UK Weather - Summer 2018

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

As the 1st of June is deemed to be the start of the meteorological summer in the Northern hemisphere, it is time for a new thread. The new month has seen a continuation of the warm and rather humid weather of late May and plenty of thunderstorms broke out in inland areas of northern England, much of Ireland and in Scotland on the first day of the month - a couple of funnel clouds were also observed. The NW of Scotland has had over a week of sunny and dry weather, but they have now joined in on the storm regime as they clear more southern parts of the UK.

The storms have continued in more northern parts of the UK toady (Sat 2nd June) with some bright echoes on the rain radar - the storms are also slow moving and in mountainous areas, so there could be some quite large point rainfall totals at a few sites - assuming one is in the right place!

EDIT: A few rainfall figures for the Scotland storms for yesterday afternoon (2nd June) - 67mm fell at Sluggan (Speyside) and 66mm at Dunnswood (near Cumbernauld, to the east of Glasgow).
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by RWood »

Simon, my daughter in Worthing says she heard a news item stating that West Sussex had its warmest and sunniest May on record - or something like that. Can you clarify please?
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Rupert, I will answer your question in the Spring thread as it applies to that period, but May 2018 was indeed warm and sunny over much of the UK.

West has been best for temperatures in the last couple of days as the NE breeze has brought a lot of cloud (Stratus + Stratocumulus) to more eastern and central parts. The temperature hit 26.6*C at Porthmadog in NW Wales yesterday (Mon 4th June) as a fohn effect assisted the heating, courtesy of the Welsh mountains to its east. This warmth triggered a few showers and thunderstorms in west Wales and SW England and a very photogenic landspout was observed at a place called Neyland which is near Milford Haven in the Welsh county of Pembrokeshire.

http://pembrokeshire-herald.com/44777/m ... rokeshire/
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has remained mostly settled and mild in the southern half of the UK and rather cloudy at times with only a few light showers. The hotter weather has persisted in the west and more particularly Scotland and Eire with scattered thunderstorms on most days. Today (Saturday 9th June) some stronger storms formed over southern and central Scotland this afternoon with reports of hail to at least 30mm around Dunblane and on the M9 motorway in this area. A few cells also formed in the far north of England with a well formed funnel cloud photographed in the Eden Valley in Cumbria.

The highest temperature in recent days occurred on Thursday (7th June) at a place named Porthmadog on the west coast of Wales. It is sheltered from the rather persistent NE winds of recent days and thanks to a fohn effect reached 27.5*C on this date.

The CET for June was 16.2*C (+2.8*C) up to the 8th and the EWR was just 7mm up to the 7th which is 11% of the monthly average of 65mm.

EDIT: The forecasts have changed a bit recently and we are now looking at a return of the westerlies by the middle of the coming week, so it will be cooler and more unsettled.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We have a change in the weather coming in the next few days that is often referred to as the 'return of the westerlies'. This sounds more exiting than the reality as it just means that the anomalous north east or easterly flow will be replaced by the more normal south westerly and the UK will come under the influence of weather systems off the Atlantic. One such system will develop over the next few days and pass close to the north of Scotland on Thursday - the central pressure is expected to be around 972mb by midday on Thursday (14th June). This will bring gales and plenty of rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland, but not a great deal to the rest of us. Its main legacy will be a much cooler and fresher westerly flow for later in the week and into the weekend with a few showers.

Stornoway, on the Hebridean island of Lewis has not seen any measurable rainfall for 22 days (since 21st May) which is very unusual for the part of the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-44437551

Yesterday (11th June) it was still warm and the temperature hit 25*C in many parts of England + Wales as the sunny weather continued, and the highest reading I can find was 26.6*C at Bournemouth on the south coast.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by RWood »

Another question Simon - I have been perusing a large list of sunshine averages for UK locations for 1981-2010. As was the case for earlier times, it is clear that in Scotland (and some of northern and western England, plus Wales and I think Northern Ireland) that May is the sunniest month of the year. An outstanding example is Tiree. If some approximate percentages of recordable amounts using daylength were to be calculated, I have no doubt that a much larger portion of the UK would show May as being the sunniest month in relative terms, allowing for daylength. Is there a straightforward explanation for this - e.g. by considering predominant seasonal airflows?
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Rupert, I think a lot of it has to do with synoptics. With longer daylight hours in June you might expect this month to have more sunshine on average than May, but in reality, SW winds (which are much more cloudy in general here in the UK) are less prominent in April and May in the UK than at any other time of the year and northern blocking is most likely in these two months. This would give drier and sunnier weather on average than a SW flow. The linked article gives a bit more information on UK wind direction seasonality:

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 02/wea.301

Storm Hector (as the impending depression has been named) is developing quickly and will pass to the NW of the UK overnight tonight and into Thursday and is expected to be at 969mb by noon on this day and roughly halfway between the north of Scotland and Iceland. The forecasters are going for gusts to 75/80mph in exposed parts of Eire and N + NW Scotland which will not be good for the trees as they are in full leaf at this moment in time. This is quite a strong storm for this time of the year.
Last edited by Simon Culling on Tue 19/06/2018 05:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by spwill »

We get a lot of SW wind flows onto NZ but unfortunately SW is a cooler direction for NZ unlike the UK.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by RWood »

Simon Culling wrote: Thu 14/06/2018 10:01 Rupert, I think a lot of it has to do with synoptics. With longer daylight hours in June you might expect this month to have more sunshine on average than May, but in reality, SW winds (which are much more cloudy in general here in the UK) are less prominent in April and May in the UK than at any other time of the year and northern blocking is most likely in these two months. This would give drier and sunnier weather on average than a SW flow. The linked article gives a bit more information on UK wind direction seasonality:

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 02/wea.301

Storm Hector (as the impending depression has been named) is developing quickly and will pass to the NW of the UK overnight tonight and into Thursday and is expected to be at 969mb by noon on this day and roughly halfway between the north of Scotland and Iceland. The forecasters are going for gusts to 75/80mph in exposed parts of Eire and N + NW Scotland which will not be good for the trees as they are in full leaf at the moment in time. This is quite a strong storm for this time of the year.
Thanks Simon, that makes it pretty clear. I see they cite a secondary but smaller tendency in part of autumn, but whether that is reflected in any of the temp/rainfall/sun stats would be harder to detect, if present at all.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by NZstorm »

June probably has a lot more afternoon convective cloud than May.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

NZstorm, I am not sure that daytime convection would be the key element here as June often sees 'the return of the westerlies'. i.e. more of an Atlantic influence, and especially for the north of the UK. Winds from the SW are predominantly cloudy at any time of the year and especially on the west side of the UK. Even in spring and summer the NW and W of Scotland can be subjected to plenty of cloudy and damp weather with little or no sunshine for days on end - this is not just the preserve of the winter. Winds from the N to E quadrant (or indeed just anticyclonic conditions) are most frequent over the UK in April + May and can bring the best weather of the year to the Highlands - if you do not mind the midges! The east coast of Scotland (and indeed England) will be plagued by low cloud and low temperatures if there is a more E or SE element to the wind.

Storm Hector provided some strong winds and quite a lot of rain for more northern and western parts of the UK, but it was barely noticed here in the south - in fact it gave us a warm and sunny day yesterday. The worst of the winds were over Ireland with gusts to 74mph at Orlock Head (on the E coast of N Ireland) and 70mph at Mace Head on the west coast of Eire. The former has been quoted as the highest wind gust recorded in N Ireland in the month of June but I think the records only go back to 1969 for this weather element.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-44468321

The forecast for the week ahead looks to be mainly dry (after some showers this weekend) with increasing heat next week - we could see our first 30*C day of the summer.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather calmed down very quickly after Storm Hector departed our shores - the depression centre dropped to about 967mb at 3pm on last Thursday afternoon when it was to the north of Scotland which is quite deep for the time of year. We have had a rather cloudy westerly flow since then, although an active line of storms developed on Saturday afternoon over the Midlands and northern England giving squalls and heavy rain to a some places. Down here in the south it has been generally cloudy with patchy rain/drizzle but the sun has returned today (Mon 18th) and it has become pleasantly warm here in Hythe - up to 22*C. The air is quite humid and 25-26*C has been reached inland near to London and this is an indicator of things to come over the next few days - sunshine after a cloudy start to the day with some very muggy air over us and perhaps 27-28*C by Wednesday. Then as a ridge from the Azores high moves NE Weds/Thurs (to the west of the UK) some much cooler and fresher air will spread south (behind a weak cold front) giving us more sunshine at the end of the week, but a much cooler (and more pleasant) feel to things.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has remained very muggy here in the south of the UK although quite a lot of cloud has restricted the temperature to 25-27*C in the London area on the last three days. A dry cold front is working its way south at the moment (and is in the Midlands at 9pm, Weds 20th June) and will introduce much fresher and cooler weather to all of the UK by tomorrow morning. To give an indication of the thermal structure of this front, the temperature at the weather station at Rostherne (Manchester) fell from a maximum of 21*C just after noon to only 15*C at 2pm with nothing more than a spit of rain in the wind. As the cloud broke, the mercury only climbed back to 17*C later in the afternoon.

This cooler weather will be in place until Saturday and then a big warm up is expected (over most of western Europe as well) and we could be looking at heatwave conditions through most of next week. Some of the models are suggesting temperatures as high as 32/33*C, but I am hoping this is not the case.

The CET for June was 15.9*C (+2.0*C) up to the 19th and the EWR was just 13mm up to the 17th, which is only 20% of the monthly average. There is not much (if any) rain in the forecast until the end of the month.

EDIT: There was almost a frost this morning (Sat 23rd June) with a minimum of 0.2*C at both Sennybridge and Swyddffynnon, both in Wales. Big warm-up underway now.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

After the cooler end to last week it became warmer over the weekend with most of the UK enjoying sunny skies and temperatures into the low to mid-twenties. The temperature hit 27*C in London and parts of the south coast yesterday (Sunday 2th June) and will get close to the 30*C mark today as the predominantly sunny weather continues.

Most of the coming week will be warm and sunny as the high pressure currently slap bang over the country remains in situ and if anything drifts a little to our east. There is no rain in the forecast until at least the weekend and the highest temperatures will more likely be further west as a weak drift from the continent tries to develop. Forecasts for the highest temperatures have been downgraded a bit, but 30*C should be reached on a number of days and without much of a southerly influence, at least the humidity should not get too high.

The CET for June was 15.8*C (+1.8*C) up to the 24th and the EWR was 15mm up to the 21st, which is just 23% of the monthly average. The former will rise for the rest of the month whilst the latter is likely to remain where it is.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The UK has been bathed in wall to wall sunshine so far this week and with a very light easterly drift now in place, the highest temperatures are occurring in the west. Yesterday (Tues 26th June) was the warmest day of the year so far - highest temperatures were:

30.7*C at Rostherne (Gt Manchester)
30.6*C at Porthmadog (NW Wales)
30.4*C at Hawarden (NE Wales)
30.1*C at Nantwich Reaseheath Hall (Cheshire)
30.0*C at RAF Chivenor (Devon)

In contrast, the mercury topped out at 27-29*C in London and more southern counties. More of the same to come until the weekend when the models are hinting at a few showers/storms and increased humidity.

A significant (for the UK) moorland fire is currently burning to the NE of Manchester with some properties under threat. The combination of dry weather for a couple of months and the recent high temperatures have made much of the countryside very dry and vulnerable to local fires.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-44624021
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by RWood »

Manchester not living up to its reputation - probably unfairly derived from some spoilt cricket tests in the past … :smile:
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Orion »

^^ Hope that fire will be extinguished soon, Simon.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Orion, the Saddleworth Moor fire has died down but much of the underlying soil is peat based and some of this will be burning below ground and could return fire to the surface again - hence the fire services and the army are still in attendance. Another significant fire has started on Winter Hill, near Bolton (Lancs) and the latest news suggest it was arson as an arrest has been made.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... e-44644013

The hot weather has continued as the high pressure holds just to the NE of the UK keeping the hottest air in-situ over Scotland, Eire and Wales, with a slightly cooler easterly flow over much of England. Porthmadog (in NW Wales) recorded a maximum of 33.0*C on Thursday (28th June) and 32.5*C on Friday, but this site is in a sheltered bay which gets quite a fohn effect with a NE or E wind. Glasgow (Bishopton site) recorded 31.9*C on Thursday and this is probably the highest ever temperature recorded in this city - records go back to at least 1883. Shannon Airport (on the west coast of Eire) recorded a maximum of 32.0*C on Thursday and this is an all-time record for this site in a record dating back to 1944. Here on the south coast we have had wall to wall sunshine since last Sunday with daily temperatures between 25-28*C, so this has been quite a notable spell of fine weather. No immediate signs of any real changes over the next 3-5 days apart from an increase in humidity and a decrease in the comfort index!

EDIT (Saturday afternoon): We have seen this forecast for days now - it is getting a bit boring!
UK Forecast Sat 30 Jun 2018.png
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The heatwave has continued over the weekend and the seven day forecast keeps it well in place with another sunny and very warm week ahead - at least it will be a good start for the tennis at Wimbledon.

More humid air was advected NW over much of the UK on Sunday (with a low over Biscay) and this produced a few thunderstorms and an area of rain for the SW (21mm at Okehampton, on Datrmoor), but most of the UK remained dry with plenty of sunshine - although there was some Ac + Cirrus at times - which was a bit of a novelty as we have not seen a cloud for a week! Despite the increase in higher cloud it was a hot day on Sunday (1st July) with the highest temperatures being:

32.2*C at Gosport Fleetlands (Hampshire)
31.8*C at London Heathrow
31.5*C at RAF Northolt
31.1*C at Shoreham Airport + South Farnborough

Sunday night was very warm + muggy in the south with a few southern coastal stations not falling below 20*C.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by David »

Thanks for the updates Simon. A former colleague went over to London mid June and will probably be over there for about a year. Bet he's had a hard time adjusting with the hotter than usual weather going on over there!
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by spwill »

Great to see England win today :smile:
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Thanks David + spwill, it was a game that should have been settled in 90 minutes, but there are no mug teams in this World Cup and all of them can spring a surprise. Onwards to the QF's and Saturday's game v Sweden.

It has remained very warm in the UK as high pressure persists to our north and north east. A shallow low pressure just off to the SW of the UK has provided a bit more cloud at times to more southern areas with a few showers, but not much more than a mm or two. Highest temperatures for the last three days (Mon 2nd to Weds 4th July) have been 31.1*C at Bournemouth Hurn Airport, 30.1*C at Porthmadog and 29.1*C at Giants Causeway (far north tip of N Ireland) respectively.

The final CET for June was 16.1*C (+1.9*C) and the EWR was just 15mm, which is only 23% of the monthly average. The link below gives more details on the month of June and shows that plenty of locations in southern England had <10% of their monthly rainfall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/relea ... onth-stats
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It must be getting boring reading the same posts, but the dry and sunny weather has continued for most of England and Wales with only Scotland + N Ireland getting any relief from occasional incursion of Atlantic air to cool things off. Here in the south, it has been mostly wall to wall sunshine again on both Thursday and Friday (5th/6th July) with the highest temperatures on these days being 31.2*C at Coton-in-the-Elms (Derbyshire) and 31.4*C at Teddington Bushy Park (SW London) respectively. That said, on both days a few showers and thunderstorms did break out in Kent - and produced a brief flash flood in Royal Tunbridge Wells on Thursday, but they were very isolated incidents - and many areas are now getting very dry with the soil beginning to crack-up.

The forecast is for a continuation of the same with the mercury perhaps reaching 32/33*C in the south on both Saturday and Sunday. The only good news is that next week it will cool down a bit - but the dry and settled weather should continue for quite a while. The models are hinting at a bit of a breakdown in the high pressure dominance from the 15th/16th, but this is a long way off.

The CET for July was 19.7*C (+4.1*C) up to the 6th and the EWR was 1mm up to the 4th, which is 2% of the monthly average of 62mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by RWood »

Nice to at least read about sunny summer weather as winter in my locale has made a very drab start.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2018

Unread post by spwill »

Colder weather than normal here in Auckland lately, a lot of cold mornings.

I see 17-18C dps at times for parts of England so humid conditions.

England doing well again today at the World Cup. :smile:
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