General July Weather

[spwill]

Just looking at MS Alexandra stats for the last 30 days shows how kind this winter has been so far ,13 days with a max 10C or higher and most frosts only around -1 or -2

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The South Island has been warmer than average this July, the North Island around average. Watch for some cold weather next week.

[Richard]

Mount Pinatubo blowing its top in June 15 1991 had a major effect on seasons the followed also.

[Bradley]

Mount Pinatubo blowing its top in June 15 1991 had a major effect on seasons the followed also.

Yes that dropped global temperatures by 0.5C in the few years afterwards, that small decline in temperatures could have made all the difference in Christchurch getting 30cm of snow or hardly any in the August event...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Apparently there were some thunderstorms up north according to Daniel on TV.
Couldn't of been much as no reports on here?

[jamie]

How many decent high pressure systems have we had this winter. 1 to 2? There seems to be a big absence of them so farm. The next 10 days looks warmish and wet across the country. In other words more of what we have already had so much of.


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[David]

Nothing of interest eventuated in the Auckland area today from what I could see. Not even 1mm of rain in Howick

[GraemeWi]

There were some great looking winter CBs out to the west / northwest of Auckland during the afternoon yesterday, produced only a couple of light showers out my way.

[spwill]

There were some cloud build ups yesterday, this Cb over the Hunua area SE of here. Isolated thunderstorms Waikato and BOP.

[SnwAddct]

Last couple GFS runs have suggested some big falls for Canterbury ski fields Sunday - Tuesday..

Capture.PNG

[Bradley]

Interesting in tonight’s run that EC now has snow down to 100m on Thursday for Canterbury, only a few cms but still quite a surprise

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The Tasman Sea is going off according to the lastest Blitz
Best I've seen for a while. No doubt Auckland will get them

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A few flashes to the west this evening driving home along Thompsons Track after attending a funeral in Christchurch, sadly dwindling away thanks to global warming or climate change whatever you want to call it.

[Richard]

A few flashes to the west this evening driving home along Thompsons Track after attending a funeral in Christchurch, sadly dwindling away thanks to global warming or climate change whatever you want to call it.

[Richard]

Lovely clear sky this morning after receiving 10 mil of rain over night, winds have died down too.

[Nev]

Some fairly high gusts around southern and central NZ yesterday evening...

Highest Gusts (km/h) ℅ MetService for July 21
135 .. Le Bons Bay
124 .. Waiouru
124 .. Secretary Island
119 .. Brothers Island
117 .. Stephens Island
111 .. Kelburn, Wellington
109 .. Castlepoint
107 .. Ngawi
100 .. Hokitika Aero
94 ... Wellington Aero
93 ... Cape Turnagain
93 ... Roxburgh
91 ... Cape Campbell
91 ... Westport Aero
91 ... Haast
85 ... Mana Island
83 ... Stratford Mount
83 ... Ashburton Aero
83 ... Mount Cook Aero
81 ... Nelson Aero
80 ... Kaikoura
80 ... Timaru Aero
80 ... Nugget Point

[Orion]

This morning observed a few branches down under trees in the Ashburton Domain: guessed the wind has been stronger than usual. It certainly sounded strong late yesterday.

[Cyclone Tracy]

A few big models now showing a large upper cold breach over the Tropics in around 8 to 9 days

[tich]

Looks pretty dark to west of Chch. (patches of blue on radar) Metservice has low risk of thunder for coastal Canterbury today.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Some weak Cu going up here at the moment.

[snowykiwi]

Had a brief heavy hail shower in Methven township

[Skywatcher]

Also had a heavy shower of small hail here. Looks black to the south.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Lots of Cu development going on down here at the moment. Will post pictures later.
Here are some of the pictures.

[Cyclone Tracy]

EC, UKMet and GFS are becoming quite volatile, trying to compute the flow on effects from the upcoming cold breach in the tropics this weekend. Fascinating to now watch how individual models comprehend the tropical disturbance. So far, from when the butterfly flapped its wings in the stratosphere a week ago, it has had all the ingredients of an upcoming major bomb cyclone in the region. We'll probably know if it will all come together by this time next week IMO.

[Chris W]

BOM, GFS and ECM all manage to keep the coldest air away whilst the latter two are bringing that nasty-looking low early next week. Volatile is definitely the word for the outputs CT!

[Bradley]

EC, UKMet and GFS are becoming quite volatile, trying to compute the flow on effects from the upcoming cold breach in the tropics this weekend. Fascinating to now watch how individual models comprehend the tropical disturbance. So far, from when the butterfly flapped its wings in the stratosphere a week ago, it has had all the ingredients of an upcoming major bomb cyclone in the region. We'll probably know if it will all come together by this time next week IMO.

With the MJO also predicted to take a significant drop into negative territory over the next few weeks do you think August is ripe for a setup for something major to happen CT?