NZ Weather Forum

34mm in the last hour in Howick. Just short of my stations highest hourly rain record of 36.4mm, but has eased way back now.

Always good to check which models pick up these mesoscale water slides. Currently 43mm at my location, here are what the 12z runs projected for my location until 3pm NZT.

Access R 30 to 40mm, CMC 30 to 40mm, UK Met 30 to 40mm, EC 20 to 30mm, Icon 5 to 10mm, GFS 1 to 5mm

Cyclone Tracy wrote:Always good to check which models pick up these mesoscale water slides. Currently 43mm at my location, here are what the 12z runs projected for my location until 3pm NZT.

Access R 30 to 40mm, CMC 30 to 40mm, UK Met 30 to 40mm, EC 20 to 30mm, Icon 5 to 10mm, GFS 1 to 5mm

Thanks for that. That’s quite interesting.

GFS way off the mark! It astounds me how many NZers take the GFS for truth and then complain when it doesn’t happen. This is a clear example of just how wrong it can be.


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Hearing some very distant thunder here now... somewhere to the east I think

73mm here in my manual gauge for the last 8 hrs - heavy at times, but has eased off now.

Great radar pic from MS…
Also hearing some loud distant thunder. Warning issued by MS at 12:30pm…

Radar is showing some intense patches around Hamilton at present. Weather station obs don't seem to align with what the radar is showing?

David wrote:Radar is showing some intense patches around Hamilton at present. Weather station obs don't seem to align with what the radar is showing?

Once again Will and I forgot the annual internet bill so mine is offline. But we are getting 10mm/hr. Just solid heavy rain. Nothing torrential. Up to 20mm here since midnight. Most of that falling since about 10am.


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33.7mm here. Nothing for the last half hour or so, looks to be clearing a little.

This stream about 120m from home (straight line distance) rose several metres and took out the fences either side of the walkway over the stream. Talked to some people whose homes are next to it, they were down there inspecting the damage and told me they've never seen it go that high before (in 20-30 years they've been there)

And here's a little clip taken on my phone during the heaviest part, showing the pooling around the house and gutters overflowing (WARNING - may be loud)

Thunder here. About to get heaviest rain of the day I think


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MetService are forecasting snow to 400m for mid to north Canterbury Weds to Thurs, and heavy rain at lower levels. Certainly some very cold air approaching at that time. Also southerly takes to boot.

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... er-outlook

I should be driving to Kaikoura on Wednesday morning for work, might be interesting.

Edit - looks crazy for you guys up north right now!

Quite interesting that the water vapour imagery has been quite clear on substantial mid and upper level moisture levels in the last 18 hours for this system but MS only issued a heavy rainfall warning at 10.10am this morning for multiple locations south of Northland effective almost immediately. Quite reactive rather than pre-emptive by MS in my opinion. Basically doing warnings off radar


Anyway.... had a little an unofficial check north of Auckland and spotted a staggering cloud burst on Omaha beach. Multiple locations near this PWS have had over 100mm+ this morning but this PWS had 236mm, a total water bomb if its correct.

WeatherWatch.co.nz well behind with this cold blast next week. Their forecast for Christchurch on Wendesday mentions odd showers and cool southerlies?

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Sun 03/06/2018 15:20 Anyway.... had a little an unofficial check north of Auckland and spotted a staggering cloud burst on Omaha beach. Multiple locations near this PWS have had over 100mm+ this morning but this PWS had 236mm, a total water bomb if its correct.

I know the PWS you mean, it has been reading >2 times greater than other nearby stations for many months, wouldn't trust that data myself...

David wrote: ↑Sun 03/06/2018 16:04

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Sun 03/06/2018 15:20 Anyway.... had a little an unofficial check north of Auckland and spotted a staggering cloud burst on Omaha beach. Multiple locations near this PWS have had over 100mm+ this morning but this PWS had 236mm, a total water bomb if its correct.

I know the PWS you mean, it has been reading >2 times greater than other nearby stations for many months, wouldn't trust that data myself...

Yes, I think the divide by 2 method would makes sense looking at the others nearby. Even 118mm isn't a bad drop though

I'm thinking a new topic might be needed for the snow event so the posts don't get mixed up with the northern rain event?

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Finished with 45mm here. Last 10min had about 10mm fall.

Right now I have a stunning display of Mammatus clouds. Rivals what displays we got in USA.
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melja wrote: ↑Sun 03/06/2018 16:09 I'm thinking a new topic might be needed for the snow event so the posts don't get mixed up with the northern rain event?

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I agree, if someone creates one (I'm happy to), and a mod will need to transfer posts from this topic over?

Just my friendly 2 bobs worth on the SI snow event, this current low pressure system is what will be feeding moisture into the upper polar trough once the surface low pushes off the east coasts of NI and SI. Exact location and precip amounts is still doubtful as models proved by the downgrades and upgrades in the last 24 hours. You might want to keep an eye on this initial Tasman low for your new thread as it's a crucial part of the puzzle

Display getting better with time too. Incredible!
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Yea the display of Mammatus here atm, is amazing!

Great mammatus!

Good rainfall tallys today. A good time of the year for heavy rain as you get the overlap between polar jet and subtropical moisture.

Great shots there.

Only brief heavy rain here, nothing intense.