NZ Weather Forum

A dry start to April for most apart from the south and west of the South Island. The westerlies are further north now with a switch in the SAM and a ridge across the North Island through the coming week.

Possibly a couple of repeats of yesterday's weather for the first week of April.

Latest run of EU has very cold air over NZ next week. Just model output at this stage.

850mb temp anomaly for next Tuesday.

Does anyone have any weather maps for 9th April 1968 (day before Wahine storm?) The only one I have seen is a simplified one from the evening post only showing a few isobars. The NCEP reanalysis maps are not particularly accurate and dont match the observations that I have managed to get.

Firing up in the Tasman Sea at the moment with the Blitz recording over 3000 strikes.
I see MS have up graded their warning for thunderstorms early tomorrow for Westland probably because of this front.

Next week looking very Autumnal for NZ at this stage.

spwill wrote: ↑Tue 03/04/2018 07:19 Next week looking very Autumnal for NZ at this stage.

Looks to be a snow level of around 700-800m at this stage with a decent drop of between 10-20mm for most of Canterbury, certainly a low snow level for early April

Latest GFS run has just about completely wiped out Mondays significant weather

Tropics are becoming interesting in a few days, then EC is going for full blown XTC Fujiwhara effect late next week around the NI viewtopic.php?f=9&t=5733&p=174240#p174240

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 04/04/2018 06:57 Latest GFS run has just about completely wiped out Mondays significant weather

Latest run of EC has it back on with widespread falls of 30-50mm of twin for Canterbury and snow down to 400m for a time on Wednesday!!

UK, EC, Access and Icon 00Z runs are singing the same tune for an aggressive core cold cyclone for NZ mid next week. GFS not interested ATM

Polar vortex is starting to want to shake hands with the sub tropics and warm SST's. There is some incredible model projections coming out at the moment. NAVGEM 00Z is a classic.... 3 tropical cyclones and a cold core cyclone on the SW pacific synoptics for next Tuesday and Wednesday....looks like a Hollywood movie map

BOM revving things up from Sunday, especially around Tuesday. Looking forward to this, and maybe at long last a storm risk for Chch with 500mb air going south of-26C all the way to -34 into Wednesday.

First polar jet stream of the year to cross the North Island early next week. Upper North Island may get a thunderstorm day out of it.

April May are often the best thunderstorm days here when we get an early setup like this. Detail still to be known but I like the looks so far.

Nice dusting of snow by the looks of things on the Takatimu mountain range north of Invercargill, down to about 1200m

Southerly came through here, well we were in Temuka at the time, around 4pm, with a bit of dust flying around, after a rather warm day here in Geraldine, with light winds.
.

Overnight models still indicating a significant polar jet stream early to mid next week for the country.
A snow event on the cards for inland South Island.

Total Totals chart for Tuesday 9am, those numbers very favourable for lightning coming into the west of the North Island with the front.

How low down do you think the snow will come? are places like Arrowtown/Frankton likely to see snow?

Andy wrote: ↑Sat 07/04/2018 09:39 How low down do you think the snow will come? are places like Arrowtown/Frankton likely to see snow?

I'd say will be pretty close Andy! The models are showing it to be colder and colder for the South island. Heavy snow down to 500-600 on the cards

Andy wrote: ↑Sat 07/04/2018 09:39 How low down do you think the snow will come? are places like Arrowtown/Frankton likely to see snow?

Yes. But not at mid-winter intensities.

500mb jet coming onto the North Island Tuesday modeled to be 100knots! Some of the thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts.

Depending on location of the low late Tuesday, Auckland area could see severe gales SW'ers.

Potential for several thunderstorm days for the western NI this week. Plenty of snow for the higher parts of Canterbury.

spwill wrote: ↑Sun 08/04/2018 09:19 Potential for several thunderstorm days for the western NI this week. Plenty of snow for the higher parts of Canterbury.

I think coastal Otago/Canterbury should hear thunder too.

500mb chart for midnight Tuesday.

GFS has been indicating the possibility of elevated thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday for Auckland Northland. Looks to be a slow moving warm front.

Models suggesting more alpine snow over the next week or two for Sth Island.