraki with potential NE gusts of 50 to 60 knots into Auckland Monday evening.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hola has commenced another flash outbreak within the eyewall. Lightning now appearing near a hot tower at 1.50pm NZT.

[Nev]

RSMC Nadi have downgraded Hola again to a Cat 2 earlier this arvo…

STORM WARNING 016 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 090127 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 977HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1
SOUTH 165.5 EAST AT 090000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.1S 165.5E at 090000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 4 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 100000 UTC.
...

[Nev]

Latest track-maps show that JTWC has also done an about-face with their outlook.

Interestingly, according to JTWC's peak 1-minute mean-winds of 95 kt yesterday, which equates to 10-minute winds of about 84 kt, Hola never did get past Cat 3 on the BoM/Fiji Met TC Scale.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hola is erupting, punching through the troposphere and tropopause into the stratosphere. Around -100c tops around the hot towers, with another flash outbreak within the eyewall.

[Cyclone Tracy]

No surprises to me that RSMC had to upgrade Hola again to a cat 3. She really did reboot herself with her hot tower eruptions yesterday evening. Some drastic unfavourable wind shear coming up in the next 24 hours though, so XT transition will be underway by tomorrow afternoon.

[Nev]

Yes, RSMC Nadi upgraded Hola back up to Cat 3 earlier this morning (albeit temporarily), whereas JTWC has simply maintained its gradual weakening trend.

HURRICANE WARNING 018. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 091315 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 973HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 SOUTH 166.8
EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.3S 166.8E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
101200 UTC.
...

P.S. Apparently in Polynesia, Hola is a male name that means 'Run away'… lol
.

[Nev]

Hola displayed a small irregular eye briefly earlier this morning. Still a Cat 3 with a 2 hPa drop in pressure according to RSMC Nadi. JTWC also increased winds slightly this morning.

HURRICANE WARNING 019. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 091913 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 971HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5 SOUTH 167.9
EAST AT 091800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 20.5S 167.9E AT 091800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY
101800 UTC.
…

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hola has impressively maintained strength whilst going through another eyewall replacement cycle this morning. Last microwave imagery suggests a weakening phase has now commenced. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[Nev]

Hola has just been downgraded to Cat 2 again by RSMC Nadi. Convection remains persistent, but has been sheared to the SE leaving a partially exposed LLCC.

STORM WARNING 021 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 100716 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4
SOUTH 170.0 EAST AT 100600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.4S 170.0E at 100600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
35 KNOTS BY 110600 UTC.
...

[Nev]

This evening's track-maps…

[Nev]

Hola really picked up forward speed overnight as its now fully exposed LLCC crossed into MetService's area of responsibility around midnight this morning…

P.S. JTWC had a forward speed of 27 kt around 4pm.

STORM WARNING 022 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 101357 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4
SOUTH 172.4 EAST AT 101200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.4S 172.4E AT 101200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
35 KNOTS BY 111200 UTC.
...

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hola starting to look very ugly as expected but the 34 knot wobbling wind radius now out to around 130 km according to the latest ADT method calculation. Full steam ahead towards NZ waters, so I'm moving over to the NZ thread

[Nev]

Still a Cat 2 according to MetService…

WTNZ41 NZKL 101901
STORM WARNING 199
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA 980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1 SOUTH
173.2 EAST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 27.1S 173.2E AT 101800 UTC.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH HIGH TO
VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
…

[Nev]

MetService track-map...

[Nev]

Last track-maps and TCWC warning before Hola becomes fully cold cored.
LLCC just over 600 km north of Cape Reinga.

WTNZ41 NZKL 110101
STORM WARNING 206
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA 985HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8 SOUTH
173.3 EAST AT 110000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 28.8S 173.3E AT 110000 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH HIGH TO
VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 31.8S 174.4E AT 111200 UTC
AND NEAR 35.0S 176.3E AT 120000 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 199.