Ex TC Hola impacts NZ March 11-13

[Razor]

Thought this needs a topic now as its becoming evident that there will likely be significant weather for the North Island

The double header lower latitudes beast a few days after looks like a potential other thread in a few days too!

[Cyclone Tracy]

EC cranking it up and going 970's around Upper NI and Auckland. The projected south westerly sting in the tail on Tuesday morning is going to be interesting.

[harleyb]

Still a week out, but here's a hint of a second ex-cyclone coming our way from the north Tasman a few days after Hola. Surely not?

rain-nz-2018030900-168.gif

[Dean.]

Still a week out, but here's a hint of a second ex-cyclone coming our way from the north Tasman a few days after Hola. Surely not?

rain-nz-2018030900-168.gif

With the accuracy of GFS of late I woudnt be suprised

[Razor]

Still a week out, but here's a hint of a second ex-cyclone coming our way from the north Tasman a few days after Hola. Surely not?

rain-nz-2018030900-168.gif

Looks to have been a rogue one

[harleyb]

Looks that way. There's still a hint of the remnants of something ex-tropical crossing NZ in about a week's time, but it no longer looks as dramatic as that last run suggested. Something to watch out for after Hola anyway.

[Razor]

Hola is nudging slightly east of earlier predictions which is good news. And the second midweek system is pretty much disappearing on GFS

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hola spreading its wing span and its circulation centre becoming slightly elongated as the cold core develops. Interesting to see that EC’s last run 12Z is more accurate than any other models including GFS and Access R latest 00z runs on the centre of circulation position. GFS is correcting back to the west on the 00Z run to what EC had on 12Z.

The movement of the low has almost been due south for the last hour, which is what EC 12z projected and why it is currently most accurate. Steering observations will be fascinating over the next 6 hours. IMO, I’m seeing a greater hit on the upper NI than what is being presented in the latest MS warnings.

[Cyclone Tracy]

As expected, latest MS track map now has upgraded the attack on the upper NI and Auckland with the track map moving westward from the last issue. Their warnings will need to be adjusted you would think.

[Ash]

I agree. Could be quite the ride for Auckland northwards.

[NZstorm]

The current dewpoint in Auckland is only 11C which is a good indicator for a lot of rain today. The big thermal contrast makes for an active warm front. DP chart for this afternoon showing tropical air offshore to our east.

[Nev]

The position-times for Ex-TC Hola on MS's last 2 track-maps at 7pm yesterday and 1am this morn don't seem to make a lot of sense.

(Ex)TC Hola - MetService Track-maps to 1am, Mar 12.png

Neither do the positions of 30S 173E at 7pm yesterday and 30S 174E at 1am this morn on their last 2 Subtropic Storm Warnings, i.e. virtually stationary?

[David]

Has certainly been a changing picture in the models. Couple days back EC was showing a 976hPa hit. Now showing it only around 993hPa off the east coast of Northland.

[CbFan]

Just a normal low cloud wet day at Whangaroa so far, certainly nothing to get excited about.
15mm in the three hours since the first heavy drops about 6, and moderate SE.

[Nev]

Latest track is a little more east. Also shows the apparent stall and small dogleg more clearly.
MS tweettered that it's 'speeding up as it gets captured by strong winds in upper atmosphere'.

Forecast for the Gulf is 75 km/h S>SW winds gusting to 100 km/h from late morn and this arvo.
Just a little light rain atm.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Just had a quick look at the 10am sat pic and 12Z model runs. With the low stalling and heading more SSE, to me it looks more of a wet system than a windy system for land areas. It also doesn't currently have the upper environment to deepen as models initially projected.

[Happy Feet]

It hasn't been remarkable so far in Kaikohe - just steady rain and a light gusty wind which all started about 8am. But I just took the dog for a walk and there's a strong, gusty, cold southeasterly getting up in the past few minutes, which might mean there's a bit more severe weather still to come

[RODALCO]

Steady rain and hardly any wind in Omaha, where I am on a power shutdown.

[David]

A steady gentle rain here with 8mm so far. Very little wind. Has Hola tracked further east than expected?

[NZstorm]

Unseasonably cool day with airport temp 17C all day.
2012 was the last time we had such cool air in March.

[Cyclone Tracy]

1004.5 hPa here, down from 1016 hPa around midnight, 16mm , highest wind gust 30 km/h.

Sandy bay around the Coromandel is at 1000 hPa, Mokohinau Islands 1000 hPa, White Island 1002 hPa

[Nev]

Has Hola tracked further east than expected?

Yeah considerably further east than previous forecasts according to this evening's 7pm track-map. So winds not too bad out here today. 36mm here since about 10am.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Nice and breezy here now. down to 1003.2 hPa.

I just did had a quick look at MS 8pm land observations and quickly mapped the 8pm sat pic. Mine is not perfect as obviously the pressure gradients are not perfectly round but I reckon its a lot closer than that MS track map. Their low position isn't even close IMO I think they are still doing it on sat tracking and not reconciling to land obs.

[David]

We got 26mm in Howick yesterday. Was quite steady over about a 9 hour period. Nice watering for the garden which was getting a bit dry.

[spwill]

The biggest impact here was the unusually cool day. Gentle rain through the afternoon with little or no wind.
The lawns needed a drink after a dryish past 4 weeks