General August Weather

[mikestormchaser]

No instability in North Canterbury today

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Sorry I meant tomorrow afternoon! "Tuesday" Not today, low risk I'd say

[Chris W]

Couldn’t have been more stable in Amberley, lovely day. Haven’t paid much attention to tomorrow.

GFS backing off a little for the coming weekend but going for it with the cold air after that. EC is more bullish with the cold air. Got to be something of a trend now, whatever the specifics and no doubt many changes to come between runs this and next week. Could get very windy from the north west and/or south.

Just 4.2mm of rain in August for Chch aero at present.

[JP.]

Rather quiet for southern lakes resorts for this time of year. Heading down for a holiday in 2 weeks and was hoping to see a decent burst of fresh snow by now..

I'm currently in Queenstown, have been here for the last week. Coronet and Remarkables are making the best of a bad situation, even only having 100cm at the peaks.

Heading to Wanaka on Thursday to have a look at Cardrona & Treble cone.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Surface barometer here dropping like a stone.
Could be interesting up north tomorrow. Auckland again.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tasman low starting to show signs of cyclogenesis. All models believing a moderate deepening into the high 980’s hPa. It might spin into the Cook strait. The wrap around westerly into the upper NI tomorrow afternoon looks a little vigorous. Light rain so far here, looking heavier around Northland now.

[Richard]

Noticed yesterday clouds of pollen blowing out of the Radiata pines, 20 years ago that would happen a late Sep early Oct, another sign of climate change.

[tunster]

I like the general idea he's come up with. It will be a struggle in the Southern Hemisphere more so than the NH.
I do wonder if he can explain his work in layman's terms though. Probably trying to read his journal on night shift was a bad idea but it's written in post-grad terminology which renders it out of reach for many people (I mean *real* understanding of what he's doing).
Another thing I couldn't work out is why, of all fields, he's producing Lifted Index? That strikes me as a very strange field to be interested in at very long range - not only is it not particularly useful or interesting in isolation but it has so many dependencies that it has a higher chance of being wrong than simpler fields like GH.

Strangely worded post for this forum Tunster, almost sounds like you intended this to be an email to one of your colleagues in MS? Nice to know MS takes such a keen interest in the views expressed on our little forum.

It was intended for the forum. By "he" I mean the chap that created the output (at consonantantchaos). The methodology sounds interesting but I really wish it could be described in a less technical way.

[tunster]

@Tunster, I don’t think your message was for me but all good. I used the LI index as a trend example as we head closer to the warm season convection cycle, obviously it can’t be taken serious this far out but the instability has remained on the trend over an extended period of time (Daily for 2 weeks) around the equinox.


8mm overnight here, best drop for a couple of weeks. Sun out, grass is starting to grow again.

I was just commenting on the methodology of the person who made the charts. He's set a high barrier for understanding what he's doing! Which is a shame because it's so interesting.

[Cyclone Tracy]

10mm overnight, baro dropped to 997.8 back to 998.5. Now its the calm before the westerlies arrive in a few hours

Looks like the low level circulation centre is going to move between New Plymouth and the Cook strait going on the sat pic.

[Orion]

Noticed yesterday clouds of pollen blowing out of the Radiata pines, 20 years ago that would happen a late Sep early Oct, another sign of climate change.

I'm sure I used to observe this happening in August/Sept. at Mayfield.
Can picture in mind's eye, puddles coated with yellow pollen, plum-blossom in the background, and early lambs.

People observed the pollen around Christchurch just after the earthquake in 2010 and had to have it explained to them it wasn't caused by sulphur

Spring flowers in my own garden this year seem about a fortnight ahead of what I've been used to here over the past five years.

[Richard]

The Plums and Wattles seems to be about the same time, its the Radiata pines much earlier now, being near to the Balmoral forest weve seen green clouds of it coming off area.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Wind picking up here and 998.9 hPa and falling slowly. Harbour bridge gusting around 80 km/h

Okato, just south of New Plymouth now has multiple obs below 990 hPa. Okato town is sitting on around 988 hPa. The centre is still offshore indicating it could be deeper than models projected.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Nice vigorous WSW here now. Interesting 2pm sat and water vapour pics with obs. Dry mid levels around the centre but it's NW quadrant is showing reasonable moisture and will sling shot some robust heavy showers into the central and parts of upper NI this evening I would say.

[melja]

No rain what so ever here in Rangiora.

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[Richard]

Same here, what was forecast of about 8-10mm has turned out to be nil, only 3.2mm this month so far

[Nev]

16mm here so far since Monday evening. Calmer this morn after yesterday's strong winds.

Highest Gusts (km/h) ℅ MetService for Aug 14
120 .. White Island
104 .. Cape Reinga
98 ... Port Taharoa
96 ... Mamaku Radar
94 ... Stratford Mount
94 ... Manganui Ski Area
91 ... Auckland Aero
89 ... Okahu Island
87 ... Golden Valley (Waihi)
80 ... Mokohinau Island
78 ... Whangaparaoa
78 ... Hicks Bay
78 ... Waiouru

[Thunder081]

On this day 7 years ago it snowed in Wellington!! and in many other north island towns as well

P8150725.JPG

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[Nev]

Nice funnel-cloud video and pic caught in the Nelson area around 3:15pm yesterday.
Comment from the videographer:

Certainly , as the video hints at the end there it was a tall thin structure, which lasted roughly 5 minutes, I caught this as it was powering up. As my line of site was obstructed by a hill I can't confirm if there was a touch down. But from what I could see eventually that whole spin was hundreds of metres in length, could have brushed a few leaves, I'll never know.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/new ... mea-plains

[Chris W]

GFS and EC both still going for cold for much of next week, Monday through Thursday is worth keeping an eye on. BOM likes a cut-off low for the weekend.

[SnwAddct]

GFS and EC both still going for cold for much of next week, Monday through Thursday is worth keeping an eye on. BOM likes a cut-off low for the weekend.

I'm heading down to Queenstown next Thursday, was pretty excited until the moisture for that area disappeared, the big fat high that follows looks good though. Still a long way out and anything could change..

[cbm]

On this day 7 years ago it snowed in Wellington!! and in many other north island towns as well

P8150725.JPG

P8150727.JPG

Yes. Amazed some people seem to already be starting to forget that event, or be a bit unsure of when it was. It was the snow event of a lifetime for the North Island, outside of the central plateau.

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[Bradley]

Big upgrade with EC overnight for 30-50mm of rain for Canterbury next Tuesday-Friday and also low level snow, a few cms down to 200m The popcorn has been brought out once again

[SnwAddct]

Big upgrade with EC overnight for 30-50mm of rain for Canterbury next Tuesday-Friday and also low level snow, a few cms down to 200m The popcorn has been brought out once again

Haha yeah GFS went from 5mm over southern lakes area to 40mm for the Monday - Wednesday period. Rather ironic, usually we take a week snow trip to Ruapehu which is having an amazing snow year, except for the broken lift from the Avalanche. This year we are headed to Queenstown for skiing and its been rather quiet so safe to say the last couple runs have got me excited again..

[Orion]

On this day 7 years ago it snowed in Wellington!! and in many other north island towns as well

P8150725.JPG
P8150727.JPG

Adding this YouTube link just for nice, even though off-topic

[melja]

Lovely afternoon with puff's of NW coming through Rangiora, what a fantastic winter.

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