NZ Weather Forum

Latest ENSO update from NOAA is for a 65% chance of El Nino next summer.

Could favour SW flows for Auckland which means a dry but cooler summer.

I hope it won't be as bad as the last El Nino which killed all the thunderstorm chances here in Canterbury over the summer season

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Wed 20/06/2018 17:51 I hope it won't be as bad as the last El Nino which killed all the thunderstorm chances here in Canterbury over the summer season

It was favourable for us, and since its disappearance there have been far more poor months than good ones.
Bring it on!.

Every autumn is the same, you hear people telling you, "its going to be a cold winter this one". Looking more like a shorter than normal winter with the westerly quarter winds returning more in Aug. I feel the same Rupert, bring it on.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Wed 20/06/2018 17:51 I hope it won't be as bad as the last El Nino which killed all the thunderstorm chances here in Canterbury over the summer season

You would expect El Nino to favour Canterbury storms but yes,it does not always happen that way. I think one thing we can assume about next summer, there won't be a repeat of the inland thunderstorms that occurred last summer.

The excessive heat with El Nino tends to be in the east from Canterbury to Gisborne to Bay of Plenty.
Central Otago can miss out on the big temps under El Nino.

Latest update from the climate prediction centre is for a 70% chance of weak to moderate El Nino this summer.

So abit cooler down here in Central Otago? What about Queenstown way? thoughts..

Andy wrote: ↑Fri 13/07/2018 07:41 So abit cooler down here in Central Otago? What about Queenstown way? thoughts..

There is a higher risk of a cloudier and cooler summer than normal for all central Otago. Queenstown should be wetter than normal with more spill over rain from the west.

NZstorm wrote: ↑Fri 13/07/2018 08:59

Andy wrote: ↑Fri 13/07/2018 07:41 So abit cooler down here in Central Otago? What about Queenstown way? thoughts..

There is a higher risk of a cloudier and cooler summer than normal for all central Otago. Queenstown should be wetter than normal with more spill over rain from the west.

Thanks for the reply , in regards for the next 3 months any indication of what to expect.??

Andy wrote: ↑Fri 13/07/2018 07:41 So abit cooler down here in Central Otago? What about Queenstown way? thoughts..

Cold.

TonyT wrote: ↑Fri 13/07/2018 12:28

Andy wrote: ↑Fri 13/07/2018 07:41 So abit cooler down here in Central Otago? What about Queenstown way? thoughts..

Cold.

Cold spring with frosts or disturbed westerlies and rain? or mix of both..

Andy wrote: ↑Fri 13/07/2018 13:34

TonyT wrote: ↑Fri 13/07/2018 12:28

Cold.

Cold spring with frosts or disturbed westerlies and rain? or mix of both..

The context was summer. Modoki El Ninos usually bring Increased southwest airflow and therefore colder than normal temperatures. Ocean temperatures may remain warmer than normal. You do the math and supply the popcorn.

If you need the popcorn Andy, i grew 40kgs of it last summer.

Whereabouts would be ocean temperatures be above average?

wembley wrote: ↑Sun 22/07/2018 18:15 Whereabouts would be ocean temperatures be above average?

https://www.facebook.com/BlueSkiesWeath ... 2689651478

Watching this one piece of the puzzle with interest. Still trending below 0.4c and below most global model expectations at this stage. Models expect the worm to start moving up...... I'll keep chewing the popcorn for now

comparing August forecast to actual, all models over estimated the August SST except for the BoM which under estimated. It's going to take a decent turn in the worm for the September SST projections to be realised.

I'm reading the probabilities have softened a little at https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -iri_plume
I think we are still looking at a weak El Nino this summer. Next analysis update in a couple of days may give some more direction.

SOI's
August -6.9
September -10

Last 30 days have been over the -7 'threshold'

Yesterday someone asked me what the summer would be like... pointed out the window at the cold wind and anti-cyclonic gloom and said 'worst case'

GraemeWi wrote: ↑Wed 17/10/2018 13:15 SOI's
August -6.9
September -10

Last 30 days have been over the -7 'threshold'

Yesterday someone asked me what the summer would be like... pointed out the window at the cold wind and anti-cyclonic gloom and said 'worst case'

The low cloud southwesterly is classic October/November. You get much more cloud burn off by Summer with that pattern and the weather is dry. I think the spoiler for northern Summer is the sub tropical low.

NIWA tropical cyclone outlook for this summer.

I'd say El Nino is more than a possibility now.

Going a bit off topic but not by much during the crap summer of 2016-17, the owner of Glendhu Bay campground just out of Wanaka said that Wanaka was more sheltered from the crap weather than other places.

It could be the case again this coming summer.