General August Weather

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 31/07/2018 16:54

A westerrlie start for the month?
I wonder what the rest of the month will be like?

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 31/07/2018 17:46

UKMet run 3107 00Z today is warming to a large moisture rich convergence zone for parts of Upper NI, Coromandel or BOP this weekend. Others not on board yet but UKM has been onto this for 24 hours now. That will cause quite a few issues if it verifies.

David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 01/08/2018 16:46

There's been some quite punchy cumulus around Auckland today. This one looked like it was developing a pileus cap, at about 4.15pm.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Fri 03/08/2018 14:15

All the main models are painting a big wet target around Gisborne and BOP in the next 48 hours. MS going for 180 to 230mm in the warning this morning. Watching with interest on where exactly the trough stalls, there could be some big downgrades or upgrades if it wiggles east or west from the current projected location.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 04/08/2018 07:05

Bit surprised to wake top such steady rain this morning. Going for a run over Mt Herbert this morning, hope it clears swiftly

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 04/08/2018 10:23

Yet its mostly a sunny day here, can see the high cloud moving down the coast

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sat 04/08/2018 11:30

Has been a nice sunny day here in Rangiora too since day break.

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tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 04/08/2018 16:57

Razor wrote: ↑Sat 04/08/2018 07:05 Bit surprised to wake top such steady rain this morning. Going for a run over Mt Herbert this morning, hope it clears swiftly

Nothing in St Albans. (though a few days ago the forecast was for several wet days in Chch)

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 04/08/2018 17:56

Further shift of the rain to the west with latest forecasts. Originally looked like western BOP then models shifted to east cape and east coast NI. Now we are looking like central BOP and western BOP again. Hope we don’t get too much here.

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Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sat 04/08/2018 18:32

Fog moving into Ashburton at present.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Sat 04/08/2018 20:08

Looking at the current radar, the near stationery front around the NI has definitely moved further north west than models had anticipated. Showers are now just east of Great Barrier Island. Parts of the Upper NI including Auckland might get wet tomorrow depending on how this new surface low behaves.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 04/08/2018 20:50

Just come back from Mt. Cook where the cloud cleared away this morning to become a nice sunny day up there. Foggy or misty coming back to Geraldine.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 04/08/2018 21:11

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Sat 04/08/2018 20:08 Looking at the current radar, the near stationery front around the NI has definitely moved further north west than models had anticipated. Showers are now just east of Great Barrier Island. Parts of the Upper NI including Auckland might get wet tomorrow depending on how this new surface low behaves.

Will be really interesting to see how it develops. Metservice saying tomorrow will be a mostly fine day in Auckland but their 3 day model shows some rain at times

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sun 05/08/2018 06:41

NZ Thunderstorm Soc - beautiful photo!

Foggy and about 1deg. C here.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 05/08/2018 07:30

Thin layer of fog here and -2deg

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 06/08/2018 07:13

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sat 04/08/2018 20:50 Just come back from Mt. Cook where the cloud cleared away this morning to become a nice sunny day up there. Foggy or misty coming back to Geraldine.

Very nice shot - terminal lake looks bigger than ever.

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Mon 06/08/2018 07:35

Looks like we are getting into another blocking pattern with persistant rain events for the north. { just when things were looking back to normal]Tauranga will get 3 or 4 days non stop rain this week. aaaahhhh

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 06/08/2018 12:36

A decent rain would be handy here now seeing its not rained properly for over a month.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 06/08/2018 12:54

I'm picking that given chch I think is already over it annual rainfall it could be slim pickings.

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Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 07/08/2018 13:31

Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 07/08/2018 14:38

Lovely spring like day in Rangiora, just hit 19.6 C with a light northerly.

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TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 07/08/2018 15:37

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.

One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.

Cyclone Tracy · Unread post by **Cyclone Tracy** » Tue 07/08/2018 18:46

TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 15:37
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.

Yes, interesting point. At the moment, maybe it’s the vigorous west to SW flow around the equinox that could change the SST trend. It’s certainly looking like an aggressive period from the southern ocean based on some longer term models.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 07/08/2018 18:58

TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 15:37
Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.

Am I missing something or does NOAA on the attached link forecast warmer then average SST anamolies tight into next year, not cooler SST?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e3Sea.html

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 07/08/2018 19:19

Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 18:58
Am I missing something or does NOAA on the attached link forecast warmer then average SST anamolies tight into next year, not cooler SST?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e3Sea.html

It does, but by the look of that DJF map which has warm just about everywhere, I wouldn't trust it. And usually dont.

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