General July Weather

[Razor]

Looks to be a couple of systems of interest to kick off July in GFS at the moment. Watching brief....

[Razor]

And flop goes the modelling...

[NZstorm]

A big Jet stream modeled for the mid Tasman this weekend with a lot of lightning. Some thunderstorms should reach the west of the country Sunday. Something to watch.

[melja]

Looks like a long period of westly type weather coming, good for western ski fields but poor for the eastern ones.

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[Bradley]

Looking at the longterm modelling I'm beginning to have my doubts about any big low level snow events this winter for Christchurch/Canterbury, going on 5 years now since Christchurch had snow settling in the city, after the 3 events in July and August 2011 and June 2012 everyone became a little spoilt I think and expected an event like that every 2-3 years

[Dean.]

We had 3-4 cm two years ago

[melja]

With climate change I think it will become a thing of the past.

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[tich]

Snow did settle in city August 2015 one night, but turned to rain a few hours later and had all melted by the morning.

[03Stormchaser]

Looking at the longterm modelling I'm beginning to have my doubts about any big low level snow events this winter for Christchurch/Canterbury, going on 5 years now since Christchurch had snow settling in the city, after the 3 events in July and August 2011 and June 2012 everyone became a little spoilt I think and expected an event like that every 2-3 years

The less snow we get the better, its not much more than an inconvenience!

[Rogue]

Looking at the longterm modelling I'm beginning to have my doubts about any big low level snow events this winter for Christchurch/Canterbury, going on 5 years now since Christchurch had snow settling in the city, after the 3 events in July and August 2011 and June 2012 everyone became a little spoilt I think and expected an event like that every 2-3 years

The less snow we get the better, its not much more than an inconvenience!

Bloody Grinch haha

[03Stormchaser]

The less snow we get the better, its not much more than an inconvenience!

Bloody Grinch haha

Haha I just dont understand the fascination with it here, the city is obsessed with it.

[NZstorm]

Tomorrows weather system looks to largely duck south of Auckland.

GFS rainfall accumulation for the first 2 weeks of July.

[Richard]

Its gone from a guarantee of getting at least one to two snowfalls a year to nowadays wondering if this winter will bring snow.

[spwill]

The polar systems this year have had a lot of southwesterly flow but you don't have to have the big polar system for low level snow in Canterbury, just a case of the right ingredients lining up which they will do again at some stage in the future , it is random thing, it can happen in September.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Antarctica surface temperatures dropping like a stone now. Stratospheric polar vortex looking very strong.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 08,-82.628

Analysing closely each day on any significant zonal winds changes developing from 10 to 50 hPa. No signs at the moment but when it shifts, this will be a powerful polar pulse equatorward.

[TonyT]

Antarctica surface temperatures dropping like a stone now. Stratospheric polar vortex looking very strong.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 08,-82.628

Analysing closely each day on any significant zonal winds changes developing from 10 to 50 hPa. No signs at the moment but when it shifts, this will be a powerful polar pulse equatorward.

Longer range modelling has been suggesting a "well mixed up" Southern Hemisphere for much of July, with plenty of low pressure systems around and about, and the westerlies taking a back seat. This would mesh with the idea of wavy jetstreams which would be the consequence of the strong polar pulse you are looking for.

[Chris W]

Keeping an eye on the weekend from today's BOM Access output.

[Richard]

Nice warm weekend coming up by the look of it.

[Rogue]

convergence.jpg

Interesting cumulus and shower development on the southerly change this afternoon, would have been interesting to watch

[Chris W]

Nice warm weekend coming up by the look of it.

In that case, from just after it. Potentially given the GFS and Metvuw, Monday through Thursday next week there is a strong and very cold southerly pulse.

[Razor]

Looking at the longterm modelling I'm beginning to have my doubts about any big low level snow events this winter for Christchurch/Canterbury, going on 5 years now since Christchurch had snow settling in the city, after the 3 events in July and August 2011 and June 2012 everyone became a little spoilt I think and expected an event like that every 2-3 years

Snow fell on July 11th last year. I know this well as my wife had a baby that day and I drove home from Lincoln to ChCh in heavy settling snow that night. Woke up the next morning with enough on the lawn for the kids to make a wee snowman

[Razor]

Heading over to Moana on the West Coast this weekend. looks like a couple of vigourous frontal systems pushing in over there, might see some action weather!

[TonyT]

Heading over to Moana on the West Coast this weekend. looks like a couple of vigourous frontal systems pushing in over there, might see some action weather!

The rain will be that heavy you wont see a thing! You'll smell the wet socks though...

[David]

Metservice's July outlook:

High pressure prevails this week, before northwesterly gales kick in this weekend. Stormy southwesterlies and low pressures dominate next week (week two).Week three (16-22 July) should see some quieter weather, with high pressure moving briefly across the country. Cooler south to southeasterly winds are signalled to return across the North Island at the end of the month, but with lower confidence.
Temperature-wise, expect the weeks to continue to yo-yo. This week is forecast to run rather mild across the South Island and eastern North Island. In contrast,week two stands out as much colder than usual nationally, while week four is signalled as unusually cold over the North Island. Overall, most of the North Island is predicted to see a colder than usual July, except for Wairarapa,Gisborne, Hawke's Bay (near average temperatures). Above average July temperatures are forecast for the West Coast South Island, as well as for Central Otago and Southland. Elsewhere in the South Island, expect a typical July temperature regime.
Due to the wide mixture of weather maps expected this month, July rainfall totals average out as near normal, although the week-to-week looks anything but.The exceptions are Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay and Gisborne (below normal July totals),and the West Coast South Island (above normal totals).

Bottom Line:
A colder than usual July for most of the North Island, except for the east coast. A mild July for the West Coast South Island, Central Otago and Southland. Elsewhere, near average temperatures likely. Wetter than normal for the West Coast, drier than normal along the eastern North Island. Near normal July rainfall totals elsewhere.

[Dean.]

Nice warm weekend coming up by the look of it.

In that case, from just after it. Potentially given the GFS and Metvuw, Monday through Thursday next week there is a strong and very cold southerly pulse.

West/Southwest flow...cold but dry for this area