Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Wed 08/04/2015 19:24
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 29 times
- Been thanked: 44 times
Low level snow event 9-15 April
Given most models are in agreement i thought its worth starting a thread. Tony is now suggesting snow to near sea level in southland and very low in Canterbury
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2881
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 1152 times
Re: Low level snow event 9-15 april
I've pointed out that some model guidance shows that. I'm still on the fence as to whether it will happen. We need to get a bit closer, but its one of the cards on the table. A stormy, wet cold week for sure, and probably the defining weather event of the month.talbotmj15 wrote: ↑Sat 07/04/2018 09:53 Given most models are in agreement i thought its worth starting a thread. Tony is now suggesting snow to near sea level in southland and very low in Canterbury
-
- Posts: 3470
- Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
- Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 92 times
Re: Low level snow event 9-15 april
Unusual for so early, but only 3 years ago we had snow to low levels on the Port Hills in mid April.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
I think this set up deserves it's own thread with it's wide reaching impacts. All models locking in gale to storm force winds, rain, snow, storms, across large parts of NZ. Then a follow up system pushes in late Thursday which potentially combines into the initial system and an ex tropical cyclone off the east of NZ producing a 3 way Fujiwhara effect. The MS website is going to look very busy quite soon.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- Tornado Tim
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
- Has thanked: 102 times
- Been thanked: 202 times
- Contact:
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Yes, this weather event is probably going to be quite significant, The possibility of severe squalls on the leading edge on the front is significant, due to the still abnormally warm sea sfc temps, and due to the very cold upper level air coupled with a strong dynamic upper level jet.
I will be watching this event very closely as the squall line potential is quite high, might head to Brians if he's around on Wednesday if the prognostic doesnt change much.
I will be watching this event very closely as the squall line potential is quite high, might head to Brians if he's around on Wednesday if the prognostic doesnt change much.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
- David
- Posts: 7585
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 416 times
- Been thanked: 830 times
- Contact:
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
GFS showing midday temp 14C in Auckland on Wednesday. That will be a shock! It has consistently been around 23C most days this month.
-
- Posts: 18489
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Maybe colder than that.
Interesting to see how this system pans out
Today's MS's SWO is the longest I've seen, they even had to leave bit's out for later in the week as not to jam up their SWO map
Interesting to see how this system pans out
Today's MS's SWO is the longest I've seen, they even had to leave bit's out for later in the week as not to jam up their SWO map
Last edited by NZ Thunderstorm Soc on Sun 08/04/2018 19:00, edited 1 time in total.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- snowchaser01
- Posts: 556
- Joined: Sat 11/04/2015 18:46
- Location: Northwood, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 71 times
- Been thanked: 95 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Certainly an interesting few days coming up. If snow falls as low down here as what some people are saying... surely thats near to unheard of for April?
Born and bred Cantab. Weather is my passion. Reporting from northern Christchurch.
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
Check me out on Youtube!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCa9rslfDkfWR3X6Spw5b5yA
-
- Posts: 18489
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Maybe interesting weather for the anniversary of the Wahine Disaster, a replay
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 3470
- Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
- Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 92 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Unusual, but far from unknown. (snow to low levels on Port Hills in mid-April 2015)snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sun 08/04/2018 17:57 Certainly an interesting few days coming up. If snow falls as low down here as what some people are saying... surely thats near to unheard of for April?
-
- Posts: 1518
- Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
- Location: Christchurch
- Has thanked: 142 times
- Been thanked: 269 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
There certainly was!tich wrote: ↑Sun 08/04/2018 20:37Unusual, but far from unknown. (snow to low levels on Port Hills in mid-April 2015)snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Sun 08/04/2018 17:57 Certainly an interesting few days coming up. If snow falls as low down here as what some people are saying... surely thats near to unheard of for April?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
The snow event will come in two parts, warm advection snow tomorrow, mostly Canterbury to Malborough and then cold advection (cb's) coming up later in the day.
-
- Posts: 1444
- Joined: Tue 04/11/2014 18:13
- Location: Lyttelton
- Has thanked: 947 times
- Been thanked: 362 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
After the Northern Hemisphere winter dragged on and ended with a major bang it seems ours is starting early with a similar bang! Ok, not -15 850s and sea-effect snow like over England but extreme at any rate.
It may be being missed but coastal Canterbury is also under a heavy rain watch for today and tomorrow, and the outlook has moderate confidence for a warning for this rain going towards Wednesday. Accompanied by southerly gales.
Selfishly I hope this clears by the weekend, I'm hoping to do the Tongariro crossing then!
It may be being missed but coastal Canterbury is also under a heavy rain watch for today and tomorrow, and the outlook has moderate confidence for a warning for this rain going towards Wednesday. Accompanied by southerly gales.
Selfishly I hope this clears by the weekend, I'm hoping to do the Tongariro crossing then!
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
I see a small cluster of storms has developed on a shortwave in mid Tasman, will reach Taranaki and then Waitomo later tonight. Main action comes in after day break tomorrow with severe thunderstorms possible.
-
- Posts: 9918
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 847 times
- Been thanked: 869 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
The only cool day I can remember in Auckland this year was on Feb 12th, the max was 18C but the temperature much of the day was around 16C in rain and low dps, caused partly by a tropical low.
-
- Posts: 2711
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 355 times
- Been thanked: 607 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
I definitely see a risk of a thunderstorm/hailstorm up the coastal fringes of Otago and Canterbury tomorr ow afternoon/evening.
More wintry set up yes but thunder on the cards given we are still only in April and with the warmth we have had lately. Will keep watch
More wintry set up yes but thunder on the cards given we are still only in April and with the warmth we have had lately. Will keep watch
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
- David
- Posts: 7585
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 416 times
- Been thanked: 830 times
- Contact:
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Today's TS outlook from Metservice
Valid to: Midnight Monday 9 Apr 2018
Issued at: 8:17am Monday 9 Apr 2018
Late today an intense frontal band moves onto western areas of central New Zealand. This system brings a high risk of thunderstorms tonight in Taranaki,Horowhenua Kapiti Coast, the Marlborough Sounds, the far west of Nelson and Buller with heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm/hr, hail, strong wind gusts 90 to 110 km/h,and possibly small tornadoes. In this area there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms bringing damaging wind gusts of more than 110 km/h and there is a chance of localized damaging tornadoes as indicated on the chart.
There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a broader area as indicated on the chart.
No thunderstorms or significant convection expected in other areas of New Zealand during this period.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2202
- Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
- Location: Waikawa, Picton
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 74 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
40-60cm of snow porters pass! Wow.
Potential for chch south to be cut off from the rest of NZ if heavy rain closes SH1 kaikoura and heavy snow closes all other freight routes
Potential for chch south to be cut off from the rest of NZ if heavy rain closes SH1 kaikoura and heavy snow closes all other freight routes
-
- Posts: 2711
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 355 times
- Been thanked: 607 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Should be risk out for thunderstorms Otago /Canterbury coast tomorrow afternoon/evening to.David wrote: ↑Mon 09/04/2018 08:44 Today's TS outlook from MetserviceValid to: Midnight Monday 9 Apr 2018
Issued at: 8:17am Monday 9 Apr 2018
Late today an intense frontal band moves onto western areas of central New Zealand. This system brings a high risk of thunderstorms tonight in Taranaki,Horowhenua Kapiti Coast, the Marlborough Sounds, the far west of Nelson and Buller with heavy rain, 10 to 25 mm/hr, hail, strong wind gusts 90 to 110 km/h,and possibly small tornadoes. In this area there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms bringing damaging wind gusts of more than 110 km/h and there is a chance of localized damaging tornadoes as indicated on the chart.
There is a low risk of thunderstorms in a broader area as indicated on the chart.
No thunderstorms or significant convection expected in other areas of New Zealand during this period.
Probably will be when they update the charts tonight
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
A bit of weather in the models Just had a close look at the latest runs and all the big models and local high res models are fairly well synced. Using the latest GFS 18z as an example, there are extreme differences from 850 to 500 hPa. Throw in the SST's and this looks atomic on storms. I'm not surprised tornadoes is in the MS language now. Maybe even the rare snowspout is a chance over some of the lakes in the southern Alps
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Access R and GFS 00z just increased the size of 60 knot sustained wind field at 850 hPa over parts of the upper North Island tomorrow evening. MS warning now up to gusts of 65 knots on the waters. I think that might be conservative if Access R is correct. Have dinner early and get your candles ready around Auckland tomorrow evening.
-
- Posts: 4000
- Joined: Sun 08/08/2010 16:49
- Location: Ashburton, Mid-Canterbury, 110m asl.
- Has thanked: 1375 times
- Been thanked: 332 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
"Atomic" meaning ? http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/atomicCyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 09/04/2018 14:44 A bit of weather in the models Just had a close look at the latest runs and all the big models and local high res models are fairly well synced. Using the latest GFS 18z as an example, there are extreme differences from 850 to 500 hPa. Throw in the SST's and this looks atomic on storms. I'm not surprised tornadoes is in the MS language now. Maybe even the rare snowspout is a chance over some of the lakes in the southern Alps
-
- Posts: 2202
- Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
- Location: Waikawa, Picton
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 74 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Rain really setting in here, 5mm and temp dropped quick to 8.6C
Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk
Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk
-
- Posts: 2488
- Joined: Thu 07/09/2017 19:25
- Location: North Shore, Auckland
- Has thanked: 771 times
- Been thanked: 1719 times
Re: Low pressure sequence April 10 - 14
Orion wrote: ↑Mon 09/04/2018 16:53"Atomic" meaning ?Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 09/04/2018 14:44 A bit of weather in the models Just had a close look at the latest runs and all the big models and local high res models are fairly well synced. Using the latest GFS 18z as an example, there are extreme differences from 850 to 500 hPa. Throw in the SST's and this looks atomic on storms. I'm not surprised tornadoes is in the MS language now. Maybe even the rare snowspout is a chance over some of the lakes in the southern Alps
Just a descriptive term for the release of a lot of energy but weather wise