General May Weather

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks like a cold start fo May

[melja]

Cold in may, fancy that.

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[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Cold in may, fancy that.

May be so, but then May be not

[talbotmj15]

Seems to be something brewing around 11-15th May. Both GFS and EC picking it up. has been in a few different runs now for a couple of days. Could be a good southern snow storm. Long way out so we shall wait with glee.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The American ensemble GEFS has impressively predicted 2 weeks out the moderate sudden stratospheric warming event that is currently underway. Higher and lower levels of the stratosphere now under significant warming. Mixing downward into lower layers is underway with multiple models now showing the large impact on the polar jet and 500 hPa vortex around 240 to 280 hours. EC fairly graphic at 240 hours. Jury is still out with me on what it really means, as I've never seen this set up before with the warmer SST's.

[Chris W]

I have to say that May is starting wonderfully well in Christchurch, a very sunny and fairly warm week through to Sunday at this point.

Having experienced a few SSW events in the UK it will be very interesting to observe one down here. In the north the reversing zonal winds usually mean cold from the east or north east for the UK, because there is a cold continent adjacent. NZ does not have that. I am guessing if the westerlies weaken then the door opens further to cold from the south or south east?

[Razor]

Looks like a pretty boring spell of weather ahead fire the next while. Could be some warm Norwest for this time of year

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Some interesting cold thundertop cloud moving across today to the NE with virga. Some mammatus forms.

[Richard]

Some interesting cold thundertop cloud moving across today to the NE with virga. Some mammatus forms.

And they were interesting to watch forming on Himawari-8, appears to have been a upper level trough was it not

[tich]

Some interesting cold thundertop cloud moving across today to the NE with virga. Some mammatus forms.

And they were interesting to watch forming on Himawari-8, appears to have been a upper level trough was it not

Saw them in Chch this afternoon. Radar showed light precipitation over Chch - must've been the virga. (nothing reaching ground level that I felt)

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Some weaker forms of this was observed yesterday, but today's upper cloud forms looked more interesting as if an ULT was moving across from the SW. Looked very cold and unstable, wih anvil forms and mammatus and some castellanus, together with higher Cs uncinus, as if there were thunderstorms around. Might be interesting for what's coming up

[Chris Raine]

Yes saw that on the West Coast too today

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Here's a picture from today looking towards Mt. Peel.

[Richard]

you got a glasshouse John

[Razor]

Some interesting cold thundertop cloud moving across today to the NE with virga. Some mammatus forms.

Yes, looked interesting from here in Chch too.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

you got a glasshouse John

What gives you this idea?

[NZstorm]

Here's a picture from today looking towards Mt. Peel.

GFS sounding here for 3pm yesterday showing that upper level instability that generated the clouds.

[NZstorm]

Looks like a slight chance for thunder over the west of the North Island tomorrow with that weak front. We will be in the exit region of the subtropical jet so if there is any instability a cb would develop.


Looking like an good influx of tropical moisture over the North Island in a weeks time. GFS dewpoint chart here. Signifies a warm front across the North Island quite nicely.

Dewpoint chart next Friday

[Orion]

Thickish mist has come in here, bringing about a ceasefire in the fusillade that commenced at 6:50am

[RWood]

Here's a picture from today looking towards Mt. Peel.

Nice light and cloud effects ...

[Chris W]

Saw some of those clouds some of you are mentioning yesterday early evening over Porters Pass as I headed east, the clouds looking amazing in the pink sunset light. Never seen anything quite like it, very beautiful.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

More thicker and slightly lower cloud formations today after a quite a misty/foggy start.
Felt sorry for the poor ducks this morning as it looked like perfect conditions down here.
Why don't they shoot pest birds instead. ie Magpies or Starlings etc
....anyway a 'hearty' NW Arch down here with not much wind and a rather cool day, typical what you get when the thick high cloud blocks the sun and you don't get much wind.
Here is some mammatus forms in the cloud overhead approaching sunset, today.

[shovelopikis]

More thicker and slightly lower cloud formations today after a quite a misty/foggy start.
Felt sorry for the poor ducks this morning as it looked like perfect conditions down here.
Why don't they shoot pest birds instead. ie Magpies or Starlings etc
....anyway a 'hearty' NW Arch down here with not much wind and a rather cool day, typical what you get when the thick high cloud blocks the sun and you don't get much wind.
Here is some mammatus forms in the cloud overhead approaching sunset, today.

Would you eat a magpie or starling?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Would you eat a magpie or starling?

I don't know? What do they taste like?
Probably better than a duck ladened with shotgun pellets
Mind you, ducks can be a pest as they poo in unlikely places especially in doorways were people tend to feed them with bread crusts, etc, which are not very good for them anyway.
This happens quite often in rest homes and places where a high standard of hygene is required.

[Richard]

NW has been strong at times this morning, nice and dry to get a bit of gardening done though