General July Weather

[SnwAddct]

Little bit quiet with the weather at the moment isn't it.

Heading down to Queenstown for 5 days on the 23rd of August so hoping for a few more top ups at the southern lakes ski fields..

[melja]

Winter not really throwing much at us in these parts this year, is a growing trend tho.

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[spwill]

June was the coldest month here for a few years.

[Richard]

Winter not really throwing much at us in these parts this year, is a growing trend tho.

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Yes three easy winters in a row especially this one so far , does make you wonder

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, the frost went off rather quickly mid-morning and it got up to 16C here. Not much wind and you could feel the heat in the sun Even had the conservatory windows open

[TonyT]

Winter not really throwing much at us in these parts this year, is a growing trend tho.

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Yes three easy winters in a row especially this one so far , does make you wonder

The cold of May was trying, and the gloominess of the first two weeks of June also. Most people I talk to say its felt like a cold winter (thats the colder day time maximums due to the cloud).

[melja]

No way it's been a cold winter round the greater chch area, very little hard frosts, very few cold windy days, and very few cold snowy outbreaks.
Sure the AVG monthly temps might show a different picture but let's not let a few weeks gloomy weather define winter.

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[NZstorm]

GFS is pointing to a thunderstorm chance for western North Island Thursday.

GFS still on track for some thunder over the west and upper North Island tomorrow pm.
500mb temp -24C, surface dp 12C in advance of a shortwave.

[Richard]

Increased winter cloudiness for Canterbury must push the over all AVG monthly temps above normal, because the daytime highs are not a lot different whither its clear or cloudy,maybe one to two deg, but night time lows could be anything up to 8 deg different.

Every year that ive lived here we would get a -8 or -9, but 2016 we only had a -6deg, 2017 -3.5deg and this year so far -4.7, and given that we've also had higher early June sunshine hours than the Canterbury plains it has been a easy winter so far

[Dean.]

Been a mild winter for the high country farmers around these parts,sunnier than down on the plains and a lack of southerly storms.This time last year they were under a foot of snow.

[David]

Slow moving showers today. Been raining in Howick for at least an hour now, but dry in Parnell so far today.

[Bradley]

Increased winter cloudiness for Canterbury must push the over all AVG monthly temps above normal, because the daytime highs are not a lot different whither its clear or cloudy,maybe one to two deg, but night time lows could be anything up to 8 deg different.

Every year that ive lived here we would get a -8 or -9, but 2016 we only had a -6deg, 2017 -3.5deg and this year so far -4.7, and given that we've also had higher early June sunshine hours than the Canterbury plains it has been a easy winter so far

Speaking to a farmer last weekend who said that alot of old timers around the place said recently at a meeting that the conditions this winter so far has been very similar to 1992 (apart from the cold temperatures which the winter of 1992 was known for obviously) so there were a few saying it wouldn't be surprising at all if there was something quite large in mid to late August for the plains and banks peninsula...

[melja]

Could well be, but its hardly going to define this winter as cold though.
3 days this month 18C or over and today hit 17C in Rangiora and the next 10 or so days look uneventful as well.

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[Nev]

Slow moving showers today. Been raining in Howick for at least an hour now, but dry in Parnell so far today.

Yeah, very hit and miss. Managed another 14mm here between 2pm and 3:30pm, in what has otherwise been a fairly pleasant day so far.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, the frost went off rather quickly mid-morning again and it got up to 13.8C here. Not much wind and you could feel the heat in the sun. Even had the conservatory windows open.
Spent today in shirt sleeves in the garden chopping out a boring camellia tree to replace it with a cercidiphyllum japonicum tree, which has lovely autumn leaves
Wall to wall sunshine yesterday and today and looks like the same tomorrow with hardly any wind.

[Cyclone Tracy]

All quite vanilla flavoured on the models in the troposphere but current observations are getting interesting. 4.2c + swing on the surface of Antarctica in the last 11 days and the stratospheric polar vortex is losing a bit of shape.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/07/1 ... 72,-40.283

Long wave trough is ballooning into SE OZ currently, giving the Aussies some westerly conveyor belt action.

I think something big is brewing for late July / early August … For now, I'll keep observing and chewing the popcorn

[TonyT]

Long range modelling is suggesting low pressures over and around NZ in the last few days of the month and first week or so of August, then weaker low pressures near northern NZ in the second week of August. I suspect this will be a rather wet and cloudy time for much of the country, but no sign of any significantly cold (or warm) outbreaks - at this stage.

[Richard]

Speaking to a farmer last weekend who said that alot of old timers around the place said recently at a meeting that the conditions this winter so far has been very similar to 1992 (apart from the cold temperatures which the winter of 1992 was known for obviously) so there were a few saying it wouldn't be surprising at all if there was something quite large in mid to late August for the plains and banks peninsula...

But the 92 winter stated early with cold weather kicking in during April then the first of the two major snowfalls in June, this winter is nothing like 92

[Dean.]

Stunning day in Akaroa today,tee shirt weather in the sun

[NZstorm]

Next few days look mild for the country.

Daytime heating will be a player in today's thunder chance over Auckland region. Would be nice if we could get some lengthy sunny spells although that could be wishful thinking.

[RWood]

Speaking to a farmer last weekend who said that alot of old timers around the place said recently at a meeting that the conditions this winter so far has been very similar to 1992 (apart from the cold temperatures which the winter of 1992 was known for obviously) so there were a few saying it wouldn't be surprising at all if there was something quite large in mid to late August for the plains and banks peninsula...

But the 92 winter stated early with cold weather kicking in during April then the first of the two major snowfalls in June, this winter is nothing like 92

Yes - autumn 1992 was exceptionally cold. In my area winter temperatures were near average but September and October were cold, with only a brief respite in Novmeber before another run of cool months.

[Richard]

And after the June 92 snowfall inland areas of Canterbury had long runs of extreme frosts, one farm i helped out pulling sheep from metre deep snow had -18deg that morning i was there, the Waitohi a fast flowing alluvial river was close to freezing over completely apart from the center of the rapids, felt like we were in somewhere like Siberia. That was one hell winter having spent most of it working up in the high country.

[melja]

Just looking at MS Alexandra stats for the last 30 days shows how kind this winter has been so far ,13 days with a max 10C or higher and most frosts only around -1 or -2

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[Bradley]

Speaking to a farmer last weekend who said that alot of old timers around the place said recently at a meeting that the conditions this winter so far has been very similar to 1992 (apart from the cold temperatures which the winter of 1992 was known for obviously) so there were a few saying it wouldn't be surprising at all if there was something quite large in mid to late August for the plains and banks peninsula...

But the 92 winter stated early with cold weather kicking in during April then the first of the two major snowfalls in June, this winter is nothing like 92

These farmers are out at Banks Peninsula so no doubt the weather on the plains differed to what they experienced in the lead up to the August 92' event, again they weren't referring to temperatures in the similarities, more like SST's, cloud cover, precipitation etc I'm guessing...just repeating what I heard

[TonyT]

But the 92 winter stated early with cold weather kicking in during April then the first of the two major snowfalls in June, this winter is nothing like 92

These farmers are out at Banks Peninsula so no doubt the weather on the plains differed to what they experienced in the lead up to the August 92' event, again they weren't referring to temperatures in the similarities, more like SST's, cloud cover, precipitation etc I'm guessing...just repeating what I heard

The 91/92 summer was a strongish El Nino, and 92 lead into a neutral 92/93 summer which tended to weak La Nina but never got going. So a very different set up to what we have globally today. However, the colder than normal months RWood mentions could well be a feature of our coming spring/early summer if we tend towards a weak Modoki El Nino this year (not locked in at this stage, but the most likely of the cards on the table).

There is currently a good battle going on in the sub tropics between trades and an MJO pulse which could generate a westerly wind burst, which could well be the decider in whether we push into Nino in the next few months, or stay wobbling around the neutral zone.